[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Sirius

"get us to hell OUT"

That's not as easy as the kippers would have us believe and this utopia where we get the best of both worlds like "Norway" is hogwash to, this is the sort of thing we need to have a sensible, adult conversation about in the run up to referendum but sadly it's beyond most politicians.

Another thing is did Dave say we were having a referendum or did he say we'd have one if he couldn't get reforms, I can't remember if he has said both just remember the latter.

[Taf]

Cameron is saying that changes to Tax Credits need to happen. I bet he will come back claiming victory reducing Tax Credits EU citizens can claim here.... after they get slashed by the Chancellor for UK citizens.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

That's not as easy as the kippers would have us believe and this utopia where we get the best of both worlds like "Norway" is hogwash to, this is the sort of thing we need to have a sensible, adult conversation about in the run up to referendum but sadly it's beyond most politicians.

Another thing is did Dave say we were having a referendum or did he say we'd have one if he couldn't get reforms, I can't remember if he has said both just remember the latter.

My understanding is that Cameron will seek the reforms and then we get to vote on whether we want to remain in the EU with the new conditions in place ,I think if he gets the reforms he wants he will campaign to stay in ,if he doesn't get the reforms he will campaign to leave

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

That's not as easy as the kippers would have us believe and this utopia where we get the best of both worlds like "Norway" is hogwash to, this is the sort of thing we need to have a sensible, adult conversation about in the run up to referendum but sadly it's beyond most politicians.

Another thing is did Dave say we were having a referendum or did he say we'd have one if he couldn't get reforms, I can't remember if he has said both just remember the latter.

Both. However he will get some reforms. It's not in the EU's interest not to concede at all or at least not to pretend that they've conceded some ground. I think Cameron will win some meaningful concessions over benefits and then they'll dress up existing policies as new. For example a state doesn't have to open themselves to free movement from a newly joined state right away and I can see Cameron coming back with an 'assurance' of a 'waiting period' when the next member joins. I think he will also get another meaningless assurance that we won't have to sign up to the Euro.

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Damien

Both. However he will get some reforms. It's not in the EU's interest not to concede at all or at least not to pretend that they've conceded some ground. I think Cameron will win some meaningful concessions over benefits and then they'll dress up existing policies as new. For example a state doesn't have to open themselves to free movement from a newly joined state right away and I can see Cameron coming back with an 'assurance' of a 'waiting period' when the next member joins. I think he will also get another meaningless assurance that we won't have to sign up to the Euro.

I will treat the referendum as I did the election. Ignore all the rubbish in the polls and on telly. I already have a good idea how I will vote and it will take something major to change my mind.

[ianch99]

I am thinking the decision is similar to the Scottish independence vote where the voters were offered a choice of a rosy, independant future based on little hard evidence and no guarantees. In the end, they stayed with the devil they know (for now).

Maybe this is a similar choice: the consequences of leaving/staying in need to spelt out clearly and in terms that most people can understand. Can the politicians do this this without falling back on the emotive arguments, probably not.

One this is certain, the EU is dead man walking at the moment. It need radical overhaul to become a reason to stay in. If this is seen to be happening then I think the vote will be a stay in outcome especially if Dave get some concessions on economic migrants.

[Pierre]

We won't get the reforms.

The big one, freedom of movement, is a fundemental principal the EU is founded on.

Anything that requires treaty change will be avoided, because in many other nations that may also trigger a referendum.

No, Cameron will only get small beer.

[ianch99]

The EU has to change and I think Germany knows this. They are scared at the prospect of the UK leaving. France is dragging the EU down and I suspect Germany is getting fed up of underwriting the whole show.

[Gavin78]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...s-Britain.html

The above link was in the DM today. I know it's not the most reliable paper for information but it rings true.

David Cameron's hopes of securing changes to the EU's treaties within the next two years were left in tatters this morning after France and Germany stitched up a secret deal bypassing the UK to tighten their grip on Europe.
The Prime Minister held talks with the European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker at Chequers last night – pushing his plan to overhaul Britain's relationship with Brussels before holding an in/our referendum in 2017.
But he was left humiliated after a pact between French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel was leaked ruling out the need for EU treaty change – a key plank of Mr Cameron's planned renegotiation.

[Osem]

Nothing would surprise me. I really don't see 'negotiations', whether in good faith or not, yielding significant change so the EU will carry on regardless of reality until the whole thing implodes. I don't for one minute believe we will be immune to the fallout but right now I do think we're better getting off a juggernaut heading for disaster than staying on board with our fingers crossed. If it turns out that DC has been misled I think he should be man enough to stand up and tell us rather than perpetuate this sort of duplicity with more weasel words.

The question has been decided! Yes to stay in the EU, No to leave. Essentially the Government has learnt from the Scottish referendum that 'Yes' is a better campaign than 'No' .

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by ianch99

The EU has to change and I think Germany knows this. They are scared at the prospect of the UK leaving. France is dragging the EU down and I suspect Germany is getting fed up of underwriting the whole show.

Germany is fine with this so long as they can keep overproducing and selling their underpriced exports to the rest of the Eurozone.

#1 beneficiary of the Euro has been Germany by a long way. No EU, no Euro.

[Gavin78]

Well look what Germany is doing with Greece they have them held to ransom, we dont want to be going down that road

[Matth]

I'm pretty solid on voting "OUT" unless we get more concessions than they are ever likely to give - even though we are a net CONTRIBUTOR - so we should bang that drum mercilessly in pursuit of a deal that works for us!

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Matth

I'm pretty solid on voting "OUT" unless we get more concessions than they are ever likely to give - even though we are a net CONTRIBUTOR - so we should bang that drum mercilessly in pursuit of a deal that works for us!

Same here