[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Originally Posted by Gavin78

Tonight's debate.

350m a week "IN" asked him it's a lie they said. Well maybe in the sense of what we get back but we still have to pay out 350m first before any rebate. The point being why don't we just pay 150m a week instead and keep the rest instead of a rebate. Simple the 350m is there in case they want to take it all and from what I heard the rebate is only conditional for a short period of time?

The rebate is an instant rebate ,in other words it is taken from our gross contribution before we pay anything .The size of the rebate is based on our contributions which are going up and that means we get a bigger rebate because we are a net contributor

[Gavin78]

The lies started when Cameron said if he didn't get the reforms he promised us in the general election he would lead the out campaign himself? Well he came back with some half baked promise from the EU and not what he said he would go in for.

Personally I think he will just ignore the vote anyway and use staying in as a national interest for security and protection.

[RichardCoulter]

Does anyone think it worthwhile setting up a poll to gauge the feelings on here about whether we stay or leave?

Originally Posted by Gavin78

The lies started when Cameron said if he didn't get the reforms he promised us in the general election he would lead the out campaign himself? Well he came back with some half baked promise from the EU and not what he said he would go in for.

Personally I think he will just ignore the vote anyway and use staying in as a national interest for security and protection.

He wouldn't be allowed to do that

Not only that but Boris or Gove should be leading the negotiations in the event of Brexit. I think they should be charge of securing the deals they've told us will come. No point them advocating the nation goes down this path and then backing off when it happens.

Originally Posted by Damien

Not only that but Boris or Gove should be leading the negotiations in the event of Brexit. I think they should be charge of securing the deals they've told us will come. No point them advocating the nation goes down this path and then backing off when it happens.

Quite agree ,also Cameron has already said he won't be in the running at the next GE so it's pointless him being involved whatever the outcome

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

We were rather crafty and extended the vote to people who aren't on Twitter but don't tell them.

Or maybe 'we' just let you think you've done that...

[passingbat]

Originally Posted by Stephen

Why risk it?

Taking control back, so that we have complete control by a democratically elected British government over Laws, Taxes, Borders and immigration, are things that instantly spring to mind.

Works for me.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Stephen

Well if the party wants us to stay then they aren't going to put anything out other than the worst case.

Its up to the leave party to tell us what could happen if we leave. But even they don't really know.

The remain side don't know what's going to happen if we stay. Cameron proved that back in February when he went off to Eurolalaland expecting to get concessions and was told to bugger off.

The EU doesn't know what's going to happen - which country will be next to elect a right wing leader/party, put up a wall, close its borders, declare an emergency of some sort etc.

There is no such thing as certainty.

Originally Posted by Damien

If we leave aside our own biases and try to discuss this objectively what does everyone think the actual result will be and why?

As I said above I think that a combination of anti-establishment mood as well as a serious underestimation of the Leave vote in Northern Labour heartlands will win this for Leave. I can't explain why the polls aren't picking this up, and it may be apprehension talking, but the underlying questions in the polling are alarming for Remain. Only 1/3rd of the electorate think there will be any economic impact in Leaving for example whilst the vast majority think immigration will go down. 50% of Labour voters think Labour supports Leave. Most voters think EU immigration accounts for 15% of the population as opposed to 5%.

Essentially the Leave campaign is working. Despite the 50-50 in the polls most voters think Brexit will not hurt the economy but will reduce migration. If that's the case Remain is finished. Either the headline poll numbers are wrong or the underlying poll numbers are wrong. There is no way most voters think the economy will be fine but will vote to Remain anyway.

I think leave will win the vote because for decades now the public has been told that the EU is the reason for all our problems from seeing a GP to prisoners getting released early and wacky H&S rules ,it has been ingrained into us that the EU is bad ,i really think it is as simple as that

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

What rabid xenophobia I hear that term thrown around a lot as though it somehow applies to most people in favour of leaving and like most of the stuff remain comes out with it's a load of rubbish. Not being in the EU doesn't mean we close the shutters and ignore the rest of the world quite the opposite most in favour of leaving are enthusiastic for greater global relations so how is xenophobic applicable??.

Try reading the post rather than something into it that isn't there, unless of course you really do think every single person voting has no disliking of foreigners at all. The post I replied stated a stupid reason for remaining involving chocolate, all I did was cite a stupid reason someone might have for leaving

---------- Post added at 16:12 ---------- Previous post was at 16:11 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

Well he responding to the suggestion Remain voters haven't thought about it. His point being stop generalising the other side negatively.

---------- Post added at 07:32 ---------- Previous post was at 06:44 ----------

Anyway I am now 70% sure Leave is going to win. I think the polls and pundits are underestiming the vote from working class Labour voters, especially in the north. The underlying polling is also bad for Remain, many think there will be no economic hit from Brexit.

I think we'll leave to, not massively fussed tbh, I've swayed one side to the other for years

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Does anyone think it worthwhile setting up a poll to gauge the feelings on here about whether we stay or leave?

well I think it would be overwhelming leave if we did that.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by techguyone

I think fear of the unknown will win.

I think it might be more a case that leave hasn't actually stated a viable time line of events after we leave, their cause could have been given a massive boost if they had done that or at least advertised the fact better if they did.

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

I think we'll leave to, not massively fussed tbh, I've swayed one side to the other for years

I'll be fine with it as long as there is no big economic hit.

I think Gove and Boris though haven't thought though the ramifications for them if there is. The polls I was referencing earlier didn't say people know there will be a hit but are willing to put up with it, they don't believe it will happen. Not sure how long Prime Minister Boris lasts if isn't as rosy as promised in the aftermath. The anger would be fierce.

Same with Cameron and Remain of course but I suspect he isn't around for long either.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by martyh

The rebate is an instant rebate ,in other words it is taken from our gross contribution before we pay anything .The size of the rebate is based on our contributions which are going up and that means we get a bigger rebate because we are a net contributor

In other words the mp doctor was right when she said leave were telling out tight lies when she walked out on them