[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[Ignitionnet]

I got this very wrong and apologise to those whose opinions I doubted. Everyone underestimated the extent to which the anti-establishment feelings of many would drive the way they voted.

The vote has set in motion a chain of events that I'm far from convinced many understood. I certainly didn't.

Let's hope that the divisions inside the UK can be healed somewhat, they are stark, and that a fair and reasonable agreement with the EU can be reached expediently when the negotiations come.

This isn't the last the UK has seen of referenda this decade.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

It's stabilised but it's the worst drop in the FTSE 250 ever and the biggest drop in any single currency ever. This isn't going to be good for people.

---------- Post added at 09:35 ---------- Previous post was at 09:33 ----------



The politicians who promised it are still there. Let's see the 5% drop in fuel bills (which isnt going amount to anything for any energy we buy outside of sterling) and the extra money for the NHS. Dan Hannan is already making it clear that people expecting immigration to drop will be disappointed.

Some say the FTSE is well overvalued and was due a correction, programmed trading also plays a large part at such times and adds to volatility This is it and anyone who thinks it won't be up/down for the foreseeable future is likely to be disappointed. Sterling being lower makes our exports cheaper - an artificially low currency is what's been keeping Germany doing well for years. There are pros and cons to all of this.

[Ignitionnet]

I'll also say that I hope this is going to be more of an adjustment back to where the UK perhaps should have been.

I'm not sure there was ever a mandate for the Maastricht or Lisbon treaties.

In the interim, of course, strap in and hold on.

[ntluser]

I don't really understand why David Cameron chose to step down because the EU Referendum result not only gave him the greatest weapon for reforming the EU but also provided a beacon of hope for all other dissatisfied voters in the other countries within the EU.

The Leave voters don't want to remain in the EU as presently organised but that is not to say that changes cannot be made, though they would have to lead to a much better deal than the one offered which was pathetic.

All EU countries could decide to give up completely any idea of forming a European Superstate and formally put that into EU rules.

They could legislate to make the national courts the supreme courts in any EU country.

They could still have freedom of movement within the EU but within limits specified by national governments, such limits to include the expulsion of criminals and other undesirable elements and limits on numbers.

We could go back to being a trading nation and the EU could dismantle some of the more expensive parts of its infrastructure.

Cameron would not have to activate Article 50 immediately. He could propose changes to make the EU more acceptable and less meddlesome.

He could point out that there is anti-EU sentiment throughout the EU and that if nothing is done the UK Brexit might be an example other countries want to follow. Better to have a really reformed EU than one that decomposes altogether.

And while he is doing all this he can dangle Article 50 over them like the Sword Of Damocles, something he could be doing for years.

In this way we could still remain in the EU complete with our sovereignty, continued access to the EU market with a lot less EU interference and expense. We could also keep the UK united with no need for independence votes.

All we have to do is delay our use of Article 50 so long as the EU reforms and is working for us and all other countries in the EU.

Only time will tell what the future holds. I just hope it holds the use of a lot of common sense.

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

I got this very wrong and apologise to those whose opinions I doubted. Everyone underestimated the extent to which the anti-establishment feelings of many would drive the way they voted.

The vote has set in motion a chain of events that I'm far from convinced many understood. I certainly didn't.

Let's hope that the divisions inside the UK can be healed somewhat, they are stark, and that a fair and reasonable agreement with the EU can be reached expediently when the negotiations come.

This isn't the last the UK has seen of referenda this decade.

The complexity of this, and the extent to which we have allowed ourselves to become knitted into the EU system, was for me a reason to vote leave. If we didn't do it today, it would have been all the harder to do it come the day our membership of the EU became absolutely intolerable.

Democracy must be exercised within the nation state. Beyond that is the realm of diplomacy. That, to me, is a kind of natural law, and if that law is transgressed for too long, the inevitable correction is all the more violent. We have acted to disentangle ourselves by deliberate choice, by democratic means, and, I believe, we are ahead of events. The EU project was too arch and clever for its own good and its end is nigh.

Here's a thought. What if it becomes clear any EU deal will be a bad one and cause negative economic effects? When do we issue article 50?

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Here's a thought. What if it becomes clear any EU deal will be a bad one and cause negative economic effects? When do we issue article 50?

I'm waiting for Juncker to tell us that the copy of Article 50 Cameron has is a cheap Romanian counterfeit so it's not valid...

[Kursk]

Originally Posted by Damien

Stock market is collapsing

European markets are taking an even greater hammering with the imminent loss of their sugar daddy.

[techguyone]

I was up all night watching this.

And was pleasantly relieved, I thought those big London boroughs would wipe out all the little gains the smaller areas were making.

This will start the cascade across Europe now, you watch. Now someone has stepped forward first, more will follow.

The EU is fatally flawed and will now (hopefully) change into something more fit for purpose.

Scotland should be careful too, as I expect they will want - and may get, another referendum for their Independance. They may get it , if for nothing else to shut them up and the neverending bitching from across the border we've seen in recent years. (I know I have lots of Scottish relatives)

I'd advise caution though, they may get what they ask for, but may not like it when they get it, if the EU does implode they may find themselves proud members of a small and meaningless club.

[RichardCoulter]

Robert Peston & John Pienaar think that the Labour Party will have a new leadership election and that a General Election will be called.

To counter the new Tory Brexit leader, the new Labour leader may offer to seek to obtain more concessions from Europe and (with or without another referendum) keep us in.

We've voted to leave and that's a first step the easiest step and now the real work begins a period of instability is to be expected as those who can profit from this will as they do anything and a rebalance of government towards getting the best deal which I don't think the current government is. Not very surprised Cameron has quit his credibility is shot and his personal approach during the campaign just doesn't make him the best person to get the deals that are needed now.

I don't think it's a time for being triumphant about the result as many in the uk didn't vote for this and the referendum has highlighted the deep divisions within the uk another aspect where a lot of work is needed. This is a decision that won't show many gains short term and most informed leavers knew that when they voted but the referendum is clear the majority want out of the EU as it is now and being honest any concessions the EU may offer now is too little too late. If the EU doesn't wake up and realise the problems that exist and the resentment that people not just in the uk but all over Europe have towards it then it is on borrowed time.

I'm glad we have voted out but not the way our country was divided or the manner of either campaign and this is also not the time for remainers to jump on every bit of bad news there will be for a few weeks with "I told you so" as that will only further the divide.

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Robert Peston & John Pienaar think that the Labour Party will have a new leadership election and that a General Election will be called.

To counter the new Tory Brexit leader, the new Labour leader may offer to seek to obtain more concessions from Europe and (with or without another referendum) keep us in.

Surely Labour are not so clueless as try to over rule a referendum are they? Could you imagine another Brexit campaign?

It would be vile, poisonous, hate filled, we do not want or need that! Not forgetting labour voters in the majority voted LEAVE!

[Escapee]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

I got this very wrong and apologise to those whose opinions I doubted. Everyone underestimated the extent to which the anti-establishment feelings of many would drive the way they voted.

The vote has set in motion a chain of events that I'm far from convinced many understood. I certainly didn't.

Let's hope that the divisions inside the UK can be healed somewhat, they are stark, and that a fair and reasonable agreement with the EU can be reached expediently when the negotiations come.

This isn't the last the UK has seen of referenda this decade.

Lots of us got it wrong, I voted out with all my heart whilst expecting the vote to go the other way. I'm just glad that people like me who thought they would be beaten got off their backsides and voted.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by techguyone

I was up all night watching this.

And was pleasantly relieved, I thought those big London boroughs would wipe out all the little gains the smaller areas were making.

This will start the cascade across Europe now, you watch. Now someone has stepped forward first, more will follow.

The EU is fatally flawed and will now (hopefully) change into something more fit for purpose.

Scotland should be careful too, as I expect they will want - and may get, another referendum for their Independance. They may get it , if for nothing else to shut them up and the neverending bitching from across the border we've seen in recent years. (I know I have lots of Scottish relatives)

I'd advise caution though, they may get what they ask for, but may not like it when they get it, if the EU does implode they may find themselves proud members of a small and meaningless club.

Yes it'll be interesting to see just how keen the SNP remains on EU membership over coming weeks/months. It's their choice, let them put their money where there mouth is if they feel trying to join the EU is going to be good for them. If they're certain it's so right let them provide a vote for independence and go for it now. Any delay will clearly indicate just how much they believe their own rhetoric.

As for what happens in the EU, I expect others to ask for referenda and it'll be interesting to see what concessions they may be offered. If the argument for not giving the UK much is that they couldn't because it'd encourage others to try their luck, well that is still the case now with any other nations who may wish to review their membership of the EU. There's no way to avoid the problem now, the best thing they could have do is to be sensible with the UK and avoided this trauma and all the likely fallout. Sadly the EU doesn't do common sense...

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by ntluser

I don't really understand why David Cameron chose to step down because the EU Referendum result not only gave him the greatest weapon for reforming the EU but also provided a beacon of hope for all other dissatisfied voters in the other countries within the EU.

Reform to try and keep us in is not going to happen. If the EU did that for us others would jump on the bandwagon.