Brexit discussion

[jonbxx]

While it's true that the reciprocal WTO tariffs fr the EU are low, that article ignores the range. Dairy tariffs are 45.3%, animals are 20.4%, cereals 19% and vegetables over 10%. This has huge implications for the costs of food in this country and our farming industry, especially in Northern Ireland.

Source of tariff info BTW - https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/bo..._e.pdf#page=77

UK trade would not be stopped under WTO but some sectors of industry in the UK will be severely impacted

3% on final items being sold to the public is not a big deal. 3% on components, bulk imports/exports, materials etc is a much bigger deal.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Liam Halligan's piece

IMHO a much more balanced view.

But how does a balanced view fit into project fear part 2?

Originally Posted by Damien

3% on final items being sold to the public is not a big deal. 3% on components, bulk imports/exports, materials etc is a much bigger deal.

Is 3% a much bigger deal than a 20% currency fluctuation?

... and the latest from Merkel is:

German chancellor says success can be achieved ‘if we are all clear in our minds’.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Friday she was confident Britain and the rest of the EU could reach a good deal on Brexit “if we are all clear in our minds.”

“From my point of view, there are absolutely no signs that we can’t succeed,” Merkel said early Friday morning after the first day of an EU summit in Brussels.

“If we are all clear in our minds, I have absolutely no doubt that we can reach a good result,” she told reporters.

“What I find it hard to understand, when we need a result by March 2019, is why people are already talking in October 2017 about what might happen at the end of the process,” Merkel said.

The veteran chancellor said there had been progress in the Brexit talks so far but it was not sufficient to move to the second phase, on the future relationship between Britain and the EU.

“I believe, in contrast to the way things are portrayed in the British press, that things are progressing step by step,” Merkel said.

http://www.politico.eu/article/merke...e8f6-189986277

Originally Posted by Osem

But how does a balanced view fit into project fear part 2?

Not really sure an article in The Sun saying it's all fine is balanced.

Is 3% a much bigger deal than a 20% currency fluctuation?

I believe the 3% applies to everything so cross-border manufacturing will take a hit. If car companies face a 3% overhead, twice, for parts moving back and forth as the price for manufacturing in the UK then will they eat that cost?

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Damien

Not really sure an article in The Sun saying it's all fine is balanced.



I believe the 3% applies to everything so cross-border manufacturing will take a hit. If car companies face a 3% overhead, twice, for parts moving back and forth as the price for manufacturing in the UK then will they eat that cost?

Nothing balanced about The Sun although the same sentiments you can apply to quite a few other newspapers as well IMO.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Not really sure an article in The Sun saying it's all fine is balanced.



I believe the 3% applies to everything so cross-border manufacturing will take a hit. If car companies face a 3% overhead, twice, for parts moving back and forth as the price for manufacturing in the UK then will they eat that cost?

Not sure anyone's saying it's all fine but I think we've had plenty of doom and gloom since last June and that's just as unbalanced. The negativity has been incessant and largely based on very little.

They'll deal with the cost in the same way they've dealt with far larger costs as a result of currency fluctuations.

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by denphone

Nothing balanced about The Sun although the same sentiments you can apply to quite a few other newspapers as well IMO.

Except this wasn't a Sun editorial but by a respected economics commentater with a business track record:

Since 2003, Halligan has written his weekly "Economics Agenda" column in The Sunday Telegraph – which has been recognised with a British Press Award.[1][2]

Between 2007 and 2013, he was Chief Economist at Prosperity Capital Management, the world’s largest Russia/CIS-focused asset manager, controlling investments worth over $4bn for a range of institutional clients from Europe, the US and the Middle East, including pension funds, insurance companies, charities and sovereign wealth funds.

Liam Halligan wiki

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Except this wasn't a Sun editorial but by a respected economics commentater with a business track record:

Liam Halligan wiki

You forgot to add that he is an advocate of a Hard Brexit and has a book on this. Hardly a "much more balanced view" ..

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

3% on final items being sold to the public is not a big deal. 3% on components, bulk imports/exports, materials etc is a much bigger deal.

It's the non-tariff concerns that are the main issue with the EU. For supply chains, it's the delay in transport. In services which account for 80% of our exports, it's the need for those services to be regulated by the EU which Theresa May has said no to hence companies like Goldman Sachs setting up in Frankfurt and Esayjet in Spain.

---------- Post added at 13:31 ---------- Previous post was at 13:29 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

You forgot to add that he is an advocate of a Hard Brexit and has a book on this. Hardly a "much more balanced view" ..

Exactly. It would be more accurate for the OP to describe the poster as someone's views who coincide with his own.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Osem

The negativity has been incessant and largely based on very little

Wow, has you internet stopped working?

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Wow, has you internet stopped working?

Yes, Mr Osem's interweb is broken and is stuck on the 'order-order' website....

Very irritating for him I should think

[jonbxx]

While we are discussing Guido Fakes and the Order Order website, this article on previous OECD predictions was posted recently - https://order-order.com/2017/10/17/a...ous-forecasts/ on this site.

Taking this article apart, Zelo Street posted this - http://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2017...ar-busted.html . It appears there has been some very selective quoting of OECD figures.

*Disclaimer* I don't like Zelo Streets sneering attitude one bit. It is at best childish and unhelpful. However, the facts an relevant links are there once you get over this

[Ignitionnet]

Mmm yeah I've not read this thread since my previous post but will be leaving it be.

Substitute 'tweeting' for 'posting'

Originally Posted by David Allen Green

Oh, what is the point tweeting about Brexit?

Anyone with a mind knows how it is going, without commentary.

And the mindless don't care.

EU's head pains just keep on getting bigger...

Czech election latest: Europe’s "Donald Trump" WINS election in nightmare for EU

The centrist ANO (YES) movement led by populist billionaire Andrej Babis, dubbed the 'Donald Trump of Europe,' won the election on Saturday.

The former Finance Minister won by a landslide, getting 29.65 percent of the vote.

His ANO movement's decisive win shifted the country to the right.

He is now faced with the challenge of forming a coalition government with more than one of the other eight parties which achieved at least five per cent of the vote.

Speaking at his party headquarters, he said: "I believe we will build a government that will be one team.

“We want to fulfil our programme for a better life in our country."

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...-Babis-anti-EU

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Mick

EU's head pains just keep on getting bigger..
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...-Babis-anti-EU

Thought you didn't read the tabloids Mick