Ukraine on the verge of civil war!

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by peanut

The Russian military has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until 03:00 GMT to surrender or face an assault, Ukrainian defence sources have said. - BBC News

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26424738

Here comes the ugly phase

Don't surrender. Let Russians make the assault if they want. Russia probably getting upset that Ukrainian forces haven't attacked them yet and are getting itch feet waiting for a pretext.

Hopefully this a bluff.

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Obama needs to do something already.

[thenry]

Will Usmanov do something? He has Gazprom in his hand which supplies Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Osem

My worry is who gets the blame for Putin's stupidity, if that's what it is. Whether he can sufficiently manipulate public opinion to gain support or not, either way it could be very bad news. It'd be nice to think that there'd be those within the upper echelons who'd ensure his prompt and painless removal from office if things got worse but how realistic is that? He's managed to stay put in one form or another for quite some time so must have some very influential friends. Maybe I just need to be less pessimistic...

The man and his cronies have a vast fortune stashed away in off shore accounts.Whatever happens they will get to enjoy that money whilst Russia goes to rat turds.

Well. We're all dead.

Originally Posted by Damien

Don't surrender. Let Russians make the assault if they want. Russia probably getting upset that Ukrainian forces haven't attacked them yet and are getting itch feet waiting for a pretext.

Hopefully this a bluff.

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Obama needs to do something already.

The soldiers in the compounds will have been talking through the fence with the Russians outside. You could see as much in the BBC's report last night.

They will have been told what's afoot, they will have been told they can stay in their compounds and keep their honour, and as long as nobody starts waving a rifle about, the Russians will break the gates down early tomorrow morning and 'deport' the soldiers to Kiev.

We are witnessing the partition of Ukraine. It won't end in Crimea but I don't believe even Putin is mad enough to take it all the way to Kiev. He wants a Russian-friendly satellite on the Black Sea because otherwise his navy is screwed. A Russian-friendly East Ukraine, or more likely a series of autonomous republics, like Crimea, will give him that. The Westerners can then get on with cosying up to the EU.

It's just good old fashioned Soviet spheres of influence, deployed by a good old fashioned Soviet who doesn't know how to do international affairs in any other way.

And, to be frank, despite being disappointed in the mad dog way he's gone about it, I can entirely see why he would want to fix things in his back yard like this.

[Mr Angry]

"You just don't in the 21st century behave in 19th-century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext." John Kerry, king of irony.

I'm open-mouthed at the hypocrisy of our own political class, given that they were all around in 2003 and almost to a man applauded our invasion of Iraq on a far flimsier pretext than the one Mad Vlad is now using to annexe parts of Ukraine. I guess they have to be seen to be objecting but I suspect they are happy deep down to just let him get on with it.

[Hom3r]

Will Putin go to the opening ceremony of the Paralympics?

Will he get booed?

I thought he would have invaded after the paralympics.

[thenry]

Don't ask don't tell.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Maggy J

The man and his cronies have a vast fortune stashed away in off shore accounts.Whatever happens they will get to enjoy that money whilst Russia goes to rat turds.

Yes, any suffering as a result of sanctions won't really be felt by them but by the ordinary people and he'll lay the blame squarely at the door of the EU and US.

[Osem]

And, as if by magic:

Gas and oil prices have risen amid fears the Ukraine crisis could have a damaging effect on one of Europe's main energy supply routes.

But analysts say high European gas stocks will limit the turbulence.

Gas futures climbed by up to 10% in early trading, while the benchmark price for oil rose by more than 2%.

Traders are worried about the stability of supplies from Russia, which provides a quarter of Europe's natural gas, half of it through Ukraine.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26418664

[thenry]

Usmanov Out!

Also summer is coming and we're reducing our dependency on Russian energy. Russia needs to sell it, badly, so two can play at that game.

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Originally Posted by Osem

Yes, any suffering as a result of sanctions won't really be felt by them but by the ordinary people and he'll lay the blame squarely at the door of the EU and US.

He will but that doesn't mean Russians will buy it. You'll get some who'll believe it wholesale but others won't. We'll get that outside of Russia as well however, those who believe the West is bad and the East is good. Plain ol' Anti-Americanism

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Also summer is coming and we're reducing our dependency on Russian energy. Russia needs to sell it, badly, so two can play at that game.

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He will but that doesn't mean Russians will buy it. You'll get some who'll believe it wholesale but others won't. We'll get that outside of Russia as well however, those who believe the West is bad and the East is good. Plain ol' Anti-Americanism

Don't speak too soon. Last year we had snow in April IIRC...