[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Apparently hedge funds and banks are commissions their own private exit polls for the referendum: https://next.ft.com/content/7e26d896...#axzz4A7n202GD

There will be no public exit poll from the broadcasters due to the cost of producing it for a referendum rather than an election (you can't just target swing seats) but if the hedge funds have their own polls, and no legal obligation to hold off on the information until polls close, we may well know the result on the day itself as the markets react to information we can't see.....

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Damien

Apparently hedge funds and banks are commissions their own private exit polls for the referendum: https://next.ft.com/content/7e26d896...#axzz4A7n202GD

There will be no public exit poll from the broadcasters due to the cost of producing it for a referendum rather than an election (you can't just target swing seats) but if the hedge funds have their own polls, and no legal obligation to hold off on the information until polls close, we may well know the result on the day itself as the markets react to information we can't see.....

Sorry can't read it without subscription. What are they saying?

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Sorry can't read it without subscription. What are they saying?

Pretty much what I have said. Hedge funds and banks are paying for their own internal exit polls and although we can't see the results we're know what they are because the markets will react to them. Sterling increases? Remain? Sudden drop? Leave.

Also because they're not obliged to wait for the 10pm deadline it will progress throughout the day. We'll probably have a good idea what's happened before polls even close.

It's coming down to whom do I trust to tell more of the truth..and less of the porkies.

Well you're not voting for the leave party or the remain party, you're voting on the future of the U.K. constitution. It's really worth ignoring the campaigns and doing some personal research and reading.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Maggy J

It's coming down to whom do I trust to tell more of the truth..and less of the porkies.

Don't think any politician is telling the truth ; even if they are no one's believing them.

Interesting bit in the Guardian on the chaos that might follow a Brexit vote. Its a real possibility that it wouldn't actually end up in Brexit.

The bickering and lies will go on long after June 23rd.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...o-leave-the-eu

[Ignitionnet]

Going to this later to see what those guys have to say.

Maybe I'll ask a question about immigration and have Pat Glass call me racist

This is an interesting section of a comment from Damien's link:

....but in the privacy of the polling booth they will think of their pensions, the value of their house, the future of their children, and I kinda have a hunch as to where they will put the X ...
I do agree they will not do it for any lofty pan European ideal, no.

Could be right. From a purely selfish standpoint the personal case is easier to make for remain.

Another reason why, for all the rhetoric, we will probably vote to remain.

Then continue complaining while politicians act all shocked that nothing has changed for the better and, if anything, we're getting less out of the EU while putting more in.

While we're complaining about getting shafted harder by an ever-enlarging EU other parts of the EU will be complaining that we're holding up their attempts to further integrate, which we inevitably will.

The Liberal Democrats will busily try getting us to integrate more into the EU for, well, whatever reason they support the EU to the extent they do. Their positions on the EU, immigration, etc, make perilously little sense but they are the most determined of the EU-philes.

Jeremy Corbyn will continue his absurdly obvious game of offering luke-warm support while being vehemently against in private, presumably until being replaced by a more 'mainstream' colleague who is a less liberal version of a Liberal Democrat and adores the EU.

David Cameron whenever he leaves office will take either the position in the EU or the ones for 'big business' in the private sector that his work during this referendum has earned him. If the private sector he will be waiting on his colleagues to join him when their asset stripping of the state is complete and it's time for them to benefit personally through directorships, rather than just indirectly through family, business acquaintances, donations, etc.

Finally, at some point, 'I told you so' will set in. Perhaps about the time Germany complete the destruction of the Greek economy after their election in 2018.

All we are hearing is economic this and economic that and yes it's a relevant factor but what price sovereignty, independence and self determination you won't hear remain talking in those terms as they know damn well what the main plan for the future is. Both sides are indulging in negative campaigning and it is doing nothing but driving people away from the whole thing and this is not even touching the utter mess we are going to have domestically after the 23rd. Conservative party is imploding on this issue and how the hell they will be able to run the nations affairs with any real authority I don't know.

When all three main parties are on the remain side there shouldn't have been the need for what has happened but we now have one hell of a domestic political mess that not even a general election could resolve as right now none of the main three are credible or worth the ink on a vote. Personally I'll take the short term economic hit that comes from brexit in order for us to become a truly independent, sovereign nation able to forge it's own relationships and in control of it's own affairs which will not happen if we vote to stay in. Down that path lies more erosion of sovereignty and our gradual integration into some hideous federal European dream with no realistic long-term future.

I've watched a few question times now and neither side has shifted me one inch apart from deepening my dislike and contempt of paddy ashdown with his ridiculous rhetoric and if it is more then rhetoric then clearly we people in the UK are not what he wants to be around so he should sling his hook and go live his dream in Brussels.

[Osem]

It's no wonder people like Ashdown love the EU - it's bloated bureaucracy is full of similarly underwhelming, self serving, blinkered and patronising politicians who rather like being accountable to nobody while enjoying all the perks of the privileged Brussels existence whilst Europe fails around them.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Going to this later to see what those guys have to say.

Maybe I'll ask a question about immigration and have Pat Glass call me racist

This is an interesting section of a comment from Damien's link:



Could be right. From a purely selfish standpoint the personal case is easier to make for remain.

Another reason why, for all the rhetoric, we will probably vote to remain.

Then continue complaining while politicians act all shocked that nothing has changed for the better and, if anything, we're getting less out of the EU while putting more in.

While we're complaining about getting shafted harder by an ever-enlarging EU other parts of the EU will be complaining that we're holding up their attempts to further integrate, which we inevitably will.

The Liberal Democrats will busily try getting us to integrate more into the EU for, well, whatever reason they support the EU to the extent they do. Their positions on the EU, immigration, etc, make perilously little sense but they are the most determined of the EU-philes.

Jeremy Corbyn will continue his absurdly obvious game of offering luke-warm support while being vehemently against in private, presumably until being replaced by a more 'mainstream' colleague who is a less liberal version of a Liberal Democrat and adores the EU.

David Cameron whenever he leaves office will take either the position in the EU or the ones for 'big business' in the private sector that his work during this referendum has earned him. If the private sector he will be waiting on his colleagues to join him when their asset stripping of the state is complete and it's time for them to benefit personally through directorships, rather than just indirectly through family, business acquaintances, donations, etc.

Finally, at some point, 'I told you so' will set in. Perhaps about the time Germany complete the destruction of the Greek economy after their election in 2018.

There was a Vote Leave rally in Durham on Sunday but couldn't get there what a bummer.

---------- Post added at 11:37 ---------- Previous post was at 11:32 ----------

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

All we are hearing is economic this and economic that and yes it's a relevant factor but what price sovereignty, independence and self determination you won't hear remain talking in those terms as they know damn well what the main plan for the future is. Both sides are indulging in negative campaigning and it is doing nothing but driving people away from the whole thing and this is not even touching the utter mess we are going to have domestically after the 23rd. Conservative party is imploding on this issue and how the hell they will be able to run the nations affairs with any real authority I don't know.

When all three main parties are on the remain side there shouldn't have been the need for what has happened but we now have one hell of a domestic political mess that not even a general election could resolve as right now none of the main three are credible or worth the ink on a vote. Personally I'll take the short term economic hit that comes from brexit in order for us to become a truly independent, sovereign nation able to forge it's own relationships and in control of it's own affairs which will not happen if we vote to stay in. Down that path lies more erosion of sovereignty and our gradual integration into some hideous federal European dream with no realistic long-term future.

I've watched a few question times now and neither side has shifted me one inch apart from deepening my dislike and contempt of paddy ashdown with his ridiculous rhetoric and if it is more then rhetoric then clearly we people in the UK are not what he wants to be around so he should sling his hook and go live his dream in Brussels.

They know this will win them the vote. They don't care about anything else.

---------- Post added at 11:39 ---------- Previous post was at 11:37 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

It's no wonder people like Ashdown love the EU, it's bloated bureaucracy is full of similarly underwhelming, self serving, blinkered politicians who rather like being accountable to nobody while enjoying all the perks of the privileged existence whilst Europe fails around them.

Nero fiddling while Rome burns?

[Pierre]

I've been flip flopping over this for quite a while. I was initially remain, I crept into the leave camp for a few weeks, but now I'm back in remain.

The main reason being I am pretty much certain, in my own mind, that any deal to access the EU single market after we leave will result in us paying a similar amount of money that we do now, and have to agree to free movement. I also don't think the economy is strong enough at the moment.

I have concerns over the way the EU operates, but the way see it if you're out you're out. Whereas, if we stay in we can still see it out for a period of time. If it gets worse then we can always come out at a later date and we don't need a referendum to get out, just vote UKIP at the next available election as I'm sure EU exit will be No.1 on their manifesto list.

[Osem]

Sadly, I don't feel like we can have the 'luxury of further time within the club - it's already been over 40 years since we joined the EEC. For me that option would just represent yet more frustrating years of stagnation in which we're exposed to larger problems (including huge migration related ones) and are drawn further into the complicated EU web. from which it's even harder to extricate ourselves. What really annoys me about all of this is that the EU could have been a wonderful thing if it weren't for the obsession with expansion and the creation of the one size fits all single European state at any cost. I'd happily have remained in the EU if it weren't for that.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Pierre

The main reason being I am pretty much certain, in my own mind, that any deal to access the EU single market after we leave will result in us paying a similar amount of money that we do now, and have to agree to free movement.

Be good to know what your rationale is for our having to pay as much in EFTA as we do now.

Even the Norwegians, whose politicians were desperately trying to get the country into the EU and who are considered by, say Iceland, as being mad given how much they agreed to pay, aren't paying anywhere near as much per head as we do.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Be good to know what your rationale is for our having to pay as much in EFTA as we do now.

Even the Norwegians, whose politicians were desperately trying to get the country into the EU and who are considered by, say Iceland, as being mad given how much they agreed to pay, aren't paying anywhere near as much per head as we do.

Norway pay into the EU 816 million Euro.

http://www.eu-norway.org/eu/Financia.../#.V02boFLwvIU

We pay £8.5 Billion net.

Norway Population 5.2 million
UK Population 65 million.

Fag packet calculation works out Norway £118 per head UK £130 per head

£12 difference

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by martyh

I think most people will vote by they see ,if they live in area that is swamped by immigrants and can't see their doctor or get the school place they want they will most likely vote out because for years the media has been telling us that it's all the fault of Europe ,not to mention the Tories during the Blair years where blaming Europe for everything

Interestingly, regions with the highest levels of immigration see the lowest support for UKIP with London being the most extreme example