[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

One seems certain is that this is going to go the way of the Scottish Referendum and won't be settled, either way, on the 24th. I think this has been quite a bitter and divisive campaign and the EU issue will become even bigger. If we Remain? There will be moves to depose Cameron from backbench Tories and another referendum on the schedule within a few years. Leave? Negotiations to Leave will dominate, Cameron will likely resign, other Tories/MPs might try to get an early election to try and overturn the result before it's final and stall the process of Leaving until they do.

---------- Post added at 22:13 ---------- Previous post was at 22:04 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

You can easily be undercut if you happen to earn more than the minimum wage which is what 99.9% of qualified tradesmen would have been.

How close to the minimum wage are you and how would you feel if an influx of cheap labour from the former Soviet state Undercutdamien was to flood the UK and do you out of a job? That's a 'right' we could all do without IMHO. It's no accident that those in favour of free movement generally seem to be from professions which don't suffer. Odd that eh?...

I think that's just the way of politics. People vote their own self-interest most of the time. I imagine not many people from Leave are in jobs which depend on free movement either. Likewise Thatcher doesn't have many fans from the mining communities but does amongst more white-collar workers.

I don't actually know how tradesman have been affected from EU migrations to tell you the truth. It should be easier to quantify but I couldn't find any statistics when I googled. I just threw that out as an example of a demographic which is more likely to be impacted by freedom of movement.

The problem with wages though is that we're not just competing with each other but also the rest of the world. Manufacturing for example declined in part because we can't compete as much with the likes of China/Asia. That might change if the Pound tanks but that would cause a loss of jobs elsewhere. If we Leave then many workers, such as Steel workers in Wales, will still be hurting from the impact of globalisation.

I don't know how we deal with that but Leave or Remain it will still be an issue.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't actually know how tradesman have been affected from EU migrations to tell you the truth.

My brother in law who is a decorator is getting undercut by immigrants (generally Polish, Romanian etc)
They are happy to work for less money and he has a kid and home to support here. Competing with them can be difficult

Originally Posted by Ramrod

My brother in law who is a decorator is getting undercut by immigrants (generally Polish, Romanian etc)
They are happy to work for less money and he has a kid and home to support here. Competing with them can be difficult

Self-employed I take it?

That is bad and is certainly, IMO, the worst part of the EU. I am generally for freedom of movement but it would be better if they had some sort of economic break whereby movement is restricted and eased up as the nation reaches economic parity with the rest of the bloc. We would probably need exceptions for workers based in another country but working temporary, moving within an existing company or skilled workers though.

My first initial post about this was lacking nuance in retrospect. I still think it's not as simple as wages going up if we Leave and that the primary driver of the decline of many manual labour jobs in the UK is global competition rather than EU workers but it would be foolish to casually dismiss the fact that some people do suffer.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Damien

Self-employed I take it?

That is bad and is certainly, IMO, the worst part of the EU. I am generally for freedom of movement but it would be better if they had some sort of economic break whereby movement is restricted and eased up as the nation reaches economic parity with the rest of the bloc. We would probably need exceptions for workers based in another country but working temporary, moving within an existing company or skilled workers though.

My first initial post about this was lacking nuance in retrospect. I still think it's not as simple as wages going up if we Leave and that the primary driver of the decline of many manual labour jobs in the UK is global competition rather than EU workers but it would be foolish to casually dismiss the fact that some people do suffer.

Very good points. If workers from EU countries with a lower cost of living so come here then what you describe can happen. I do not feel that this is universal effect as there are jobs that EU migrants will do that local workers choose not to. There are also skills shortages which again EU migrants fill e.g. the NHS. The raising of the Minimum Wage certainly helps to lessen this effect.

It is the comment you made regarding global competition that is, I feel, the important one here. The EU has strengthened workers rights and they *will* be eroded if we Leave.

[passingbat]

Originally Posted by ianch99

The EU has strengthened workers rights and they *will* be eroded if we Leave.

Workers rights seems to be one of Labour's main reason for backing Remain. It appears to be the case that Labour don't have any confidence in themselves being elected next time to put that right if the Tories, under Brexit do reverse some of the labour laws. Personally, even though I don't trust the Tories, I doubt that they would do that

Labour also don't seem to trust that the British public would cause an outcry if the Tories did try to introduce unfair Labour laws.

Labour need to concentrate on making themselves electable rather than relying on unelected officials from outside sources to do their job for them.

And as for them having any chance of reforming the EU... well, as that irritating currently popular saying goes... 'That's for the birds'.

Britain desperately needs an electable centre left party; and the current Labour party isn't it.

No one is going to take a hatchet to workers right in the event we vote to leave that's just another scare tactic, honestly listening to some you would be mistaken for thinking the UK never did anything positive till the EU rolled along and it's a complete load of rubbish. I think even the most dim witted politician has realised that the British public have a higher opinion of what flows through sewers right now then they do the political class and that dismantling workers rights might just well push a large group of people over the edge.

It's this revisionist history some on the remain side have spouted that has really angered me as this nations values of fairness and tolerance were in play long before the eec or the EU started doing anything. Granted it suits some to believe it and many younger voters might also fall for it but the reality is the fight for workers rights in this country was done many decades ago by very committed people who deserve better then to have their legacy taken by a bunch of spineless opportunistic grubs. Workers rights will not disappear if we vote leave just as the world will not end and countries will not fall, might take a few quid out of some wallets that won't really miss it but that will be the biggest extent.

A few of my brother's company's do most of their business in the EU and he's been having conference calls and meetings with clients and none of them seem overly concerned about brexit their general opinion is that if we do vote to leave things will continue much as before as that's what is in everyone's interests. To be honest most of my views of the economic argument have come from him and those he does business with mainly Germans and Italians and they certainly don't share the doom and gloom about brexit some think it might be the best thing for the EU.

That's why the scare mongering and fear campaign have angered me so much it's a small group promoting and backing those tactics and is not representative of everyone in certain fields that they claim.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by ianch99

I see it totally opposite: the EU is a better option for the working man

---------- Post added at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:46 ----------



I am sure you said at one point that the NHS would benefit from money saved .. apologies if you didn't.

Maybe I said 'could' or 'wouldn't you rather' or something on these lines. However, I am under no illusions here. I know it won't be plain sailing or a bed of roses in the first few years of independence. Who was it said "Nothing worth doing is going to be easy"? I, like most sensible Brexiters are looking at the bigger picture. We look at all the possibilities that will arise from leaving the EU.

Remain will say we've spent this money 10 times over but that is not true. What Vote Leave are saying is what the money saved 'could' be spent on, not what it 'would' be spent on. They use the NHS as a perfect example of how the money could be spent.

[j52c]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

My brother in law who is a decorator is getting undercut by immigrants (generally Polish, Romanian etc)
They are happy to work for less money and he has a kid and home to support here. Competing with them can be difficult

What I sometimes fail to understand is that most polticians say that all the majority of the immigrants pay all their taxes and put a lot back into the economy. Let us face it, a big majority of all immigrants will be on low wages and will claim tax credits and other benefits to make their wages up and will still not pay any income tax due to the increase in personal allowances. Then, most of these will be claiming child benefit for their children back home, plus they will be send the biggest part of their earnings back home to the families there. How is that benefitting our economy. The only person benefittiing is their employer.

[heero_yuy]

Now another THREE polls show Brexit camp in the lead: Five of the last eight surveys put Leave ahead as Boris Johnson dismisses fears about the value of the pound

Online survey by ICM gave Out a five-point lead on 48 per cent
YouGov found Leave on 45 per cent with Remain on 41 per cent
TNS put Out at 43 per cent, two points clear of Remain's 41

Source

Psst, Dave, project fear isn't working.

Some 270 veterans from the Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force have issued a last-ditch plea for comrades to register to vote to back Brexit.

A letter, organised by the Veterans for Britain group, expressed concerns about the increasing role of the European Union in defence policy.

In the letter to The Sun, retired sergeants, petty officers and other non-commissioned officers from the three services hailed the referendum as "a unique opportunity to return full democratic control to people the country elects".

"We believe it is essential to maintain and where necessary re-establish the United Kingdom's autonomy in defence in the context of its pre-existing alliances and to ensure it is directly and solely accountable to the UK Parliament," they said.

"The UK Armed Forces perform a distinctive role in underpinning the relationship between the people and UK head of state and elected government and we are concerned that this role and this relationship is being muddied by the increasing role of the EU in UK life, including its powers in areas of defence."

They said Nato had kept the peace in Europe and a post-Brexit UK would continue to work closely with its allies, including those in the EU.

AOL news linky

[Osem]

Originally Posted by j52c

What I sometimes fail to understand is that most polticians say that all the majority of the immigrants pay all their taxes and put a lot back into the economy. Let us face it, a big majority of all immigrants will be on low wages and will claim tax credits and other benefits to make their wages up and will still not pay any income tax due to the increase in personal allowances. Then, most of these will be claiming child benefit for their children back home, plus they will be send the biggest part of their earnings back home to the families there. How is that benefitting our economy. The only person benefittiing is their employer.

Well they change the argument to suit themselves and the day of the week. I fail to see how any migrant who's earning a low income and receiving IN WORK BENEFITS (e.g. working tax credit, child tax credit, child benefit) can be much of a net contributor to UK PLC, especially since many of them will also be sending money back home.

As for the 'bonfire of workers rights' argument, well it's frankly puerile. Until 5 minutes ago Corbyn was a sincere believer that the EU wasn't good for the man in the street and that Labour is the party of the working man. Presumably he now feels that with him as its leader Labour is so unelectable that he'd rather us be run by unelected suits in Brussels. It's laughable.

A rare bit of good news both sides can agree on: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...endum-deadline

Record numbers of people are expected to sign up on Tuesday to vote in the referendum, before a midnight deadline for registrations.

The Electoral Commission says it is prepared for a surge in registrations, particularly from young people, after figures for Monday showed the second biggest day for registrations since the system went online.

Remain or Leave it's best that it is decided by a large turnout and it's encouraging to many young people signing themselves up to the electoral register considered the poor turnout in elections for that age group.

[techguyone]

Can't argue with that, it's always disappointing when you see how low voter turnout is in many elections.

[jonbxx]

Considering various UK governments have opposed the Working Time Directive, Agency Employee Rights Directives and TUPE and Redundancy Consultation Directives, I would say yes, we should be concerned

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Damien

Self-employed I take it?

Yup

That is bad and is certainly, IMO, the worst part of the EU. I am generally for freedom of movement but it would be better if they had some sort of economic break whereby movement is restricted and eased up as the nation reaches economic parity with the rest of the bloc. We would probably need exceptions for workers based in another country but working temporary, moving within an existing company or skilled workers though.

Non of which we would be allowed

[heero_yuy]

All the same, today’s press conference did confirm one thing: Mr Cameron remains incapable of thinking further ahead than the next move on the chessboard. Live on TV, he’d just told the public that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are utterly untrustworthy; they “tell complete untruths” and “peddle nonsense”.

Dave doesn't "do" irony.

Now, imagine Remain wins the referendum. Surely, after effectively calling these two men liars, Mr Cameron can’t include them in his Cabinet. Yet, for reasons of Tory unity, he surely can’t leave them out, either.

In order to tackle one crisis, he’s creating another.

Knee-jerk short termism and panic. It's been the character of Dave's "leadership"

Quotes linky