[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

no it was what was said in that link by someone else about lost generation. As I read it, it came on the news. Spooky.

lol

Actually I heard about it on the radio yesterday but only posted it today when I'd find a link.

[Big Brian]

So the In Campaign say if we leave jobs will go? Tell that to the Steel Workers in Scunthorpe of Port Talbot. It doesn't matter if we're in or out jobs are going.

---------- Post added at 19:38 ---------- Previous post was at 19:37 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

lol

Actually I heard about it on the radio yesterday but only posted it today when I'd find a link.

Well it's a load of scaremongering at best.

[Osem]

It's scraping to bottom of the scaremongering barrel I reckon.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Osem

It's scraping to bottom of the scaremongering barrel I reckon.

3 months left to go yet. Both sides can and will use all the dirty tactics they can; they're going to scrape the barrel lower because they believe that works. It does a lot of the time, depressingly.

There's a danger the public will switch off completely or believe some of the tripe being spouted and make a decision they regret. This is incredibly important, but we're just getting negative scare from both sides. We need more of the positives of either staying or going. I believe we're better staying, but many haven't made their minds up and need facts and figures, not Project Fear.

[Ignitionnet]

Bored of all of this now.

Can we just through a 20-sided die and if it lands 1-11 we stay, 12-20 we leave?

Be about as representative as the referendum given the level of propaganda and misinformation we're having thrown at us from both sides of the argument.

[techguyone]

Much as I'd like to see us exit, I don't think we will, a combination of apathy, fear of change, and the realisation that new trade deals etc won't take * 5 minutes* to set up and there might be a bit of pain will be enough to make sure the IN lot get their way, I'm realistic enough to see this, what will be interesting will be how close it ends up. The Scottish one was a lot closer than I anticipated.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Mr K

3 months left to go yet. Both sides can and will use all the dirty tactics they can; they're going to scrape the barrel lower because they believe that works. It does a lot of the time, depressingly.

There's a danger the public will switch off completely or believe some of the tripe being spouted and make a decision they regret. This is incredibly important, but we're just getting negative scare from both sides. We need more of the positives of either staying or going. I believe we're better staying, but many haven't made their minds up and need facts and figures, not Project Fear.

That is the most sensible post you have made in this thread and you are correct.

Both sides are using scaremongering instead of reasoned debate.

Let's have a look at the benefits expressed so far in this thread for remaining in.

EXPORTS:

Do you really think they will stop immediately with a Brexit vote. Yes the trade deal will be renegotiated but the Status Quo will still exist until that time. Germany cannot afford it not to,

IMPORTS

Germany would not to give up that trade but we will be free to negotiate not just with our Commonwealth countries without restriction but also with the rest of the world. Don't forget trade deals are a two way street. I'll buy off you if you buy off me.

WTD

In 1974 no-one was contractually required to work more than 40hrs a week. Anything over and above that was by choice and had nothing to do with the EU (it was 2 years in the making with the involvement of the unions) as it was only the EC then, just a closer trading partner.

The 48hr limit later imposed by the EU (as it became) only affected workers who were willing to do overtime and stopped them earning extra money.

JOBS & SERVICE INDUSTRIES

Jobs will come and go as they always have. Just now we've been told our steel industry is being sold off with the loss of a few thousand jobs due to competition with China. If we had a trade deal with China there may have still been job losses in the steel industry but opportunities elsewhere. That's what trade deals do (see imports above).

Service industries not being able to recruit the best from the rest of Europe? What a load of twaddle! Industry has always been able to recruit from anywhere in the world if the skillset is not available in the home country. Just look at the Govenor of The Bank of England. He wasn't an EU resident.

I could go on but IMHO we gain nothing from being a member of the EU but have to pay for the privaledge.

Better out.

^ This.

[Big Brian]

One of the biggest scaremongering stories by the Remain Campaign is that if we left the EU, the border would move from Calais to Dover. This is now proven to be untrue. For one thing, the agreement between France and the UK is bi-lateral and cannot be effected by leaving the EU. Another reason is that the Remain Campaign are going against what Hollande and other French Ministers are saying and are still trying to use this tactic. French Ministers have assured the UK that a Brexit will NOT effect the agreement. This is from a French paper in February.

http://www.thelocal.fr/20160208/woul...rder-back-home

Originally Posted by pip08456

EXPORTS:

Do you really think they will stop immediately with a Brexit vote. Yes the trade deal will be renegotiated but the Status Quo will still exist until that time. Germany cannot afford it not to,

IMPORTS

Germany would not to give up that trade but we will be free to negotiate not just with our Commonwealth countries without restriction but also with the rest of the world. Don't forget trade deals are a two way street. I'll buy off you if you buy off me.

This is, as stated before, a gross oversimplification.

Trade deals are a two way street but they are not symmetrical. They can only apply to certain industries, they can allow access to a market for one of the countries but not the other, they can require regulations, they can require laws be passed as a requirement of the agreement and more besides. They are big complicated agreements which is why they can take several years to a decade to agree.

The deal with Canada-EU excludes financial services and took 6 years to negotiate. It also required an overhaul of the Canadian law when it comes to copyright.

These things are not 'I'll buy off you if you buy off me'. We're not playing Civilization here. I know I have said this time and time again on here but then time and time again people have characterized it as 'we'll get a trade deal because Germany sells us cars'.

It is a wildly optimistic scenario. http://www.economist.com/news/britai...le-trade-winds

As for the trade deficit, what matters is the share of exports: some 45% of British exports go to other EU countries, whereas only around 7% of their total exports come to Britain. It is true that German carmakers would want to sell to the British market. But several other countries run bilateral deficits with Britain or barely trade with it at all; a deal would not interest them.

The WTO option would not remove non-tariff barriers, nor even tariffs on many products, such as cars (which attract a levy of around 10%). The Canadian deal does not cover all goods. And both the WTO and Canadian options omit most services, including financial ones, which make up Britain’s biggest exports to the EU. Rival financial centres such as Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin would seize the chance to win back business following Brexit.

Hopes of easy trade deals with the rest of the world also look illusory. Lawyers say Britain would have to replace all the EU’s 53 free-trade pacts, which would be hard with tough negotiators like South Korea or Mexico. Several big countries, including America, China and India, are negotiating new deals with the EU, from which a post-Brexit Britain would be excluded.

https://next.ft.com/content/aba86dce...b-5a6d4728f74e

The campaign for Brexit should be commended for arguing for a free-trading independent Britain rather than a protectionist fortress. But it is deluding the electorate if it believes that a deal with the US — or indeed any other large economy — is there for the taking and can be concluded on advantageous terms to the junior partner.

Successive US administrations have been clear that, across a number of policy areas, they would prefer to deal with the UK inside rather than outside the EU. British voters should heed Mr Froman’s timely warning. Whatever benefits may be gained from the UK leaving the EU, a substantive transatlantic trade treaty is highly unlikely to be among them.

[Osem]

OK so if we disregard everything on both sides that's only supposition regarding 'what will happen if...' we're still left with the undeniable facts of the last 40 years. 40 years of seeing how the EU works, how it responds, how it copes in a crisis and what's its long term intentions and objectives are. Take a long hard look at what they've done, where the EU is right now and where it's heading. Is an epiphany amongst the Eurocrats ahead or will it be more of the same chaos? IMHO these are the fundamental factors involved in the decision. Does the UK tether itself to this or do we do the opposite of what people like Nicky Morgan suggest and open ourselves up to the world.

Some of us have lived through what we were told the EU (EEC) would be and discovered what it was always intended to become, albeit without our knowledge at the time. Anyone who wants to remain within the EU either needs to believe it's a good thing regardless of the widespread chaos we're witnessing or that it will change for the better at some future point when all the evidence of history and previous attempts at reform suggests I won't. Could life outside a floundering, bloated, EU be that bad? It really is as simple as that isn't it?

For me that's enough.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Bored of all of this now.

Can we just through a 20-sided die and if it lands 1-11 we stay, 12-20 we leave?

Be about as representative as the referendum given the level of propaganda and misinformation we're having thrown at us from both sides of the argument.

And we still have 3 more months of lies and negativity yet to go though.

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Bored of all of this now.

Can we just through a 20-sided die and if it lands 1-11 we stay, 12-20 we leave?

Be about as representative as the referendum given the level of propaganda and misinformation we're having thrown at us from both sides of the argument.

1-11 we remain in the cave and get slaughtered by trolls, 12-20 and we leave the cave, get blinded by sunlight and end up forging an uneasy alliance with Vikings (chaotic neutral).

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Chris

1-11 we remain in the cave and get slaughtered by trolls, 12-20 and we leave the cave, get blinded by sunlight and end up forging an uneasy alliance with Vikings (chaotic neutral).

There's a serious lack of true neutral in this debate.

---------- Post added at 13:17 ---------- Previous post was at 13:14 ----------

Originally Posted by denphone

And we still have 3 more months of lies and negativity yet to go though.

Goodie.

Still, it should help generate some jobs at Full Fact.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by techguyone

Much as I'd like to see us exit, I don't think we will, a combination of apathy, fear of change, and the realisation that new trade deals etc won't take * 5 minutes* to set up and there might be a bit of pain will be enough to make sure the IN lot get their way, I'm realistic enough to see this, what will be interesting will be how close it ends up. The Scottish one was a lot closer than I anticipated.

Keep the faith and go and vote to leave. That vote could make all the difference.