[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[ianch99]

Some good news for Dave?

EU court rejects child benefits challenge

A challenge to the UK's right to deny some EU migrants child benefit and child tax credits has been rejected by European judges.

[Ignitionnet]

Published by the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE.

I'll just leave these here.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/DP0462.pdf

The economic arguments for immediate UK membership in EMU… are overwhelming… The UK is too small and too open to be an optimal currency area

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/about/finance.asp

The Centre current annual funding of £1.7m annual funding comes mainly from the Economic and Social Research Council (50 per cent), from the Anglo German Foundation, Department for Education, Esmée Fairbairn Foundation, Princes Trust, Rowntree Trust, the European Commission, Bank of England and from contributions from members of its Senior Business Forum.

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Part of those contracts is not to harm the reputation of the EU.

[Osem]

That headline is patent nonsense - NO negative effect on jobs, incomes and public services? We can argue about the scale of the negative effect but to suggest there is NONE is utter tosh. Tell Kent County Council that migration has had no negative effect on its ability to provide services, including ensuring the welfare of vulnerable children.

It wasn't that long ago that HMG's official advisors on migration were saying this:

Parts of Britain are "struggling to cope" with high levels of immigration that have put huge pressures on public services such as the NHS, schools and transport, the Government's official advisers have said.

A major new report by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) found immigration had caused the "composition of many local area populations to alter rapidly" and that such rapid change could lead to friction.

A spokesman for the MAC said: "The arrival of one million migrants in low-skilled jobs during the last 10 years has left local authorities struggling to cope with rapid population change."

The report also found the education system is failing to prepare children for low-skilled jobs, placing them at a disadvantage against foreign workers.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...nt-report.html

It's perfectly clear, that one of the main reasons people want out of the EU is the evidence before their eyes that mass, uncontrolled immigration is having an adverse effect on their lives, services, housing, jobs, wages etc. I'll grant you EU membership might not be having quite the same negative effect on the LSE and the authors of that report however...

[Gavin78]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Some good news for Dave?

EU court rejects child benefits challenge

this is just the start wait till after the referendum and if we remain our "special status" will soon be out the window and they will be handing out Tax Payers cash at the border as part of a welcome package.

Infact they'll probably pay for their travel to get here as well.

[Osem]

Yeah, I'm sure the authorities will be just as robust in enforcing the child benefit rules as they are in securing our borders to illegal migrants and deporting those apprehended.

Meanwhile the problem of migrants living/working here but being able to claim CB for kids not even living in the UK remains for now. What's a fairly modest sum in the UK for a couple of children has been a seriously nice earner for anyone whose family is living in Europe's poorer nations. Rule changes are in the pipeline to restrict the amounts paid to local rates but the Polish are apparently considering raising their rates which will mean the UK might still have to pay more:

A Polish plan to introduce a new £87-a-month child benefit payment could mean Britain will have to pay more under the terms of David Cameron’s EU renegotiation, experts have warned.

The new Polish scheme, which is designed to encourage more Poles to remain in the country and have larger families, could take some of the gloss off one of the key wins in Mr Cameron’s EU renegotiation package.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...n-eu-deal.html

Interestingly the Poles seem to think child benefit will have the effect of persuading people to have more children...

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/290

Solely for comparison purposes, according to the tables in the above link, the UK rate of CB for 2 kids alone is worth more than the entire household income of a single adult on minimum wage in Bulgaria and Romania, after tax and including benefits.

It'll be interesting to see if the 'loophole' is now closed for good.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by martyh

It's not snobbery at all ,it's quite simply trying to find a newspaper that will print correct facts and accurate news .The link you posted from the express is a classic example ,it was shown with very little effort to be completely inaccurate and the company that did the poll where very quick to distance themselves from the article.However if you still want to take what they print as gospel that's up to you ,does explain a few things though

---------- Post added at 10:05 ---------- Previous post was at 10:04 ----------



Despite leaves best efforts to sabotage their own campaign i still think it will be a landslide victory for leave

I admire your confidence and hope you're right but 51/49 leave will do me.

[adzii_nufc]

I don't really think I'm being offered a winning solution. All I've received the in the post is two fact leaflets from either side and I make out (maybe incorrect) a case of being damned if you do and damned if you don't. There's no side with zero negatives but I can't really get enough information without reading wall upon wall of text of arguments and counterclaims. I need simple true summaries to decide if one argument has less negatives and better positives than the other.

Thus far besides the leaftlets through the box. I've had absolutely mad fanatics bouncing around in the town centre (Newcastle) with red leave signs telling me absolutely nothing other than leave.. Then on the opposite side of the monument, the blue side doing exactly the same thing.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

On the other hand, 'Project Fear' requires there to be a genuine chance of Brexit in order to work.

I wouldn't put a bet on this now. It's on a knife-edge.

Great drama for sure. I foresee docu-dramas being made about all this.

---------- Post added at 10:08 ---------- Previous post was at 10:06 ----------



I hope not. This is too important to be decided by silly things, be they jumping on the bandwagon, roaming charges or whatever else.

This ends up being decided by stupidity it undermines the case for more direct democracy as it gives the impression morons decide policy.

EDIT: Damien, I suspect that things will recover either way after the vote. The huge uncertainty is probably weighing heavy on investor confidence.

I agree but people are going to vote on stupid things like roaming charges. Do the youngsters go abroad that often that it would make a big difference to them?

---------- Post added at 11:10 ---------- Previous post was at 11:08 ----------

Originally Posted by Maggy J

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7026796.html

EU immigration to the UK has not harmed British peoples’ access to jobs, public services or incomes, a major study has concluded.



I'll leave this here..

EU immigration to the UK has not harmed British peoples’ access to jobs, public services or incomes, a major study has concluded.

Oh really? Is that why the NHS is full of them instead of training and employing our own Citizens?

---------- Post added at 11:12 ---------- Previous post was at 11:10 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

Some good news for Dave?

EU court rejects child benefits challenge

On behalf of Leave I rest the case. We can't do what we want without the EU say-so. TAKE BACK CONTROL - VOTE LEAVE!

[adzii_nufc]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

I agree but people are going to vote on stupid things like roaming charges. Do the youngsters go abroad that often that it would make a big difference to them?

---------- Post added at 11:10 ---------- Previous post was at 11:08 ----------



EU immigration to the UK has not harmed British peoples’ access to jobs, public services or incomes, a major study has concluded.

Oh really? Is that why the NHS is full of them instead of training and employing our own Citizens?

Have a relevant story for the bottom part. Already posted this one in another thread. Before my role as a security advisor I worked through ranks as Static security, Door work, VIP security and finally Security Advisor. This relates to my time as a static officer.

Mr A (Nigerian) and Mr B (Unknown nationality) were both working alongside me on numerous occasions. Both pleasant chaps and spoke clear English. However they were on numerous occasions coaxed into 48-72 hour shifts over a weekend which is illegal and it turns out Mr A no longer had a work visa which they actually knew about but never acted upon. Part two relates to December, Christmas being a very hectic month. The company wanted to bring more staff on and specifically hired non UK born workers because as my manager put they wouldn't complain when released after the new year, some were middle eastern, there was a pleasant Polish chap and a very quiet and strange Danish male, I laughed once after he said Copenhagen but pronounced It as Coopenhargen which was presumably how the Danish say it. Part 1 indicates they should've been hiring extra workers to cover hours without breaking the law. Part 2 indicates they'd favour immigrants because when the work dies down they're easier to fob off.

Also the majority of G4s employees still remaining at the 2012 Olympics were of middle eastern origin at least in Newcastle.

Originally Posted by adzii_nufc

I don't really think I'm being offered a winning solution. All I've received the in the post is two fact leaflets from either side and I make out (maybe incorrect) a case of being damned if you do and damned if you don't. There's no side with zero negatives but I can't really get enough information without reading wall upon wall of text of arguments and counterclaims. I need simple true summaries to decide if one argument has less negatives and better positives than the other.
.

All i've had is a leaflet from the electoral commission ,nothing from leave or remain and definitely not Camerons tax payer funded leaflet so either he didn't bother sending one out of he's been ripped off by the post office for his delivery charges .Suppose it depends where you live in Newcastle as to whether they bother giving a person information ,we don't get any canvassers for elections either

Thus far besides the leaftlets through the box. I've had absolutely mad fanatics bouncing around in the town centre (Newcastle) with red leave signs telling me absolutely nothing other than leave.. Then on the opposite side of the monument, the blue side doing exactly the same thing

They pull a funny face and their head hurts when you ask them anything remotely pertinent to the argument

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by adzii_nufc

I don't really think I'm being offered a winning solution. All I've received the in the post is two fact leaflets from either side and I make out (maybe incorrect) a case of being damned if you do and damned if you don't. There's no side with zero negatives but I can't really get enough information without reading wall upon wall of text of arguments and counterclaims. I need simple true summaries to decide if one argument has less negatives and better positives than the other.

There are no zero negatives and nor will there be, however damned if you do, damned if you don't is taking it a bit far IMHO.

There will be a hit to the economy if Brexit win or if remain win how long it will last is down to our wonderful diplomats and their negotiating skills for trade deals in the long term. Meanwhile, in the short term trade will not change all that much. Stocks, shares and currency all take a hit in a period of uncertainty and we are in that now. Investors are unsure of how the vote will go and what impact it will have on their investments quite rightly so.

Once the referendum is over their will still be a period of uncertaincy no matter what the result.

If Brexit - will trade deals be made for the longer term and with a wider market (the world rather than what the EU want)

If remain - will the EU now push the UK to even closer integration. consolidation of power etc.

Again IMHO the referendum boils down to this.

Do you wish Britain to become a Sovereign Country again, able to decide it's own laws and have control of all things which affect it's citizens.

Or

Do you wish to relinquish the above to the EU?

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by martyh

All i've had is a leaflet from the electoral commission ,nothing from leave or remain and definitely not Camerons tax payer funded leaflet so either he didn't bother sending one out of he's been ripped off by the post office for his delivery charges .Suppose it depends where you live in Newcastle as to whether they bother giving a person information ,we don't get any canvassers for elections either



They pull a funny face and their head hurts when you ask them anything remotely pertinent to the argument

I never even got that one the Government spent £9 m on. Guess they didn't think it was worth delivering to the North East.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

I never even got that one the Government spent £9 m on. Guess they didn't think it was worth delivering to the North East.

I didn't get it either, I have a communal letterbox and one of the other lads took exception and ripped them all up. I didn't complain as I would most likely have done the same to mine.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Again IMHO the referendum boils down to this.

Do you wish Britain to become a Sovereign Country again, able to decide it's own laws and have control of all things which affect it's citizens.

If that's what you genuinely believe you're going to find Brexit really disappointing if it does happen.

[Big Brian]

Unsure if this has been posted today:

14 June 2016: Clear shift to leave

After weeks of uncertainty about whether the polls were moving one way or another there now seems to be a clear picture: there has been a shift to leave.

Four polls were published yesterday evening: two by ICM for the Guardian, one by YouGov for the Times, and one by ORB for the Daily Telegraph.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36271589