[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Originally Posted by Gavin78

http://news.sky.com/story/1710094/sc...-brexitGermany has warned the UK it will not have access to the single market if it votes to leave the European Union on 23 June.


German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said a relationship similar to that enjoyed by Norway and Switzerland "won't work" for the UK and that "In is in. Out is out".


Found it funny to be honest me thinks Europe is scared of what may come out of this with the other nations

This is what Leave want. Gove has already said that the single-market is not what they want, that Norway isn't what they want and there is no way Leave will do any deal on freedom of movement. It's going to be presented and threat but this is right: No EEA deal, no freedom of movement and no single market.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Gavin78

http://news.sky.com/story/1710094/sc...-brexitGermany has warned the UK it will not have access to the single market if it votes to leave the European Union on 23 June.


German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said a relationship similar to that enjoyed by Norway and Switzerland "won't work" for the UK and that "In is in. Out is out".


Found it funny to be honest me thinks Europe is scared of what may come out of this with the other nations

Enjoyed by norway lol and no one would get a deal like Switzerland, it was a sop because they voted against joining by .1 of a percent iirc, you'll have to do better if you want to scare anyone wolfie

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Enjoyed by norway lol and no one would get a deal like Switzerland, it was a sop because they voted against joining by .1 of a percent iirc, you'll have to do better if you want to scare anyone wolfie

I don't think Leave will contest this. It's largely in line with their own statements and it stops the idea of MPs trying to rig it after a Leave vote to keep us in EEA.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Leave not pretending to have a negotiation timetable in the event we vote out actually makes them more credible to me though I may be in a tiny minority. No one can suggest a timetable because we have no idea how hostile the EU will be or how long they may drag things out it is something that will be out of our control. Given the rhetoric we have had it's safe to say a degree of messing about will be present on the EU side but over what and how long it will be dragged out is anyone's guess.

I think they will try to influence other countries not to have a similar membership vote by treating the uk as harshly as they can and I think it will backfire and actually Stoke the fires of dissent. I still believe if we do vote out the EU is finished we would be the first but not the last and it will be a case of when the whole things collapses not if.

You think having no plan makes them more credible, it's an interesting stance sadly though I believe you are on a minority of one believing it though. The time table has an end, 2 years unless we convince everyone to give us an extention, if we can't that's it we're gone regardless of what stage in negotiations we're at so with that in mind I'd have like to have heard a rough guide on where they'd like negotiations to be at certain stages and what they plan to do if we're not there. Or is their plan to get us out and hang the consequences, someone else can worry about that and clean up the mess

[Gavin78]

Originally Posted by Damien

This is what Leave want. Gove has already said that the single-market is not what they want, that Norway isn't what they want and there is no way Leave will do any deal on freedom of movement. It's going to be presented and threat but this is right: No EEA deal, no freedom of movement and no single market.

Gove was talking about still doing trade with the EU perhaps not as a single market but it seems the EU is saying no trade at all or that is the way I read the article

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't think Leave will contest this. It's largely in line with their own statements and it stops the idea of MPs trying to rig it after a Leave vote to keep us in EEA.

I actually agree with wolfie, in or out, EEA is the worst of both worlds

Originally Posted by Gavin78

Gove was talking about still doing trade with the EU perhaps not as a single market but it seems the EU is saying no trade at all or that is the way I read the article

You misread it...

The first line of the article states

Germany has warned the UK it will not have access to the single market if it votes to leave the European Union on 23 June.

Frankly I think we need to be out of the single market. Being in it is a source of so much burdensome regulation, much of it falling on the 60% of British economic activity that is entirely domestic and doesn't require access to it.

[Osem]

Given the current status of the CF poll on EU membership I'm wondering how long it'll be before some scaremongering 'remainer' or other will start bombarding 'admin' with dire warnings about the threat to this forum if we leave the EU.

If the Germans want us to stay in the EU I'm not certain threats/warnings emanating from Berlin are the best way to ensure that happens, even if they're sincerely held.

Originally Posted by Osem

Given the current status of the CF poll on EU membership I'm wondering how long it'll be before some scaremongering 'remainer' or other will start bombarding 'admin' with dire warnings about the threat to this forum if we leave the EU.

Well a new poll has Leave 10% ahead so it's not going to be long before we find out if it was scaremongering or not. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7075131.html

(10% by the way is far than can be made up with status-quo effects)

[Osem]

I'm not a great believer in polls so I'll be waiting for the official result before I believe anything. I won't be celebrating if we do leave, I'll be wondering why the EU couldn't see sense and reform itself into what it should have been. Part of me still thinks they might if the shock of us leaving focuses a few minds but I won't be putting money on that.

[passingbat]

Originally Posted by Osem

I'll be wondering why the EU couldn't see sense and reform itself into what it should have been.

Because the movers behind the EU have never had any other plan, other than a Federal states of Europe. There is no other version of the EU as far as they are concerned.

Originally Posted by Osem

I'm not a great believer in polls so I'll be waiting for the official result before I believe anything. I won't be celebrating if we do leave, I'll be wondering why the EU couldn't see sense and reform itself into what it should have been. Part of me still thinks they might if the shock of us leaving focuses a few minds but I won't be putting money on that.

I am still well clear of the internet win or lose.

I think Leave is going to win and have done for a few days now. The fact the economic argument hasn't convinced people and there is huge Brexit support in Labour heartlands has done that for me.

If I was a Leave supporter I would be worried about what happens next. There will be a attempt to stop it happening. I think via a General Election where Remain is put on the ballot.

I wonder what will happen to the Tories too. The problem for a victory for Leave as far as Boris is concerned (I think Gove is honest in his desire to Leave) is that this anti-elitism, anti-politics, wave he is surfing will claim him eventually too. If we Leave would he really want to be the one in charge of a fractious Tory party and have to get the deals he has said we would get? I have a feeling some sacrificial lamb will become Tory leader after Cameron in that case.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

I am still well clear of the internet win or lose.

I think Leave is going to win and have done for a few days now. The fact the economic argument hasn't convinced people and there is huge Brexit support in Labour heartlands has done that for me.

If I was a Leave supporter I would be worried about what happens next. There will be a attempt to stop it happening. I think via a General Election where Remain is put on the ballot.

I wonder what will happen to the Tories too. The problem for a victory for Leave as far as Boris is concerned (I think Gove is honest in his desire to Leave) is that this anti-elitism, anti-politics, wave he is surfing will claim him eventually too. If we Leave would he really want to be the one in charge of a fractious Tory party and have to get the deals he has said we would get? I have a feeling some sacrificial lamb will become Tory leader after Cameron in that case.

It wouldn't surprise me at all. The EU has form on not accepting results they don't like and if enough of the movers and shakers on both sides of the Channel get together maybe they will seek to move the goalposts. It's going to be messy within HMG and Labour too - a lot's been said and done which isn't soon going to be forgotten.

I never said there was no plan I said them not pretending to have a plan on negotiations makes me feel they are more credible rather then them coming out with some announced plan that can have no basis in fact. Two years is the maximum at the moment but if the uk votes out a few things will be changing in the EU they won't have a choice and if the leave vote is not significantly high the EU may decide it can drag things out in the hope of a way to reverse the referendum.

Reality is no one has a clue it's all utter guesswork as nothing like this has happened before anyone talking in absolute terms at the minute highlights themselves as a liar.