[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Osem

They're just doing what they think serves their members best as opposed to what's best for the country and its people.

Let nobody think the EU has our interests at heart any more than we have theirs. They'd rather like the UK to carry on putting vastly more in the we're getting out whilst denying us any of the significant reform we've argued for. They're banking on the electorate being too scared to go it alone which is why they've offered sweet FA by way of real concessions and change. Let's be honest, who wouldn't like to have a club member who pays in more than 99% of the other members do, gets less out, is routinely ignored at the highest level and keeps coming back for more of the same old, same old?...

Like it or not, the only way we can have a meaningful and fair trading relationship with the EU is to call their bluff, get out and let them see how life is without the UK's contribution to their club. I believe we'll have more clout outside than inside because the EU has become accustomed to shafting us while we bend over and ask for more.

Couldn't have put it better myself. Without the UK I believe the EU is doomed, not that it isn't anyway but I mean the end will come quicker without us. What will they do if we leave? Perhaps they will increase the other members donations. If we leave they will be falling over themselves to get a good and fair trade agreement with the UK to try and save their sorry arses.

---------- Post added at 11:54 ---------- Previous post was at 11:49 ----------

Originally Posted by techguyone

I'm still waiting for some people in favour of staying to speak up and put their reasoning forward so as to offer an alternative pov

Can't see that happening. All they can do is spread doom and gloom.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by techguyone

I'm still waiting for some people in favour of staying to speak up and put their reasoning forward so as to offer an alternative pov

Me too. I'd love to be told just how much we benefit from the EU's political dogma, never ending quest for control and one size fits all obsession. They plough on from one crisis to another not only learning nothing but seemingly intent on making matters worse.

For me, whatever the benefits of being part of the club are (and they're clearly far greater for some members than others), they're far outweighed by the financial and other costs of staying in. That'd be true if the EU wasn't heading towards the edge of a precipice but since I believe it is, it's an even more powerful reason for getting out before we're further dragged into chaos with it.

Make no mistake, the costs of the growing migrant crisis are already huge and are only going to get bigger - economically and socially. If we stay in, one way or another, directly or indirectly we're going to be required to pay for Merkel's madness and the EU's inability to see beyond the end of its nose.

Originally Posted by techguyone

I'm still waiting for some people in favour of staying to speak up and put their reasoning forward so as to offer an alternative pov

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Don't hold your breath.

All they have is project fear: Don't let go of nurse, for fear of finding something worse.

Do you mean on here or generally because there are quite a few pro-EU posts on this thread it's just that the forum skews anti-EU so that is more prevalent.


I am the second most frequent poster: http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/mi...ted&t=33700839

[Mr K]

Ok, to redress the balance :-

The problem for out is they have to persuade people how much better things would be outside the EU; even if they do, it's asking people to take a chance/risk. So far it's mainly been how terrible the EU is, not much positive about the alternative.

People know what life inside the EU is like, far from perfect, but relatively stable. Leaving is a gamble and, when it comes to it, people don't like gambles and uncertainty, particularly if it affects jobs and their own prosperity. The outers do tend to me more vocal and certain which might give an skewed view on the state of play. Those that are going to vote to remain are the apathetic silent majority, who probably haven't actually decided they are going to vote that way yet. Past elections and referendums have shown that this group end up voting for 'no change' as the safe option.

The only way i can see an 'out' vote is if there's a low turn out with the apathetic majority not bothering./ or people don't vote on the issue but on the popularity of the Govt. Given that all the main political parties/business/unions will be campaigning for 'in'; and the dangers of 'out' for the next 3 months, I can't see anything else but a remain vote.

[heero_yuy]

But you fail to spell out the "advantages" you see in staying in. Only the fear factor of leaving just like all the pro EU'ers.

Because there is no good argument to staying in the burning building and locking the door.

I think there is a question people will ask of what in their day-to-day life would be made better by leaving the EU and is that worth the risk/uncertainty?

There are a lot of questions about what happens next if we leave. What kind of trade deals would we get? Would the service industry be affected? How long will we be in the state of not knowing, 2 years?

If you're asking someone to disrupt the status-quo in a system in which they're relatively alright then I think you need a less abstract reward than 'sovereignty'.

---------- Post added at 14:08 ---------- Previous post was at 13:59 ----------

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

But you fail to spell out the "advantages" you see in staying in. Only the fear factor of leaving just like all the pro EU'ers.

Because there is no good argument to staying in the burning building and locking the door.

If your argument is that changing the status-quo will make matters worse then that's going to be a fearful argument but it doesn't mean it's invalid. The same was said in the Scottish Referendum, it was all 'Project Fear', but it turns out that some of that scaremongering became true.

Brexit doesn't have the moral high ground here anyway. You've linked stories about witches coming to the UK and ISIS terrorists flooding in from a newly admitted Turkey.

I didn't see everyone on here condemning the Tory election campaign for whipping up fears of a Labour-SNP alliance against Scotland or Miliband 'stabbing the country in the back' either. Not sure where this sudden offence at using fear/uncertainty to win an election comes from but it's been otherwise absent until now.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

But you fail to spell out the "advantages" you see in staying in. Only the fear factor of leaving just like all the pro EU'ers.

Because there is no good argument to staying in the burning building and locking the door.

The advantages are already proven: - free trade, more jobs, low prices, freedom to work in the EU, bigger say on european issues, workers rights.

The advantages of Brexit are an unproved risk.

Leaving would be a disaster. For a start the stock market would spiral downwards hitting most of the populations pensions and investments. That in itself is enough to scare most off - not that that's a positive reason, but it's what people vote on.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Ok, to redress the balance :-

The problem for out is they have to persuade people how much better things would be outside the EU; even if they do, it's asking people to take a chance/risk. So far it's mainly been how terrible the EU is, not much positive about the alternative.

People know what life inside the EU is like, far from perfect, but relatively stable. Leaving is a gamble and, when it comes to it, people don't like gambles and uncertainty, particularly if it affects jobs and their own prosperity. The outers do tend to me more vocal and certain which might give an skewed view on the state of play. Those that are going to vote to remain are the apathetic silent majority, who probably haven't actually decided they are going to vote that way yet. Past elections and referendums have shown that this group end up voting for 'no change' as the safe option.

The only way i can see an 'out' vote is if there's a low turn out with the apathetic majority not bothering./ or people don't vote on the issue but on the popularity of the Govt. Given that all the main political parties/business/unions will be campaigning for 'in'; and the dangers of 'out' for the next 3 months, I can't see anything else but a remain vote.

OK. Fair enough it's a risk. However let's clear up a few things here. Only 5% of business actually trade with the EU. That 5% could easily trade on the world stage. For example how about turning the tables and dumping our steel cheaper on the EU?

Next, as pointed out in an earlier post, Britain is set to pay £375 million a week to the EU by 2020. How many Doctors, Nurses or Hospitals will that employ and build. How much could that money improve the Road and Rail Network?

Next. As you are aware the Government want to abolish the Tampon Tax and the proposed Solar Panel Tax. They can't. It has to be done by the EU Parliament. Why not take back the right to do these things for ourselves?

Finally. What a pessimistic outlook you have there. I've given 3 damn good reasons for voting out.

---------- Post added at 14:39 ---------- Previous post was at 14:29 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

I think there is a question people will ask of what in their day-to-day life would be made better by leaving the EU and is that worth the risk/uncertainty?

There are a lot of questions about what happens next if we leave. What kind of trade deals would we get? Would the service industry be affected? How long will we be in the state of not knowing, 2 years?

If you're asking someone to disrupt the status-quo in a system in which they're relatively alright then I think you need a less abstract reward than 'sovereignty'.

---------- Post added at 14:08 ---------- Previous post was at 13:59 ----------



If your argument is that changing the status-quo will make matters worse then that's going to be a fearful argument but it doesn't mean it's invalid. The same was said in the Scottish Referendum, it was all 'Project Fear', but it turns out that some of that scaremongering became true.

Brexit doesn't have the moral high ground here anyway. You've linked stories about witches coming to the UK and ISIS terrorists flooding in from a newly admitted Turkey.

I didn't see everyone on here condemning the Tory election campaign for whipping up fears of a Labour-SNP alliance against Scotland or Miliband 'stabbing the country in the back' either. Not sure where this sudden offence at using fear/uncertainty to win an election comes from but it's been otherwise absent until now.

To Answer Damien's first point the first thing that will be noticeable is we won't have to go to the EU to change things that are better for the UK. The next thing is we will probably see more money ploughed into the NHS.

Negotiations will begin immediately with the EU on Trade. The EU can't survive without the UK and will be very accommodating regarding trade deals.

Now I don't believe it can get any worse than the status quo. What won't happen if we stay is reform. The EU will be hoping we stay so they don't have to reform. This will stop the others who are murmuring about having their own referenda. If the EU give us reforms then others will hold referenda and threaten to leave.

With the Election tactics in mind, they will use the very same tactics to try to force a Remain vote. Yes, the worrying thing is that people are afraid of change.

[Osem]

There's one great big, undeniable and increasingly serious risk and that's staying in. Why would anyone choose to stay in a bus being driven towards a cliff by a committee of myopic fools arguing the toss about who's in control.

Originally Posted by Osem

There's one great big, undeniable and increasingly serious risk and that's staying in. Why would anyone choose to stay in a bus being driven towards a cliff by a committee of myopic fools arguing the toss about who's in control.

Yet the "stay in" camp are being accused of "Project Fear"...

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Mr K

The advantages are already proven: - free trade, more jobs, low prices, freedom to work in the EU, bigger say on european issues, workers rights.

The advantages of Brexit are an unproved risk.

Leaving would be a disaster. For a start the stock market would spiral downwards hitting most of the populations pensions and investments. That in itself is enough to scare most off - not that that's a positive reason, but it's what people vote on.

Free trade doesn't require membership of the political union.

'More jobs' requires a fair amount more explanation. I'm not aware of any research that links our membership of the political structures of the EU with more jobs, beyond those dependent on the bureaucracy of course.

'Low prices' - on what? Certainly not on products purchased from outside the customs union, those are more expensive due to the tariffs we're obliged to apply in order to protect uncompetitive European producers.

Freedom of movement is indeed an advantage although of course people can and do work in other countries without being in political union with them.

Obviously we would lose our say in European issues, however they wouldn't for the most part be our issues anymore as we wouldn't have to abide by these European decisions.

Workers' rights gets down to another issue. We're a democracy and if we want those and other rights it's simple, we vote for those who will provide them. If others already voted for try and take them away we ensure that they understand this would be a bad idea for their re-election prospects.

If we regard it as a good thing that the EU can overrule our Parliament on the grounds that you or others may like what they have to say some of the time we may as well not bother with democracy at all. Democracy rarely pleases everyone all the time.

As far as unproven risks go what is very clear is that the EU is warming up to hit us with a series of unpopular measures as soon as the referendum is done. That's no unproven risk; the budget is going up, we're going to be paying more of it, unpopular measures are being held back until after our vote. Even things like the rather laughable concessions Cameron won or the 'tampon tax' change can easily be prevented. Especially the 'tampon tax' change, which it seems is a non-starter beyond scoring political points for Cameron and in turn the remain campaign.

So with those in mind still waiting for that positive case. I'm yet to hear anything that suggests political union is a good idea.

If I may ask you something - where are all the other 'Unions' in the world? How come the 500-ish million of us are the only ones who've enacted a political union? Do we know something the rest of the world doesn't? Looking at how the European and especially Eurozone economy is performing compared to the rest of the world I can't say the economics of our decision are clear.

Watching things like this I can't say it seems to be good for international relations either.

EDIT: On your point on the stock market it's a bubble-icious QE-pumped mess, blown up by corporations borrowing to buy back their own shares and large quantities of corporate and private debt. Pensions and investments are already delivering poor returns due to ZIRP. Out of every period of uncertainty come winners and losers and something of an economic reset may actually be beneficial beyond the immediate term.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Yet the "stay in" camp are being accused of "Project Fear"...

Well at least our 'fear' is based on what's actually happened over the last few decades and the refusal of the Eurocrats to get to grips with it or change direction. Frankly, given all that, I'm less frightened by the prospect of the UK charting its own course than relying on those whose political dogma, intransigence and Magoo-like vision has steered us here.

Originally Posted by Mr K

The advantages are already proven: - free trade, more jobs, low prices, freedom to work in the EU, bigger say on european issues, workers rights.

The advantages of Brexit are an unproved risk.

Leaving would be a disaster. For a start the stock market would spiral downwards hitting most of the populations pensions and investments. That in itself is enough to scare most off - not that that's a positive reason, but it's what people vote on.

I can't think of a single thing that this country could not do outside of the EU .Everything from taxation to trade,manufacturing standards to employment law ,nothing in our day to day lives requires us to be in the EU .We can manage perfectly outside of the EU just as most of the world manages outside of the EU .

Correction, there is one thing that we will no longer be able to do and that is blame the EU when our useless politicians make a hash of things .Being outside the EU may in fact make our politicians more accountable when it finally sinks home that the buck stops with them

Originally Posted by Mr K

The advantages are already proven: - free trade, more jobs, low prices, freedom to work in the EU, bigger say on european issues, workers rights.

None of these things is proven. All of them is a comparative with the UK's alternative status outside the EU, and as you say we can't know what that would be like, we can't know whether prices are lower, jobs are more plentiful etc etc inside the EU than outside.

Negotiating a relationship with the EU, having just dumped the relationship we already had, is, naturally, a risk, however the status quo is untenable. The price we pay for the (supposed) benefits of membership is simply too high.

[Mr K]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6942846.html

The loss of £3,700 per household and almost a million jobs -worth it?