Post-Brexit Thread

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Seen that quoted a few times. The sub-title alone should indicate it's dicey.

Our goods exports were impacted in no small part by that we were transitioning to a services based economy. Our de-industrialisation is a policy started by Thatcher and continued by every government since, accelerated by Blair, nothing to do with the EU.

http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85905 is worth a look.

Regardless, though, we are where we are. Leaving something is far more damaging than never being in it and it will cost us profoundly if we can't get a deal.

It won't be the end of the world but we'll recover considerably more slowly after the upcoming recession if we can't get it sorted.

The BoE did not say there 'Would Be' a recession. He will cause it if there is by lowering interest rates.

---------- Post added at 06:48 ---------- Previous post was at 06:40 ----------

Originally Posted by Anypermitedroute

Same could be said about the over 55 and some of "their" views

In what way? We had nothing to build views on, it was only a trading area when we joined. Our views are only based on when the EU became a Political Union which contrary to popular belief was a lot earlier than the mid 90s.

My main point is rather then another round of "us vs them" we should explain to younger voters why things are not as simple as they currently view them as I've done with my daughter and her partner. I agree some younger voters supported remain based on non political or even wider economic reasons but as a leave voter that is fed up of people attacking my vote I think it would be hypocritical to turn round and do the same to younger voters. It's only my personal position that works for me and everyone else will do what works for them but it's time for attacks between the different sides to stop and for everyone to contribute towards the future.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

My main point is rather then another round of "us vs them" we should explain to younger voters why things are not as simple as they currently view them as I've done with my daughter and her partner. I agree some younger voters supported remain based on non political or even wider economic reasons but as a leave voter that is fed up of people attacking my vote I think it would be hypocritical to turn round and do the same to younger voters. It's only my personal position that works for me and everyone else will do what works for them but it's time for attacks between the different sides to stop and for everyone to contribute towards the future.

I agree. Yes I am the same with my vote too. I, like you, voted on experience. I watched the EU grow from a trading bloc into a political union and heading towards a United States of Europe and did not want any part of it. I warned voters in 1975 this would be the eventual outcome of the EU and was laughed at. Sure we're experiencing a little strain on the economy but we knew this was going to happen. He'll sort it out with QE so there really isn't nothing to worry about. The Markets have steadied and the £ will too. However, if the BoE are not careful they could trigger the predicted recession.

As to our youngsters, well yes, we shouldn't berate them for their votes either whatever their reasons but they really need to be educated as to what has happened to the EU since we joined, something you seem to be doing very well. I'm sure if they search the net they'll find something along those lines.

I think for many leave voters it was the experience of living through the direction change in the European project that did influence the vote far more then any of the campaign nonsense. That's also why the economic arguments didn't have the impact they were intended to have as people who were against the direction of the EU were not thinking in terms of economic consequences first although many would have considered them just not to the extent to change their vote. Plus most of us know that we were successful traders long before the EU and can be again though it will take time to reestablish ourselves as true global traders again.

That was another factor for me I felt we had become economically too EU centred at the detriment of potentially more lucrative global opportunities that we are well placed to exploit. I fully expect there to be negative economic consequences for a period up to five years but the gains that will come after that will make us more prosperous as a nation.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

The BoE did not say there 'Would Be' a recession. He will cause it if there is by lowering interest rates.

Lowering interest rates doesn't cause recession. It's monetary stimulus. The point of it is to make borrowing cheaper and credit more available to encourage businesses, especially, to borrow and invest. In the case of individuals cheaper credit increases demand.

This comes at the expense of inflation so it's a balancing act.

Originally Posted by Big Brian

He'll sort it out with QE so there really isn't nothing to worry about. The Markets have steadied and the £ will too. However, if the BoE are not careful they could trigger the predicted recession.

We're almost certain to get a recession. There is nothing the BoE can do about that. The best case is that it's a very slight recession though, it won't be anywhere near as bad as the one from a few years ago, so not pleasant but not end of days stuff.

Small drop in employment, small drop in tax revenues, government debt increasing somewhat to compensate as stabilisers kick in. Some tax rises, some spending cuts.

Running QE to infinity isn't going to happen and I'm not sure what impact you think QE would have. Depending on the form it takes it's likely to further weaken Sterling and not necessarily feed into the productive economy. Last time much of it ended up in housing and stocks.

The markets are steadier from the initial shock, nothing else. We've done the first drop on the rollercoaster, a couple of years to go yet.

If your indifference to the single market is based around that you think the shock to the economy is over and the only way is up from here check out the research that's been and is being done.

The BoE aren't doing Project Fear and aren't trying to trigger a recession. They are offering forward guidance and Project Reality. Their predictions agree with the consensus views and are middle of the road.

If they are wrong, excellent.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

We're almost certain to get a recession. .

Almost yes, if we dick about with our exit, or if the EU dick about with the negotiation and the whole things drags on for nastily for 2 years and beyond then it will be certain.

If the separation amicable, swift and sensible deals that suit both sides, it may be avoided or very short lived.

Unfortunately I can predict which of the two scenarios is most likely.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Almost yes, if we dick about with our exit, or if the EU dick about with the negotiation and the whole things drags on for nastily for 2 years and beyond then it will be certain.

If the separation amicable, swift and sensible deals that suit both sides, it may be avoided or very short lived.

Unfortunately I can predict which of the two scenarios is most likely.

It will take the 2 years just to unravel everything.

This is noteworthy in that regard.

The EU’s trade chief, Cecilia Malmström, said that negotiations on a deal with the UK could not begin until after Brexit, which would leave Britain facing years of uncertainty.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by RBMark

We really are in trouble......

So, browsing social media, various forums, YouTube ect I found some interesting things about the intelligent under 30 Remainers. Where do I start....

Some of the under 30 Remainers think the following things...

The EU created the NHS,
Britain tried to ban the sales of MILK but the EU made us keep selling it, I think this comes from the pints to litres thing.
You will now have to pay to travel around Europe by plane, train, ferry. They misunderstood the "free" movement of people.
Islam will be banned in Britain. Muslims were in Britian long before we joined the EU.
The EU give us free school meals.
The EU fund all university's. I suspect this is due to some EU funding being available.

It's all out there to have read, it's worrying lol.

[Ignitionnet]

A bit of research: interest rates will probably go down to 0.25% this month, with potentially another cut to 0.1% or 0% next month.

With that perhaps 50 billion of QE.

Those who will feel the pain from this the most are those nearing retirement and those who rely on interest income.

So get tying yourselves in to those special saver rates if at all possible.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Almost yes, if we dick about with our exit, or if the EU dick about with the negotiation and the whole things drags on for nastily for 2 years and beyond then it will be certain.

If the separation amicable, swift and sensible deals that suit both sides, it may be avoided or very short lived.

Unfortunately I can predict which of the two scenarios is most likely.

Unless we beef up our trade with the wider world asap

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

Unless we beef up our trade with the wider world asap

What did you have in mind to achieve this, remembering the legal environment?

[ntluser]

It's a pity that the EU cannot see that we have a wonderful opportunity here to reform the EU in a positive way for all countries and citizens in the EU.

Cameron's strategy of getting a better deal for just the UK makes us appear selfish and uncaring.

It would have been better to have tapped into the common problems that the EU share and come up with a group solution.

Instead Tusk gave us an unacceptable deal which Cameron could not sell to the UK public, with the EU left thinking that it was a fair deal.

Voters in the UK voted differently because each of us has a different experience of the EU and therefore we made our decision for different reasons.

As it turns out more of us appear to have more reasons to leave but it could easily have gone the other way if the missing 28% who did not vote had made their vote.

I believe if the EU is willing to accept reform for all of us and is more flexible for all of us ( and by that I mean all EU countries and all citizens) we could create an EU that 100% would want to stay in.

The EU does not need political union as we have national governments quite capable of making decisions and laws which have a common EU interest and we do not need a European army because we have NATO who have successfully protected us as best they can since 1945 and still do. If anything, we need better ways of discussing and resolving differences that do not require bullets and bombs.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

What did you have in mind to achieve this, remembering the legal environment?

Are we free to trade at will once A50 is invoked?

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

Are we free to trade at will once A50 is invoked?

No.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Lowering interest rates doesn't cause recession. It's monetary stimulus. The point of it is to make borrowing cheaper and credit more available to encourage businesses, especially, to borrow and invest. In the case of individuals cheaper credit increases demand.

This comes at the expense of inflation so it's a balancing act.



We're almost certain to get a recession. There is nothing the BoE can do about that. The best case is that it's a very slight recession though, it won't be anywhere near as bad as the one from a few years ago, so not pleasant but not end of days stuff.

Small drop in employment, small drop in tax revenues, government debt increasing somewhat to compensate as stabilisers kick in. Some tax rises, some spending cuts.

Running QE to infinity isn't going to happen and I'm not sure what impact you think QE would have. Depending on the form it takes it's likely to further weaken Sterling and not necessarily feed into the productive economy. Last time much of it ended up in housing and stocks.

The markets are steadier from the initial shock, nothing else. We've done the first drop on the rollercoaster, a couple of years to go yet.

If your indifference to the single market is based around that you think the shock to the economy is over and the only way is up from here check out the research that's been and is being done.

The BoE aren't doing Project Fear and aren't trying to trigger a recession. They are offering forward guidance and Project Reality. Their predictions agree with the consensus views and are middle of the road.

If they are wrong, excellent.

It won't be as bad but may last 2 or 3 quarters.

---------- Post added at 11:55 ---------- Previous post was at 11:43 ----------

Originally Posted by Ramrod

Are we free to trade at will once A50 is invoked?

To be honest friend I can't find the answer to this on the net. I've asked the question Can Britain trade with whomever it wants to when Article 50 is invoked?