Will VM be short for Vodafone Media?

[Ben B]

Originally Posted by jb66

What's so hard about flicking the 4g switch on while the other work is carried out?

Probably money as always and not wanting to pay EE for more capacity than they need to

[qasdfdsaq]

Cost. Like I previously said VM already do 4G for their business customers.

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I would put the combinations as:
1) BT, EE (Would broadband market share be an issue?)

You called that one right! Personally, I thought BT would take O2 back under its wings.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Horizon

You called that one right! Personally, I thought BT would take O2 back under its wings.

Thanks. 50% chance. I thought O2 was more youth-oriented than EE so EE was a better fit. Will be interesting to see how the other players react. Maybe Liberty Global could sell Vodafone its European interests, keep its Latin American interests and the tax losses inherited from VM?

[Horizon]

I think the tax thing is key here actually, and that is what will be attractive to any buyer of Liberty/VM. But I'd imagine the offsetting of the tax losses would stay with VM though. I don't see how Liberty could keep them if VM were sold to someone else.

But as we're playing fantasy who will merge with whom next, I've not seen anyone suggest a Vodafone/Sky combination. So there, I just have, just for fun! But yeah, it is interesting to see what happens next. I've not seen any speculation about Talktalk. I am sure they would not want to miss out on the mobile musical chairs party.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Horizon

I think the tax thing is key here actually, and that is what will be attractive to any buyer of Liberty/VM. But I'd imagine the offsetting of the tax losses would stay with VM though. I don't see how Liberty could keep them if VM were sold to someone else.

But as we're playing fantasy who will merge with whom next, I've not seen anyone suggest a Vodafone/Sky combination. So there, I just have, just for fun! But yeah, it is interesting to see what happens next. I've not seen any speculation about Talktalk. I am sure they would not want to miss out on the mobile musical chairs party.

LibertyGlobal can keep the company and just sell the assets of VM. But there are lots of companies within the VM group so in reality I assume it could sell the operating companies and keep the holding companies which ahve the tax losses in them.
Vodafone/Sky combination is an issue in Germany and ultimately Fox will surely buy Sky so unlikely.
But similar customer profile. Unlike Vodafone/TalkTalk.

[Ignitionnet]

Just FYI this has suddenly become somewhat more 'urgent' with the news about BT and EE.

Money seems to be on BT-EE, VM-Vodafone, Sky-Three, TalkTalk-O2.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Just FYI this has suddenly become somewhat more 'urgent' with the news about BT and EE.

Money seems to be on BT-EE, VM-Vodafone, Sky-Three, TalkTalk-O2.

You mean LG-Vodafone? or do you think LG will spin off VM?

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Just FYI this has suddenly become somewhat more 'urgent' with the news about BT and EE.

Money seems to be on BT-EE, VM-Vodafone, Sky-Three, TalkTalk-O2.

Indeed, but after this wave after consolidation, then the real mega mergers start, me thinks.

There are the incumbent European telcos for a start, and its interesting that Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom will own a part of BT if the BT buyout of EE goes ahead. Could this be a future signal to a three way tie up between the 3 biggest European telecos as a defensive measure against Murdoch and others?? And there are all the other European telcos too like Telefonica, KPN etc.

Then there are the US majors who can't grow any more in their home markets as they're already as big as they can go, so perhaps they'll be looking for overseas investments. So perhaps we'll see AT&T, Disney, Comcast et all getting involved in the European telco/ISP/mobile/tv markets.

I think in the end brand will be key. Today we see BT as a British telephone company and Sky as a satellite tv company. I think that will all change - it is already and you'll get your favourite brand but whatever methods are available and the lines between ISP, teleco, cable tv, mobile, satellite will just disappear.

---------- Post added at 15:32 ---------- Previous post was at 15:28 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

LibertyGlobal can keep the company and just sell the assets of VM. But there are lots of companies within the VM group so in reality I assume it could sell the operating companies and keep the holding companies which ahve the tax losses in them.

If LG keep the tax losses for themselves, then I'd assume they'd have to keep the debt too, so I think Malone would either sell the whole lot or not.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Pierre

You mean LG-Vodafone? or do you think LG will spin off VM?

Vodafone buy LG and sell the bits that don't benefit them going forward. Was just using VM-Vodafone as shorthand.

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Vodafone/Sky combination is an issue in Germany and ultimately Fox will surely buy Sky so unlikely.
But similar customer profile. Unlike Vodafone/TalkTalk.

Yeah, the German regulators are making a lot of noise about various things. But we are all in the EU, for now, so EU law would override their issues. You can't have a free market, then complain when the free market does what it wants, within reason of course.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Vodafone buy LG and sell the bits that don't benefit them going forward. Was just using VM-Vodafone as shorthand.

Not quite that simple though is it. Vodafone are still saddled with all bits of C&W they didn't want several years after buying them.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Horizon

There are the incumbent European telcos for a start, and its interesting that Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom will own a part of BT if the BT buyout of EE goes ahead. Could this be a future signal to a three way tie up between the 3 biggest European telecos as a defensive measure against Murdoch and others?? And there are all the other European telcos too like Telefonica, KPN etc.

It's a signal that BT don't have £12.5 billion in cash handy and have to finance part of the acquisition in shares.

Telefonica want out of the UK market, that's why they want shot of O2's mobile business having gotten rid of the ISP/landline business. KPN seem to be focusing on retail more and network operations less. Given KPN was recently protected from a hostile takeover by the Dutch government the odds of them giving up the company, it's worth less than £10 billion, as a minority partner in a merger with a larger UK business seem slim.

---------- Post added at 15:40 ---------- Previous post was at 15:39 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

Not quite that simple though is it. Vodafone are still saddled with all bits of C&W they didn't want several years after buying them.

Another option is to spin them off into separate businesses. Not really an option with sections of C&W while cable companies are somewhat more self-contained.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Another option is to spin them off into separate businesses. Not really an option with sections of C&W while cable companies are somewhat more self-contained.

Again I'll caveat this, anything can happen.

But if you look at it sensibly, all this proposed consolidation is mainly UK centric.

Would Vodafone really want to pay £80Billion for Liberty, when all they would reallly be interested in is VM? If they sold off the other parts of of Liberty they didn't want would they find a buyer that returned what they paid for them.

Why risk that kind of money when it's not even been proven that the consumer wants quad play?

Vodafone will be able to compete with BT in regards to quad play with their own mobile network v EE, and fixed line broadband and TV on the same platform as BT (perhaps securing content deals with Sky) without blowing £80b on Liberty.

Likewise,
Liberty can continue across Europe with their cable infrastructure and MVNO model.

I don't see the tie up as being as attractive or inevitable as the city vultures make out.

Buy hey, what do I know?

[Horizon]

...that's what forums are for guessing about things like this on cold winter days!

Personally, I don't think Liberty would want to hive things off. They've stated their policy is to consolidate the European cable industry and then sell it off to a suitable buyer when they think the time is right. It would seem odd that they have gone to the effort of buying separate cable cos and trying to integrate some things together, only to split it all up again.

If Vodafone see continuing growth in what they already do, they won't make a move. But if they believe that "content" aka programming is key, then they will have to morph into a different company than what they are now. Whether that involves Liberty, who knows.