[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[Ramrod]

Ironically, he doesn't have an economic argument, simply an opinion. No-one knows what would happen if we leave and no-one knows what will happen if we stay either (economically).

[Osem]

Yep, the truth is that, regardless of whether we leave the EU or not, NOBODY knows what's going to happen economically, socially or politically here or anywhere else for that matter. The only stuff we can be certain of with regard to the EU is what's happened to date and it ain't great.

[heero_yuy]

What we can be certain of, in the short term, is that we will not be giving £18bn a year to the EU. Some of that saved money would need to be spent to replace money that EU sends back (~£8bn), for example to farmers, but we would then be in control of that spending and could probably target it better whilst reducing it.

Either way there's £10bn in the pot for HMG to spend as they see fit.

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

What we can be certain of, in the short term, is that we will not be giving £18bn a year to the EU. Some of that saved money would need to be spent to replace money that EU sends back (~£8bn), for example to farmers, but we would then be in control of that spending and could probably target it better whilst reducing it.

Either way there's £10bn in the pot for HMG to spend as they see fit.

This is assuming no drop in the economy though. £10bn would be wiped out with a slight drop in growth (from where we otherwise be).

[Ramrod]

Excellent letter in the Sprctator:

If David Cameron truly believed that exit from the EU would mean economic meltdown, a third world war and always winter but never Christmas, his decision to hold a referendum would be the most irresponsible act of statesmanship since Chamberlain signed the Munich agreement. But he doesn’t believe it. Something else entirely is bringing out his inner Pinocchio.

Having promised a referendum at a time when a Tory majority in the Commons seemed unlikely, the personal political risk to Cameron must have seemed remote. If he did have to deliver on the promise, a vote to Remain seemed a comfortable outcome following an assumed substantial renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with the EU. Unfortunately, a substantial renegotiation was never on the table and Cameron found himself outmanoeuvred by the German Chancellor.

Left with nothing of value to offer the British people, and aware of what this could mean for both the outcome of the referendum and his own political future, a strategy was necessary. So, in true Flashman style, our Prime Minister has turned to lies, bluster and deceit in order to extricate himself from a predicament of his own making. Truth and honour be damned; all that matters is personal survival.

It is to be hoped that the British people will see through all this subterfuge, and in a real act of statesmanship vote to Leave on 23 June.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/b...eron-has-left/

The eurozone is not exactly setting the economic world alight at the minute and all the organisation's telling us how disastrous our leaving the EU will be don't have good forecasts for the EU economically so the economy argument for me is neither a plus point for remain or leave. Given what we're hearing daily you'd think the UK only has the EU to trade with here's the problem with EU trade as the eurozone economies continue to struggle so will our trade with them but we're not getting that info.

All the trade and economy scare mongering that is going on is ridiculous and I'm meant to take the imf, wto, boe and the rest seriously after their fantastic performance in economic predictions for the last 20 years there hasn't been a crisis they saw coming or were prepared for but now we should all be listening to them. I think people need to look at just the EU as it is what it is planning to become and what it's done and on that it's record is as impressive as all those economic institutions.

As for David Cameron he has shown his attitude to the British people in this referendum and whilst I'm not going to talk in terms of treason which I agree is a little dramatic I do not think he should remain prime minister.

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

What we can be certain of, in the short term, is that we will not be giving £18bn a year to the EU. Some of that saved money would need to be spent to replace money that EU sends back (~£8bn), for example to farmers, but we would then be in control of that spending and could probably target it better whilst reducing it.

Either way there's £10bn in the pot for HMG to spend as they see fit.

isn't it the case though that farming is subsidised in the UK so heavily because we are in Europe? I'm fairly sure that one of the biggest changes should we leave would be to farmers and the way crops are grown and distributed throughout Europe .

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Damien

This is assuming no drop in the economy though. £10bn would be wiped out with a slight drop in growth (from where we otherwise be).

But how do you know this? Because the Treasury say so? They just don't know. They are putting forward worse case scenarios which will never happen. We'll take a small hit and recover within a year.

Originally Posted by Big Brian

But how do you know this? Because the Treasury say so? They just don't know. They are putting forward worse case scenarios which will never happen. We'll take a small hit and recover within a year.

I am saying in the event we take a economic hit it's likely that will cost the treasury more than the money saved in contributions. In the context of government budgets £10 billion isn't groundbreaking.

As for why I believe there will be a hit well it isn't just the treasury. There is a broad amount of support for the idea there will be an economic hit. Including the IMF, the LSE, OECD and so on. Pretty much every major economic body has warned of it.

This FT article is pretty good too: https://next.ft.com/content/70d0bfd8...d-09f7778e7377

Say 'no, it'll be fine' isn't convincing.

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by martyh

isn't it the case though that farming is subsidised in the UK so heavily because we are in Europe? I'm fairly sure that one of the biggest changes should we leave would be to farmers and the way crops are grown and distributed throughout Europe .

Partly because the French like it that way as they have many small unprofitable farms. As a consequence we end up with grain barons, usually Tory nobs, that have large, highly profitable farms, getting wallops of cash as well as the small hill farms. Out of the CAP we would be in control. We could chose who gets the subsidies.

[Big Brian]

Oh here we go. Talk about holding the country to ransom? I thought it was the people's decision whether to stay or leave the EU?

JP Morgan warns of BrexJ

P Morgan may cut up to 4,000 UK jobs if there is a vote to leave the European Union, its chief executive has warned.

Jamie Dimon said that Brexit would "be a terrible deal" for the UK economy.

He was speaking alongside Chancellor George Osborne at JP Morgan's base in Bournemouth, where the US bank has 4,000 staff.

Leave campaign spokesman, Steve Baker MP, said it was time for the 'In' campaign to engage in an honest debate.
it jobs threat

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36446023

[Gavin78]

I would like to see a debate on live TV with some selected members of the EU tell us why it would be beneficial to stay in the EU and the Audiance can ask them questions.

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Oh here we go. Talk about holding the country to ransom? I thought it was the people's decision whether to stay or leave the EU?

It is. It's also their choice where to invest or locate their workforce.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Damien

It is. It's also their choice where to invest or locate their workforce.

But that would make those who bank with them or work there vote stay. Therefore, they don't have a choice they tow the line or lose their jobs.

4000 guaranteed remain votes. Cameron must be rubbing his hands with glee.

Originally Posted by Big Brian

But that would make those who bank with them or work there vote stay. Therefore, they don't have a choice they tow the line or lose their jobs.

Well of course. People will vote in their self-interest. They retain the option to vote however they want obviously but if you're working in financial services, especially those that trade in European markets, then that is likely to influence your vote.