[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Originally Posted by Osem

Interesting that you've discounted the notion that the ticking financial timebomb in the EU is a bigger economic hit waiting to happen. The problems in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy etc. haven't gone away and what makes you think that, if we stay in, we won't wind up suffering a worse hit - directly by being part of the club (bale outs) and indirectly?

Because I think that would hit us either way. We can't isolate ourselves off from Europe and they will continue to be a big trading partner for us. Now that trade will take a hit if we do leave Europe, in my opinion, which would help protect us a bit but only in the sense that we'll have done the damage anyway. Alternatively if the Leave campaign are right that we'll keep the benefits of the single market then we take the economic hit in the EU or not in the EU.

If the EU is a sinking ship then all Leave are offering is the option to jump overboard. Either way we're going to drown. Better to try and steer the ship or hope it avoids any icebergs.

The thing is Europe will still be there with their problems. People will still be able to take advantage of their open borders and end up in Calais. Their economic regulations will still apply in any businesses here that wish to trade with Europe, albeit those that don't won't be bound by them, and any economic crash will take us along with it.

I think this article sums up the cautious conservatism of many Remain voters: http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/a...for-voting-in/ (open in private/incognito mode if it's paywalled for you).

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Because I think that would hit us either way. We can't isolate ourselves off from Europe and they will continue to be a big trading partner for us. Now that trade will take a hit if we do leave Europe, in my opinion, which would help protect us a bit but only in the sense that we'll have done the damage anyway. Alternatively if the Leave campaign are right that we'll keep the benefits of the single market then we take the economic hit in the EU or not in the EU.

If the EU is a sinking ship then all Leave are offering is the option to jump overboard. Either way we're going to drown. Better to try and steer the ship or hope it avoids any icebergs.

The thing is Europe will still be there with their problems. People will still be able to take advantage of their open borders and end up in Calais. Their economic regulations will still apply in any businesses here that wish to trade with Europe, albeit those that don't won't be bound by them, and any economic crash will take us along with it.

I think this article sums up the cautious conservatism of many Remain voters: http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/a...for-voting-in/ (open in private/incognito mode if it's paywalled for you).

You'd be right that waiting until it's too late wouldn't be wise and that's why we need to act now, not in another few years when it's all either happened or imminent. From where I'm sitting getting off the sinking ship while we have time to take measures to mitigate the fallout to whatever extent is possible. Nobody honestly believes there's a no risk/damage option but staying on a ship which refuses to change course (despite the mess Europe's in) is guaranteed to work out badly. A serious question - do you really think the EU will see sense and change course? If so, what makes you think that?

---------- Post added at 19:44 ---------- Previous post was at 19:35 ----------

On a separate note, I'd be interested to know how other forum members are tackling these issues at home re children who are voting. I long ago told Osem Jnr. that I don't want to know how he's voting and that I'll never ask him. Sadly, he has far more at stake than I do and I don't want to influence him at all so we won't be discussing it unless he wants to.

[RichardCoulter]

I've not made my mind up yet (even though my vote came today).

The main reason that those voting to leave are giving to me is the amount of EU immigrants coming here (which I sympathise with). However, isn't there some sort of agreement that prevents us ridding ourselves of the immigrants that we don't want (either due to quantity or quality)?

If we do leave the EU, what's to stop them coming in illegally or making spurious/false asylum claims like others do from non EU countries?

We would still have immigrants defecating, urinating, begging, stealing etc in public at various hotspots.

I think that just because a person lives in another EU country, that this entitles them to live wherever they want is totally ridiculous.

If we have to have this arrangement, at a very minimum, they should be able to demonstrate that they have a job, a home and savings to keep themselves in the UK before they are allowed in.

How about a 'one in one out' policy? Eg if a Pole wanted to come here, this would only be allowed if one UK person wanted to live in Poland.

What the hell did they think was going to happen after letting poor countries join Europe and allowing them to live where they want??

[Osem]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

I've not made my mind up yet (even though my vote came today).

The main reason that those voting to leave are giving to me is the amount of EU immigrants coming here (which I sympathise with). However, isn't there some sort of agreement that prevents us ridding ourselves of the immigrants that we don't want (either due to quantity or quality)?

If we do leave the EU, what's to stop them coming in illegally or making spurious/false asylum claims like others do from non EU countries?

We would still have immigrants defecating, urinating, begging, stealing etc in public at various hotspots.

I think that just because a person lives in another EU country, that this entitles them to live wherever they want is totally ridiculous.

If we have to have this arrangement, at a very minimum, they should be able to demonstrate that they have a job, a home and savings to keep themselves in the UK before they are allowed in.

How about a 'one in one out' policy? Eg if a Pole wanted to come here, this would only be allowed if one UK person wanted to live in Poland.

What the hell did they think was going to happen after letting poor countries join Europe and allowing them to live where they want??

They knew exactly what would happen just like Merkel did - a nice mobile army of cheap labour and to hell with the consequences...

Originally Posted by Osem

You'd be right that waiting until it's too late wouldn't be wise and that's why we need to act now, not in another few years when it's all either happened or imminent. From where I'm sitting getting off the sinking ship while we have time to take measures to mitigate the fallout to whatever extent is possible. Nobody honestly believes there's a no risk/damage option but staying on a ship which refuses to change course (despite the mess Europe's in) is guaranteed to work out badly. A serious question - do you really think the EU will see sense and change course? If so, what makes you think that?.

Well I think we should be more assertive in dealing with the EU. We seem to sit it out too much and then complain when things don't go our way magically. Germany and some other nations demanded exemptions for their medical services in TIPP and we didn't but now complain about the threat of it on the NHS?

I don't think we're going to convince each other. Does help to understand why though.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Well I think we should be more assertive in dealing with the EU. We seem to sit it out too much and then complain when things don't go our way magically. Germany and some other nations demanded exemptions for their medical services in TIPP and we didn't but now complain about the threat of it on the NHS?

I don't think we're going to convince each other. Does help to understand why though.

I'd agree. Thatcher was the only one who really got anything done on our behalf and banged a few heads together. Time's moved on and things have changed, however, so I can't see the Germans letting that happen again any time soon which amounts to yet another reason for leaving.

I heard Theo Paphitis being interviewed the other day and he reckoned we should call their bluff and vote out in the knowledge that only that would force them to change tack and actually allow us to stay in a better EU which I believe most people would welcome In an ideal world I'd buy all that but these people don't like losing face - personal egos, national pride, resentment etc. are powerful forces not to be underestimated in difficult times. The stuff wars are made of in fact...

[passingbat]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

The main reason that those voting to leave are giving to me is the amount of EU immigrants coming here (which I sympathise with).

There are other reasons for Brexit. Britain not only needs to have complete control of immigration, but also complete control of all our laws and all our tax policies.

All the above need to be set by a government that can be elected and unelected by the British people only.

This will not be the case if we stay in the EU. More and more of the above will be decided by the EU. The laws will be proposed by an unelected body, that can not be thrown out, and these laws will be voted on by a European parliament, which the British representatives will obviously be a minority in.

Forget immigration it's a false argument and proof that leave are as inept as remain who use their version of scaremongering. As for trade it's a two way street between us and the rest of the EU we both benefit from continuing free trade and it makes zero sense for either side to complicate it or indulge in trade tariffs of stupid levels. I think what I'm most sick of hearing is how voting to leave is somehow turning our back on Europe and how we will become inward looking and for a lot of us leavers it's a load of rubbish. Voting to leave is the best thing we can do for the whole of Europe and our leaving will allow the UK to get back on the global stage being able to make positive choices for everyone, not tied to those agreements given the green light from Brussels.

Also seeing more and more with this "we can come out later if we are not happy" no you can't look how long it took to get this referendum and the circumstances it took for it to happen the chances of this happening anytime soon after June 23rd is laughable. By hook or by crook and given the EU's past crook more likely, leaving will be made more difficult to do in future I give it a year tops if the UK votes to remain before there is another big EU summit meeting and a brand new treaty. As for voting ukip to get out in future I'd rather chew my own arm off then ever vote for ukip same as the vast majority at the minute and voting them in to get out of the EU with the catastrophic consequences of them in power even for a short while not a chance.

Another fallacy thrown around a lot is this "you've got to be in it to change it" really and this is based on what proof exactly, we are the fifth biggest economy in the world having a vote to leave and to keep us in they agreed to what meaningful reforms??? NONE. The EU hierarchy have no interest in reform because they don't believe it needs reforming the plan and march to the U.S.E is right on course and so far everyone has moaned about it but ultimately not done a thing to halt the progress. There isn't going to be a single meaningful reform until they get the political equivalent of a punch to the jaw the UK leaving would be that it would open debate on the EU in a way that has never been done and allow all member states to stand up and actually be able to demand reform.

I'm not anti European far from it I want a Europe working together in all terms for the better of all Europe and the world and if the EU was working that way I'd be voting remain and flying the EU flag but the EU isn't doing that. It is being run by a group with a single vision and neither the imagination or the creativity to make the EU into a positive force or to adapt to changing global circumstances it's control by committee in the worst way.

I believe Europe is stronger and safer by all nations remaining independent sovereign states that best use their collective power to further a positive agenda and make a positive impact on the whole world. Not by trying to force over thirty different nations (that will be the number by the time they try complete federalism) to be one federal state governed by unelected officials whose interests and agendas have nothing to do with the people of Europe and I have faith that those nations have progressed sufficiently that we are not going to be at each other's throats without the great eu to keep us peaceful, what a crock.

I'm going to do the best thing I can for Europe on June 23rd I'm voting to leave an undemocratic, stagnant and failing project and giving a hope to all those in Europe who feel the same and are waiting for something to spur them into action. Right now we have lazy and incompetent politicians on both sides negatively campaigning to scare us into their agenda but we have a chance to show them there are so many more possibilities available to us by doing the unthinkable and leaving and that we as individuals can both rise above and see beyond the blinkered vision they have.

Have confidence in ourselves as a people and that our nation has the strengths and values this world needs and put aside personal materialistic or selfish reasons and do something truly worthwhile on June 23rd make a start to maybe a better world.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Kursk

Forget the shenanigans of Leave and Remain. Read Chris's post:

If it's that important they should've made a better fist of securing my vote. I'm not convinced by the arguments and they have done nothing to change my mind, they're the ones that should hang their heads in shame when and if the result goes against them

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

we can revisit leaving whenever the public wills it

We won't be allowed to

[Kursk]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Of course yes, I mean they really bottled it when DC went looking for renegotiated terms on the threat of UK leaving. They absolutely caved in they were so scared.

DC would be a rubbish poker player.

Everybody quotes the BMW/AUDI/VW factor that Germany will want to sort out a deal. But look at it from the other foot. We'll still want to buy them, if there is a levy put on those cars because we're out of the EU do you think we're suddenly all going to start buying KIA's. No BMWs will just cost more, and those that can afford to buy new BMW's still will.

American, Japanese or Korean.

Likewise with Champagne (I don't buy French wine anyway, more of a new world man)

Australian.

If we come out I don't think the EU will be rushing to sort out our FTA and I don't think they give us any special concessions either.

We don't want the EU to sort out anything for us. They are poor at it.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

If it's that important they should've made a better fist of securing my vote. I'm not convinced by the arguments and they have done nothing to change my mind, they're the ones that should hang their heads in shame when and if the result goes against them

A bunch of here today gone tomorrow politicians won't be influencing my vote.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Norway pay into the EU 816 million Euro.

http://www.eu-norway.org/eu/Financia.../#.V02boFLwvIU

We pay £8.5 Billion net.

Norway Population 5.2 million
UK Population 65 million.

Fag packet calculation works out Norway £118 per head UK £130 per head

£12 difference

You aren't comparing like for like there for a couple of reasons, not least of which that Norway has a way higher GDP per capita than we do, and contributions are based on that.

If we had the same GDP Norway do we'd be paying nearly 2.5 times as much.

Also worth a look at http://euquestion.blogspot.co.uk/201...orway-pay.html

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Forget immigration it's a false argument and proof that leave are as inept as remain who use their version of scaremongering.

Most people I know are extremely concerned about immigration.

I really believe that this will be a deciding factor for many people who would otherwise vote to stay. I can see why after seeing these foreign vagrants at Marble Arch recently. I have genuinely seen animals behave better- even cats cover their faeces after defecating outdoors.

Thankfully the days of people listening to the PC brigade and their shouts of racism everytime immigration or criticism of said immigrants is made appears to be drawing to an end.

---------- Post added at 00:29 ---------- Previous post was at 00:28 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

They knew exactly what would happen just like Merkel did - a nice mobile army of cheap labour and to hell with the consequences...

Exactly.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Kursk

A bunch of here today gone tomorrow politicians won't be influencing my vote.

They could've changed my mind relatively easily, I used to be very anti eu, long before it was fashionable but sadly it was beyond them to put a case forward so I think I'll be sticking with remain

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

They could've changed my mind relatively easily, I used to be very anti eu, long before it was fashionable but sadly it was beyond them to put a case forward so I think I'll be sticking with remain

So you'll be voting on what's in vogue rather than voting with your conscience.

Good call.