Liberty Global 2015 Results - 16 Feb

[djfunkdup]

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Originally Posted by Horizon

I know what you was referring to.

I've had a long history on here of being critical of VM, especially their tv service and especially their stbs. You find them good, that's fine. I don't and the fact that VM's tv numbers are falling suggests there must some reason for this. Perhaps its just more people using Freeview and streaming. But Sky aren't having these problems - yet.

http://www.seenit.co.uk/virgin-media...g-tv-sign-ups/

Virgin Media’s UK arm added just 900 TV subscribers during the three months ending December 31st, a fraction of the 21,500 who joined in the same quarter a year earlier.

Whilst 900 isn't much, it's still a growth figure, so I am not sure that your statement that the TV numbers are falling is a fact (the growth in numbers is falling, but not the actual TV numbers).

[steveh]

Still looks rather poor compared to the 146,000 new TV customers Sky signed up in their last quarter though.

https://corporate.sky.com/documents/...ss-release.pdf

[denphone]

Indeed it is but Sky has a awful lot of cash to throw away to attract new customers..

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by Hugh

http://www.seenit.co.uk/virgin-media...g-tv-sign-ups/
Whilst 900 isn't much, it's still a growth figure, so I am not sure that your statement that the TV numbers are falling is a fact (the growth in numbers is falling, but not the actual TV numbers).

2014 TV Customers: 3,760,300
2015 TV Customers: 3,727,000

Originally Posted by Horizon

2014 TV Customers: 3,760,300
2015 TV Customers: 3,727,000

Thank you for those figures, I didn't see them - I am confused how they have also reported an increase of Enhanced Video Customers of 900, then?

[denphone]

If those figures are true then Virgin seriously need to pull their socks up to attract more TV customers to their platform in my opinion.

[steveh]

Maybe there is no longer any business case for Liberty Global investing seriously in TV in the UK?

In Freeview this country has a free, high quality TV distribution system which some other territories do not, so you're not forced down the cable route here. The free-to-air channels from the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Five are still where the biggest audiences are and most people still prefer local programming. On-demand from them is also available free - and now comes on most TVs too.

In the pay TV market, Sky have caught Virgin in a pincer movement between a budget Now TV (which Virgin probably can't match on wholesale price from Sky) and the top-end Sky Q (which those who want to personally own the best hardware will always choose over cable, no matter how good any new TiVo is). The market for Virgin between them is shrinking too.

New entrants from the paid streaming services are going all out for market share by providing a premium quality experience at a budget price that is subsidised by venture capital funds or other parts of their business. Long term probably only Sky is capable of standing up to the US tech heavyweights. Finally, the most attractive content (sport, movies, quality drama) is already tied up in long term deals elsewhere so Virgin have no route by offering exclusives either.

Under those circumstances doing all except the minimum needed to milk the existing customer base while it's still viable could be seen as foolhardy. Much better to focus on broadband as the cash cow - especially as here only four companies now control over 90% of the market and one of them probably won't survive much longer.

[Kushan]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Thank you for those figures, I didn't see them - I am confused how they have also reported an increase of Enhanced Video Customers of 900, then?

My best guess is that overall TV subscribers have declined, but they've sold 900 more TiVo boxes or something?

[Chad]

Originally Posted by Horizon

2014 TV Customers: 3,760,300
2015 TV Customers: 3,727,000

Virgin have gone totally stagnant. Here's their first quarter results from 2010:

http://dtg.org.uk/news/news.html?id=3745

2010 TV Customers: 3,729,600

They've gone nowhere over the past 6 years!

Originally Posted by denphone

If those figures are true then Virgin seriously need to pull their socks up to attract more TV customers to their platform in my opinion.

What more can Virgin really do? Since the first quarter of 2010 they have launched:

TiVo - Possibly the best PVR on the British market over the past 5 years
BT Sports for "free" in XL package
Virgin TV Anywhere
Added SKY Sports and SKY Movies in HD
Expanded their on demand content including SKY Movies on demand
The first pay TV provider to offer Netflix on the platform
Doubled their HD channel line-up

Virgin have done their best to try and keep up with other TV providers. I honestly can't see adding things like SKY Atlantic, missing HD channels and freeview channels making any real difference at all.

There's clearly some other issue. Prices too high? TV packages not attractive? Complete saturation in cabled areas? TalkTalk, BT and SKY have each added over a million new customers during the same period.

Will a new TiVo box later this year change anything? The last 6 years suggest no. The sooner Virgin can make their services available in new areas the better. This is the only way I can see them growing their TV numbers.

[Gavin78]

I don't find sky any cheaper really when I looked at sky comparing my package to get the same with them minus the BB which they only did 76mb I think the price turned out to be about £5 cheaper a month.

However on top of this there was a £30 installation fee plus a few £££ for a sky box so would have worked out a lot more in the end.

The only downside with VM is the 2 or 3 times a year price rises offsetting line rental as an excuse for gaining more money and put the price up again 6 months later because they might have added sky 1 +1 to the package.

Toppled with the fact the Tivo boxes are so slow at doing anything which I thought they might have done something about that now seen as they can release new modems every year or 2 but can't updated their tv boxes.

You know what the problem is people are getting streaming boxes these days legit ones and not so legit ones

[steveh]

Originally Posted by Chad

Will a new TiVo box later this year change anything? The last 6 years suggest no. The sooner Virgin can make their services available in new areas the better. This is the only way I can see them growing their TV numbers.

The latest figures quote 162,700 new homes passed, so that hasn't helped either.

We did have a pretty serious recession and there has been no increase in incomes for 11 years while house prices and rents have gone up massively. I assume people setting up homes for the first time are a big chunk of new customers and with little spare cash basic broadband plus a Netflix and / or a Now TV sub is rather more attractive.

Most of Sky's 146,000 new customers in the last quarter were for Now TV or lower packages and the company's average revenue per user is also flat.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by Chad

2010 TV Customers: 3,729,600

They've gone nowhere over the past 6 years!

But in 2010, a fair slice of those weren't paying anything. The numbers on M-pack are now greatly reduced.

Which is a game that TalkTalk now play. A few months back they sent me a TV box, completely unsolicited. I haven't even opened the package. Last week while haggling with their Sales team I told them I didn't want it, and they've sent me a letter basically saying how disappointed they are (and hints that I might get an early-disconnect fee in my next bill. We shall see)

[denphone]

Is Virgin Media just managing decline in its TV customer base?.

http://www.seenit.co.uk/virgin-media...aging-decline/

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Thank you for those figures, I didn't see them - I am confused how they have also reported an increase of Enhanced Video Customers of 900, then?

That's the accountants.....

For the 3 months ended December 2015, they grew their numbers by 900 as compared to the previous quarter, so technically it's not a lie. But comparing the quarter ending December 2015 with the quarter ending 2014 shows their numbers are dropping.

Similar tactics are happening with the US cablecos. THey are losing tv customers due to cord cutting. I'd suggest VM's numbers are the beginning of this trend and will further drop year-on-year allowing for variations between quarters.

The whole problem with UK cable tv throughout its history is that Sky has always been better and now with cord cutting beginning, VM's tv business will come under further pressure, I believe.