[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[Osem]

If the EU's external borders are based in places like Greece as a direct result of Schengen, it does indirectly affect us because it enables illegal migrants to penetrate far deeper into Europe than they otherwise would and wind up in places like Calais which is a lot closer to home than Greece. Instead of facing numerous border checks and the risk of being caught and stopped at each, it's go direct to France or Belgium or Holland. Of course if our borders were really secure it wouldn't matter so much* but they're not so it does.

Schengen also facilitates criminality within the EU as was recently demonstrated after the Paris shootings. Again, it just brings the risk factors to our nearest neighbours rather than keeping more of them on the perimeter of Europe.

*Legality and illegality have come to be irrelevant so far as migration is concerned. Plenty of illegal immigrants wind up being granted asylum in the UK for one reason or another. The guy who walked through the Channel Tunnel recently is one such. So called security isn't much use if people who breach it are rewarded instead of punished.

[Kymmy]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

Do we want the full right and power to govern ourselves without any interference from outside?
The only way to get that (back) is to vote out. It's as simple as that.

But that will hurt us with free trade..

Now where's the SWINGS & ROUNDABOUTS emoticon when you need one.

My main worry about leaving will be being forced back in recession and also how leaving will effect my work. Where as I worry about staying and having now a red card system that could be used very much against us as well as Europe dragging us down when the true cost of the migrant disaster hits...

[Osem]

Why would Europe want to stop selling us their stuff? IIRC we buy more from them than they do from us.
If the argument is that they'll seek to punish the UK (and themselves) for having the temerity to leave the club are they really people we want to be bound to?

Yeah I don't understand how leaving the EU makes us less vulnerable since the EU will still be there with the migration crisis and the border issues. I think if the Leave side is going to accuse the Remain side of scaremongering, which will undoubtably be true in some cases, it can't do the same thing itself.

---------- Post added at 14:46 ---------- Previous post was at 14:41 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

Why would Europe want to stop selling us their stuff? IIRC we buy more from them than they do from us.
If the argument is that they'll seek to punish the UK (and themselves) for having the temerity to leave the club are they really people we want to be bound to?

Services is the bigger question: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/42305fa4-a...#axzz40oWaDHtR

[Osem]

Both sides are going to do the same thing obviously.

Services - can't read the FT article but are we saying that the Germans will expect us to buy their cars and the French their wine but somehow decide not to deal with the City?

Still waiting for someone to tell me why a migration cap couldn't have solved the biggest problem of all.

[Kymmy]

Originally Posted by Osem

Why would Europe want to stop selling us their stuff? IIRC we buy more from them than they do from us.

Import duty for starters, try adding 10-20% on anything coming from the EU. Also our goods to them would be dearer..

Originally Posted by Osem

If the argument is that they'll seek to punish the UK (and themselves) for having the temerity to leave the club are they really people we want to be bound to?

It's not punishment but instead the cost of doing standard business with the rest of the world. If we're not in the club then we shouldn't expect the benefits from the club and being in that club for 40+ years has skewed costs of products, services...etc.. for a number of those years to a point where we don;t expect it to change yet change it will if we leave. So on that account we can either take the increased costs hoping that the rest of the world will try to step into the gap and offer us cheap goods/services.. or we can stay in the status quo and have freedom of trade with the rest of the EU.

Originally Posted by Osem

Both sides are going to do the same thing obviously.

True but I think we can call it as we see it rather than have to believe or defend the side that we're backing. I will vote to stay - that isn't going to surprise anyone - but I know some of the stuff the In campaign will say is nonsense. I know that we'll work with the EU to trade intelligence information irrespective of the vote because it's insane not too, especially since we have one of the bigger intelligence agencies of the world.

Likewise I think IDS is wrong about us being more safe out of the EU. Why? Us leaving will still mean the EU exists.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Kymmy

Import duty for starters, try adding 10-20% on anything coming from the EU. Also our goods to them would be dearer..



It's not punishment but instead the cost of doing standard business with the rest of the world. If we're not in the club then we shouldn't expect the benefits from the club and being in that club for 40+ years has skewed costs of products, services...etc.. for a number of those years to a point where we don;t expect it to change yet change it will if we leave. So on that account we can either take the increased costs hoping that the rest of the world will try to step into the gap and offer us cheap goods/services.. or we can stay in the status quo and have freedom of trade with the rest of the EU.

Well yes that action would result in retaliation, hence my point. Any levies imposed on our goods would be balanced by levies we'd make on theirs. Not ideal clearly but they'd still lose more than us and some UK business would be boosted by home produced goods being relatively cheaper than theirs. Don't get me wrong, it's not something I'd recommend or something that's even necessary. I don't see why the EU would do that, especially knowing that the Germans would be the main losers since they are I believe the biggest EU seller into the UK by a country mile.

I don't see any reason for the above to happen when it would suit all the struggling EU economies to come to a mutually beneficial arrangement with the UK. Let's face it, as with expats, if the UK leaves, both sides are going to have to negotiate all sorts of new agreements.

[Kymmy]

Originally Posted by Osem

Well yes that action would result in retaliation, hence my point. Any levies imposed on our goods would be balanced by levies we'd make on theirs.

The costs though are to us and benefit the government as import duty will be paid by the importers, then put on the cost and then VAT is paid on top of all that.. So the governments benefit, the economy benefits but the general person in the street pays for it all.

It would be interesting to see if we could get any good deals from the worlds workforces and producers ..China, Russia, USA, India..etc and also whether the EU would try to block those deals..

There's so much as to which we can only guess at, some good and some bad which coupled with the things we don't need to guess at is why the stay campaign is currently leading but with the leave group not far behind..

I'm still middle of the road with an erring towards the stay side but will make my choice on what else comes to light between now and the referendum

---------- Post added at 15:09 ---------- Previous post was at 15:07 ----------

Originally Posted by Kymmy

It would be interesting to see if we could get any good deals from the worlds workforces and producers ..China, Russia, USA, India..etc and also whether the EU would try to block those deals..

One interesting viewpoint will be that by leaving the groups that Farage wants to keep out of the UK (mainly migrants from 3rd world countries) will have an even playing field for work as EU people will have to apply the same as them if we leave

[Osem]

Yes it's certainly not certain but that's what uncharted territory is like.

I really do share all the doubts but have an overriding belief that the EU is doomed and if we're going to go down I'd rather we did so having steered our own course to destruction not theirs.

The BBC are reporting Boris will back the Out campaign.

The official announcement is coming at 10pm tonight when the colour of the smoke coming from his chimney will indicate for sure which side he has chosen.

[Kymmy]

The only way the EU is doomed is if it doesn't get it's backside into gear over the migrant issue. Borders should have been shut down a long time ago with migrants instantly being returned to whichever country they attempted to enter the EU from.

I'd love for Germany, France and the UK to form their own EU which is purely based on free trade but not based on legal/political/currency aspirations. For me the EU has over-reached in allowing all countries to enter based on an equal footing even when their trade is no-where near equal. Internal migration borders should have been restricted based on proof of skilled/needed work or monetary independence.

The economies of the smaller countries that have either only got over their own dictators less than 50 years ago and or soviet dominance should never have been allowed on an equal footing.

The EU itself is an experiment that needs resetting in it's entirety and not just by one country leaving and letting it continue without a main member. Whether or not a reset would work is another matter and just an extreme thought from my little bwain

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Kymmy

How though will it make the UK more vulnerable?

Ever closer union, which is what we will gradually get if we vote to stay in, will force us to open our borders to more and more dodgy muslim nutcases......sorry, I meant to say 'refugees'

Coming out of the EU might actually stop intelligence being passed to us regarding EU terrorists.

"might".......might not

Again only one side is put on the table.. a bit like the Cameron quote about the Jungle not being Policed if we leave so all the migrants will be free to come through the chunnel.

That Cameron quote did make me laugh

---------- Post added at 15:54 ---------- Previous post was at 15:50 ----------

Originally Posted by Kymmy

But that will hurt us with free trade..

It won't. The EU will not stop buying & selling with us (they are up sh*t street economically so it would hurt them more to act up trade-wise) and we will be free to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world.

---------- Post added at 15:56 ---------- Previous post was at 15:54 ----------

Originally Posted by Kymmy

Import duty for starters, try adding 10-20% on anything coming from the EU. Also our goods to them would be dearer

So we simply negotiate a UK/EU trade deal that removes import duty bilaterally.

[Escapee]

Originally Posted by Kymmy

The costs though are to us and benefit the government as import duty will be paid by the importers, then put on the cost and then VAT is paid on top of all that.. So the governments benefit, the economy benefits but the general person in the street pays for it all.

The Germans would either have to reduce the cost of the products they sell in the UK or risk losing sales. I think it would be the consumer who ultimately dictates if the scenario happens.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Kymmy

The EU itself is an experiment that needs resetting in it's entirety and not just by one country leaving and letting it continue without a main member. Whether or not a reset would work is another matter and just an extreme thought from my little bwain

I'm sure it would work but I'm equally sure that it will never happen.