Brexit discussion

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by arcimedes

Just a thought. How many Irish living in the UK voted for Brexit? Somebody must have done a survey.

Well none, if they're Irish (Republic of) they wouldn't have got a vote.

Originally Posted by Mr K

Well none, if they're Irish (Republic of) they wouldn't have got a vote.

That is a non-valid statement...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36316467

As a hangover from the days of empire, when so-called "British subjects" were included in the parliamentary franchise, Commonwealth citizens resident in the UK without British nationality retain the right to vote in elections.
Estimates based on the 2011 census put the number of Commonwealth citizens eligible to vote in the forthcoming referendum at between 894,000 and more than 960,000.

They join Irish citizens as the only non-Brits allowed to vote in what David Cameron has called a "once in a generation" decision.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Hugh

That is a non-valid statement...

Are you a Cyberman in disguise Hugh

In that case suspect they voted to Remain (if they've any sense !) The residents of Gibraltar certainly made their feelings known.

[jonbxx]

That is ia really good question - how did non-UK voters vote, especially the Irish. I have been doing some digging with little success. I found this link - https://www.qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf...,728121,en.pdf on voting patterns in orthern Ireland but that is more identity than where people were born. 87% of people who identify themselves as Irish voted Remain in that study.

There's the Ashcroft polls as shown here - http://researchbriefings.files.parli...9/CBP-7639.pdf for all non-UK born voters. The data is on page 22 (for statistics fans, the R2 value was 0.35 so not a hugely strong correlation)

One of the benefits of a secret ballot.

[Carth]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

87% of people who identify themselves as Irish voted Remain in that study.

So my master plan isn't so far fetched after all


. . . *looks at the Isle of Wight and grins mischievously*

Brexit bill has been agreed. €45-€55 million but it’s been fudged so that the UK can say it’s toward the lower end of the scale and the EU towards the higher end. The EU were looking for €60 million whereas we started at about €20 million.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Damien

Brexit bill has been agreed. €45-€55 million but it’s been fudged so that the UK can say it’s toward the lower end of the scale and the EU towards the higher end. The EU were looking for €60 million whereas we started at about €20 million.

Do you mean billion, slight difference !!?? That's a lot of money, and a lot more than nothing, that some swivel eyed loons claimed.

We’re spending €50 billion on Brexit. Let’s spend it on the NHS instead.

Seriously though I don’t care that much. These figures aren’t that much in the scale of government budgets. If leaving the EU costs 1% of GDP a year over several years then that would cost us a lot more. If it increased GDP by 1% over several years then it would pay for itself. Obviously the increase doesn’t go right into the government coffers but still...

---------- Post added at 18:23 ---------- Previous post was at 18:22 ----------

Also I imagine the bill is spread across several years. Still a lot but like the £350 million figure a bit silly.

---------- Post added at 18:27 ---------- Previous post was at 18:23 ----------

Downing Street is denying it

---------- Post added at 19:04 ---------- Previous post was at 18:27 ----------

https://www.ft.com/content/cabf22e2-...a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Damien

We’re spending €50 billion on Brexit. Let’s spend it on the NHS instead.

Seriously though I don’t care that much. These figures aren’t that much in the scale of government budgets. If leaving the EU costs 1% of GDP a year over several years then that would cost us a lot more. If it increased GDP by 1% over several years then it would pay for itself. Obviously the increase doesn’t go right into the government coffers but still...

---------- Post added at 18:23 ---------- Previous post was at 18:22 ----------

Also I imagine the bill is spread across several years. Still a lot but like the £350 million figure a bit silly.

---------- Post added at 18:27 ---------- Previous post was at 18:23 ----------

Downing Street is denying it

---------- Post added at 19:04 ---------- Previous post was at 18:27 ----------

https://www.ft.com/content/cabf22e2-...a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

But this still does not solve the other 2 issues? The NI Border and EU citizens rights in the UK ..

On the latter, I suspect the UK will accept some level of EU Court oversight whereas the former is the real "elephant in the room"

Just out of interest, a Twitter poll has been conducted by on what people think of the Brexit bill agreed in principle tonight...



52% Think it's too much, no deal.
48% Think it's worth it to keep Access to EU trade.

Exact same percentages as the EU Referendum result itself.

Sample size is over 3,000. votes.

And yes I voted it's too much, we are bending over backwards with that bill, we need to haggle the costs down better.

Sample size doesn't really matter so much when it's a self-selecting poll. Tim Montgomerie will likely have a more politically engaged and right-leaning set of followers although I suspect the public reaction will still be equally mixed with more passionate Brexiters being angrier.

As I said before I think it's a lot of money but a sum which can be paid for or dwarfed depending of the resulting impact on the economy.

[pip08456]

I certainly agree that we should pay for whatever we committed to pre brexit vote, IMHO that is the right thing to do. I would not agree to a penny extra if it were a punitive payment that the EU wished to extract.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mick

Just out of interest, a Twitter poll has been conducted by on what people think of the Brexit bill agreed in principle tonight...



52% Think it's too much, no deal.
48% Think it's worth it to keep Access to EU trade.

Exact same percentages as the EU Referendum result itself.

Sample size is over 3,000. votes.

And yes I voted it's too much, we are bending over backwards with that bill, we need to haggle the costs down better.

But have you not said many times before in this thread that whatever we pay as long as we are out of the EU is a price worth paying Mick?.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by denphone

But have you not said many times before in this thread that whatever we pay as long as we are out of the EU is a price worth paying Mick?.

Mick's also said we shouldn't need to pay anything.... Apparently we do !
They wanted 60bn, we offered 20bn and we've ended up at 50bn; think we know who's won that one !