BT to buy EE - impact on VMobile?

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Horizon

But its no secret that BT wanted back into mobile, the only reason it got rid of O2 to begin with was debt. Talking of which.... BT going to war with Sky over football rights won't be good for their long term cash reserves. There you go, another thing you seen first here! And of course all the "experts" are saying buy BT shares....which is the biggest red flag there is.

Well, if first means over a month after Morgan Stanley downgraded BT due to precisely that issue.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/m...ck-rating.html



---------- Post added at 08:49 ---------- Previous post was at 08:48 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

Vodafone can't buy "Virgin" they would have to buy Liberty Global, which they have already said doesn't fit in with their plans because there are a lot of Liberty companies in countries where vodafone have no interests.

Vodafone could certainly buy LGI and then put the bits they don't want up for sale, or they could offer LGI a shedload of cash in return for parting with their new baby.

If rumours are to be believed they have already bid.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by qasdfdsaq

That RAN is backhauled by VM though, and BT won't like that. They're still bitter about the loss of those contracts to VM in the first place, but once they own the mobile network that chose VM over them... Hmm.

I wonder if the regulators will make them give up a portion of the 2.6Ghz spectrum, now that the combined company will own two-thirds of the total 2.6Ghz band

and VM installed a brand new purpose built network off the back of the project.

If BT wanted to take it back, which they probably could in time, I'm pretty sure they would have to invest in such a network to handle it.

Anyway, again, this is not a done deal...yet

---------- Post added at 08:57 ---------- Previous post was at 08:53 ----------

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Vodafone could certainly buy LGI and then put the bits they don't want up for sale, or they could offer LGI a shedload of cash in return for parting with their new baby.

If rumours are to be believed they have already bid.

Not so much rumours, but "rumour".

Lke I say, it wouldn't suprise me, but I don't see what the attraction is for Liberty, unless Vodafone are going to pay loads a dosh for it.

Originally Posted by Pierre

and VM installed a brand new purpose built network off the back of the project.

If BT wanted to take it back, which they probably could in time, I'm pretty sure they would have to invest in such a network to handle it.

Anyway, again, this is not a done deal...yet

---------- Post added at 08:57 ---------- Previous post was at 08:53 ----------



Not so much rumours, but "rumour".

Lke I say, it wouldn't suprise me, but I don't see what the attraction is for Liberty, unless Vodafone are going to pay loads a dosh for it.

There is nothing coming out of the bigger investment houses and the share price doesn't indicate that something is going on?

[qasdfdsaq]

If the share price indicated there was something going on that something going on would be insider trading.

Originally Posted by qasdfdsaq

If the share price indicated there was something going on that something going on would be insider trading.

Eh, it's called speculation, you see a news story and take a gamble on it becoming a reality as more people gamble, the share price goes up. It's generally a good indicator.

When noise started happening re Vodafone and Liberty last month, Liberty shares went up by about 5 dollars I think, they have now dropped a couple of dollars

[Ignitionnet]

Speculation already priced in, then.

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Well, if first means over a month after Morgan Stanley downgraded BT due to precisely that issue.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/m...ck-rating.html

Morgan Stanley? Never heard of them.

---------- Post added at 08:49 ---------- Previous post was at 08:48 ----------

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Vodafone could certainly buy LGI and then put the bits they don't want up for sale, or they could offer LGI a shedload of cash in return for parting with their new baby.

If rumours are to be believed they have already bid.

If an actual bid were to happen, it would have to be disclosed to the market. Perhaps they're talking on the sidelines but anything serious and they would have to announce it.

If I were a Vodafone shareholder, the first question I would ask in regards to VM, is why would Vodafone be interested in a network that only covers 50% of the country? The next question I would ask is why has VM's tv customer numbers been flat and so on.

I don't see a Vodafone/Liberty tie-up as a done deal by any stretch.

[qasdfdsaq]

Originally Posted by Horizon

If I were a Vodafone shareholder, the first question I would ask in regards to VM, is why would Vodafone be interested in a network that only covers 50% of the country?

Do you see any other players in the market with bigger coverage? Last I knew the only other cable providers cover less than 10% of the country put together.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Horizon

If I were a Vodafone shareholder, the first question I would ask in regards to VM, is why would Vodafone be interested in a network that only covers 50% of the country? The next question I would ask is why has VM's tv customer numbers been flat and so on.

I don't see a Vodafone/Liberty tie-up as a done deal by any stretch.

For a start a nice big, fat data network with a whole bunch of assets custom built for backhauling the EE network.

Next while the VM access network only covers ~45% of the population it's close to a lot more of the population so potentially for 'relatively' inexpensive expansion is good.

Vodafone bought Kabel Deutschland, who pass about 15.3 million premises in a country of over 40 million premises. Any complaint about VM's population coverage applies to a greater extent to that deal.

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by qasdfdsaq

Do you see any other players in the market with bigger coverage?

Nope.

Originally Posted by qasdfdsaq

Last I knew the only other cable providers cover less than 10% of the country put together.

I think in time, City Fibre, Hyperoptic et all will gain greater share, but it'll take a long time. So, yes the only real cable player is VM.

---------- Post added at 19:49 ---------- Previous post was at 19:39 ----------

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

For a start a nice big, fat data network with a whole bunch of assets custom built for backhauling the EE network.

Next while the VM access network only covers ~45% of the population it's close to a lot more of the population so potentially for 'relatively' inexpensive expansion is good.

Vodafone bought Kabel Deutschland, who pass about 15.3 million premises in a country of over 40 million premises. Any complaint about VM's population coverage applies to a greater extent to that deal.

I think if Vodafone were to actually put some real dosh into expanding the network, then yes for all intents and purposes, the cable network would reach the bulk of the population who live in towns and cities.

I am not disagreeing that the cable network isn't a great asset, it just needs to be in the right hands. I'm not entirely sure if Vodafone are the right hands, though. But at least they're getting experience in Germany with running cablecos.

One of VM's major weaknesses has been in business services. With a largely empty network during the day, they haven't exploited what they've got, so perhaps Vodafone could make use of this.

[Ken W]

Originally Posted by Russ

I'm quite surprised none of our 'connected' members knew this was coming (unless of course they did but were "sworn to secrecy"), not sure I trust BT to run a mobile network seeing as they bought out of one over 10 years ago. Still they will be able to offer a fixed line too so let's see how it goes.

I don't trust BT at all!

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Russ

not sure I trust BT to run a mobile network seeing as they bought out of one over 10 years ago.

I'm struggling to follow your point. Are you saying that because BT split into two companies (BT and MMO2) in 2002, BT won't be able to run EE? By buying EE, surely BT will have acquired all the expertise needed to run a mobile network successfully?

[Hom3r]

I will soon as possible br telling EE to "Go Forth and Multiply".

So they can be bought and asset striped and closed for all I care.

[qasdfdsaq]

Originally Posted by Horizon

Nope.
I think in time, City Fibre, Hyperoptic et all will gain greater share, but it'll take a long time.

Not a chance. They'll be bought up long before that ever happens.

---------- Post added at 10:33 ---------- Previous post was at 09:48 ----------

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

For a start a nice big, fat data network with a whole bunch of assets custom built for backhauling the EE network.

Eh, that's the one backhaul contract likely to end the soonest if BT get their way, EE's deal was for another 5 years while O2 and 3 both use VM backhaul too and O2 have 9 years left on their 10-year contract.

Plus didn't Vodafone just buy up C&W exactly for the fat data network and how much would BT really want somebody who's going to become a major competitor in both the fixed and mobile space holding up their operations?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by qasdfdsaq

Eh, that's the one backhaul contract likely to end the soonest if BT get their way,

If their network can handle it. Let's not forget that the MBNL network was purpose built by VM to ensure it could handle current traffic volumes and was scaleable for LTE.

Also let's not forget that Three have a stake in MBNL too.

I'm not sure about the structure but I think it is MBNL that Virgin have a contract with not EE or 3?