Post-Brexit Thread

[techguyone]

It's be bloody typical if our chumps give us what will be an arguably worse deal than the one we left . I wouldn't put it past them.

[jamiefrost]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

And we won't even notice the hit. It wont be obvious, there won't be a mass exodus of banks, what there will be is when a bank opens a new office or department or replaces one it won't be here, it'll be in Dublin or frankfurt they'll move without anyone noticing. No one likes them anyway. It'll be like this Heathrow Gatwick saga whilst we mess about pandering to self interest skippol is quietly hoovering up large amounts of traffic

Passporting is not about banks moving headquarters, it's about the inability of UK banks to work within the EU, how would we not notice the loss to GDP?

J

Originally Posted by martyh

I would say the voting public are wanting freedom of movement gotten rid of and no money going to Europe ,to them that is what they voted for ,it's certainly what i voted for

Well yes, hence the problem.

To me it seems there are two options on the table now no matter what Boris is saying to win the leadership:

1. EEA - We sign up to the four freedoms, essentially single market member but with free movement. Least disruptive to the economy.
2. Trade deal - No single market access, no free movement but this option will be the worst economically

The fantasy of having the single market without migration has to be cast aside now. The new Tory leader is going to have to choose what he or she wants to deliver on. Do they want to risk hurting the economy or do they want to break the promise on migration?

Both options though allow them to say they've freed the UK from the ECJ.

[ntluser]

Originally Posted by Damien

Well yes, hence the problem.

To me it seems there are two options on the table now no matter what Boris is saying to win the leadership:

1. EEA - We sign up to the four freedoms, essentially single market member but with free movement. Least disruptive to the economy.
2. Trade deal - No single market access, no free movement but this option will be the worst economically

The fantasy of having the single market without migration has to be cast aside now. The new Tory leader is going to have to choose what he or she wants to deliver on. Do they want to risk hurting the economy or do they want to break the promise on migration?

Both options though allow them to say they've freed the UK from the ECJ.

We could as Big Brian says do private deals with those European countries that still want to deal with us but I'm guessing that most of Europe is either in the EU or in the EEA.

I suppose we might be able to do deals with countries like Switzerland and others in a similar state but would the deals be global deals covering all products or will we have to do several trade deals with each country for specific products. Germany may do a car deal with us so it can sell their cars to us and we can sell ours to them, but the deal might just be limited to cars.

The EU will no doubt have worked out that we could access the single market indirectly by simply making deals with individual countries in the EU and have probably come up with a strategy to block that.

Ordinary shoppers may still be able to access European products through agencies like Amazon who are based in the EU and who sell to the world.

There's also the issue of bank passporting which allows our banks to operate in Europe...or not!!

It's all very much in the air at the moment.

[Osem]

Honestly there's a few folks here who'd make exceptionally poor trade deal negotiators I must say...

[ntluser]

Originally Posted by Osem

Honestly there's a few folks here who'd make exceptionally poor trade deal negotiators I must say...

Hi Osem,
I think we are just debating possibilities at the moment. It could be that the EU is acting tough running a bluff but will actually cave to do a deal if push comes to shove.

We are only going on the limited info coming out of the EU at the moment. We'll only find out the truth when the negotiations start and we'll really need our poker faces to see us through.

[Ramrod]

I wonder how this would work:
Keep free movement but remove all benefits to anyone coming here.
If they have/get a job and earn sufficient wages to pay sufficient tax then they get access to the nhs. None of this council house/tax credit/child benefit to send back to Latvia etc malarkey. Come here and earn enough to support yourself because there are no hand outs if you don't.
That would probably sort the wheat from the chaff at a stroke.
Thoughts?

[Osem]

Originally Posted by ntluser

Hi Osem,
I think we are just debating possibilities at the moment. It could be that the EU is acting tough running a bluff but will actually cave to do a deal if push comes to shove.

We are only going on the limited info coming out of the EU at the moment. We'll only find out the truth when the negotiations start and we'll really need our poker faces to see us through.

Yes of course, we are doing just that but national panic doesn't assist our position around the negotiating table one little bit and people, especially the media, really need to realise that. If they want a decent deal at the end of all of this they have to play the game the right way and hold our nerve.

There's a deluge of bad news being 'hidden' within the EU right now and as it comes to light people are going to start remembering why we were so unhappy with the EU in the first place. I should be remembered that a good many of those who voted to remain weren't exactly overjoyed by the EU's track record or direction of travel, they just thought it was a slightly safer bet. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Brussels elite...

[Sherlock614]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

I wonder how this would work:
Keep free movement but remove all benefits to anyone coming here.
If they have/get a job and earn sufficieny wages to pay sufficient tax then they get access to the nhs. None of this council house/tax credit/child benefit to send back to Latvia etc malarkey. Come here and earn enough to support yourself because there are no hand outs if you don't.
That would probably sort the wheat from the chaff at a stroke.

Yes please!
The UK is like a light to a moth currently.

[nomadking]

Since when has "free movement" been a pre-condition of trade deals around the world? Trade deals are about trade.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by ntluser

The EU will no doubt have worked out that we could access the single market indirectly by simply making deals with individual countries in the EU and have probably come up with a strategy to block that.

No member of the EU can make their own trade deals with third parties. That was one of the arguments to leave, our inability to do so.

---------- Post added at 20:00 ---------- Previous post was at 19:59 ----------

Just in case anyone fancies a flutter.

When Will "Article 50" be Triggered?

https://www.skybet.com/politics/euro...event/19451469

Originally Posted by Ramrod

I wonder how this would work:
Keep free movement but remove all benefits to anyone coming here.
If they have/get a job and earn sufficient wages to pay sufficient tax then they get access to the nhs. None of this council house/tax credit/child benefit to send back to Latvia etc malarkey. Come here and earn enough to support yourself because there are no hand outs if you don't.
That would probably sort the wheat from the chaff at a stroke.
Thoughts?

IIRC there isn't a large amount of benefit money going to EU migrants. The vast majority come because they can earn a lot more here than they do at home.

Originally Posted by Osem

Honestly there's a few folks here who'd make exceptionally poor trade deal negotiators I must say...

In successful negotiations, it needs to be win-win, and give and take; if we gain, and others lose (and vice-versa), it just leads to discontent and a breakdown in negotiations...

Both sides have yet to get into the real detail but the wording from the EU was interesting in that they "would fight" to not allow the uk to trade without free movement, they are in the position to insist on it but are not using that wording. There is more going on behind the scenes right now that nobody except those involved know about and until we get a pm with a spine and invoke article 50 uncertainty will continue and I think that's what is behind David Cameron's behaviour since the referendum.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

I wonder how this would work:
Keep free movement but remove all benefits to anyone coming here.
If they have/get a job and earn sufficient wages to pay sufficient tax then they get access to the nhs. None of this council house/tax credit/child benefit to send back to Latvia etc malarkey. Come here and earn enough to support yourself because there are no hand outs if you don't.
That would probably sort the wheat from the chaff at a stroke.
Thoughts?

Seems unlikely.

http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=457
http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?langId=en&catId=849

The four main principles

You are covered by the legislation of one country at a time so you only pay contributions in one country. The decision on which country's legislation applies to you will be made by the social security institutions. You cannot choose.

You have the same rights and obligations as the nationals of the country where you are covered. This is known as the principle of equal treatment or non-discrimination.

When you claim a benefit, your previous periods of insurance, work or residence in other countries are taken into account if necessary.

If you are entitled to a cash benefit from one country, you may generally receive it even if you are living in a different country. This is known as the principle of exportability.

---------- Post added at 20:15 ---------- Previous post was at 20:08 ----------

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Both sides have yet to get into the real detail but the wording from the EU was interesting in that they "would fight" to not allow the uk to trade without free movement, they are in the position to insist on it but are not using that wording. There is more going on behind the scenes right now that nobody except those involved know about and until we get a pm with a spine and invoke article 50 uncertainty will continue and I think that's what is behind David Cameron's behaviour since the referendum.

What wording was that?

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/pr...ing-statement/

Originally Posted by EU Statement

In the future, we hope to have the UK as a close partner of the EU and we look forward to the UK stating its intentions in this respect. Any agreement, which will be concluded with the UK as a third country, will have to be based on a balance of rights and obligations. Access to the Single Market requires acceptance of all four freedoms.

Originally Posted by Donald Tusk

Leaders made it crystal clear that access to the single market requires acceptance of all four freedoms - including freedom of movement. There will be no single market a la carte.