Eurozone will collapse...

Tell me mertle is there anything that doesn't make you rant..is there something you could share with us that could actually make us feel a bit more uplifted and cheerful?
Because frankly at the moment all I can think when I see one of your long rants is please no, not more doom.

[Dai]

Actually that's quite a neat idea. Salary increases in the boardroom should be no more than the same percentage rise as the lowest worker increase. Doing it as a percentage would still give them a much higher increase but it would be a real incentive to be fairer to the workers.

Mertle, you do realise that no UN employee pays tax, don't you?

According to the Vienna convention,

A diplomatic agent shall be exempt from all dues and taxes, personal or real, national, regional or municipal.”

Complain about her, and you are complaining about tens of thousands of UN employees throughout the years.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Mertle, you do realise that no UN employee pays tax, don't you?

According to the Vienna convention, Complain about her, and you are complaining about tens of thousands of UN employees throughout the years.

Realisation, in so many ways, hasn't yet dawned...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18438044

Spain's borrowing costs have risen to another euro-era record, with lenders demanding a higher interest rate.
The yield on benchmark 10-year bonds hit 7% on Thursday morning, a level which many analysts believe is unsustainable in the long term.

It's brown trousers time again ...

[danielf]

Originally Posted by Chris

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18438044


It's brown trousers time again ...

I stopped washing them some time ago. There's no point...

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Chris

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18438044


It's brown trousers time again ...

Well that £80bn dose of EUphoria didn't didn't last long did it? Only a few days later it doesn't look much of a "victory for Spain, the Euro and Europe" does it?...

Meanwhile as the Germans rule out Eurobonds again:

Germany's deputy finance minister has ruled out "eurobond-lite" plans to pool part of eurozone countries' debt.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18438402

and:

since Germany is opposed to using its financial strength to help other countries borrow through the sale of eurobonds, Germany would inevitably be opposed to helping other countries borrow by underwriting their respective banks.

And so it has proved - with the Bundesbank signalling its opposition to a banking union of this sort.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18414652

... the French and Italians are apparently saying in Rome that not enough progress is being made to solve the debt crisis...

(Link to follow)

It's the slowest slow motion train wreck of all time, but it really does look to have passed the point of no return now. The Euro is about to be rent asunder, in weeks or just a few months. The results of the Greek election this weekend will have a lot to do with the timing. If an anti-austerity coalition emerges in Athens, Germany will switch off the money taps pronto. Then we can do nothing but sit back and watch the fiscal fireworks.

The poling stations are shut, and early exit polls are too close to call. If they are precisely accurate, pro-austerity New Democracy has a 0.5pc lead over anti-austerity Syriza. Each party has polled between about 27 and 30pc of the total vote.

My view is that Syriza needs to win this so Greece rapidly moves to default, rupturing the Euro and bringing about the turmoil we all know is coming sooner or later. We need to take the hit and get on with fixing it. No solution is possible while the Euro-elites keep pretending that sticking-plaster solutions can win the day.

If New Democracy wins, then Greece will suffer a longer, more painful death spiral and we will have to wait until Spain or Italy runs out of money before the inevitable Eurogeddon occurs.

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Chris

The poling stations are shut, and early exit polls are too close to call. If they are precisely accurate, pro-austerity New Democracy has a 0.5pc lead over anti-austerity Syriza. Each party has polled between about 27 and 30pc of the total vote.

My view is that Syriza needs to win this so Greece rapidly moves to default, rupturing the Euro and bringing about the turmoil we all know is coming sooner or later. We need to take the hit and get on with fixing it. No solution is possible while the Euro-elites keep pretending that sticking-plaster solutions can win the day.

If New Democracy wins, then Greece will suffer a longer, more painful death spiral and we will have to wait until Spain or Italy runs out of money before the inevitable Eurogeddon occurs.

Wise words Chris

I don't hope for a Euro-collapse. It will lead to another long depression and giving that I write software for banks/finance firms I am pretty sure my job can't survive another recession/banking crisis .

[Osem]

A collapse of one sort or another is inevitable sadly IMHO. It's just a question of timing and scale. Once again we've seen markets rise due to the Greek vote but I doubt these fluctations will last or represent anything other than the sort of short term trading opportunities we've seen all too often when the greater of two perceived evils has been avoided (for now).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18482415

I believe the best we can hope for now is some form of managed restructuring of the Eurozone and a great deal of economic pain but given the intransigence and denial evident amongst the Eurocrats I doubt we'll get even that anytime soon.

The Euro is going to rupture. It's just a matter of where and when the dam will actually burst. Europe is in a depression; the world does not have enough money to keep bailing out banks and governments indefinitely. This is *going* to happen.

Had Syriza won the election in Greece last night, their refusal to abide by the terms of the country's bailout would have fairly quickly resulted in a massive default on sovereign debt and no option but for Greece to invent and print its own money in order to pay state employees - hence the return of the Drachma. With the fact of derogation from the single currency thus established it would then have been easier for other states to take the same decision when things got too tough.

New Democracy has won the election which means status quo for the time being at least (though ND does not have a working majority and a coalition is by no means assured). Thus, the leaky dam has been plugged in Athens for now. However, Spain and Italy are still right up the polluted watercourse without any obvious means of propulsion. That story is by no means played out yet. The day of reckoning may take a little longer to arrive, but it's coming.

Delaying the collapse is fine by me however. The more time until it happens the longer since the last recession and the more our banks can reduce their exposure to the weaker Euro economys.

You would hope so ...

Meanwhile, right on cue, Spanish government borrowing costs have jumped straight back into the brown trousers zone, with yields on 10-year bonds now at an eye-watering 7.1%. 7% is generally considered to be unaffordable. Italy's are on the march too, hovering around a rather uncomfortable 6%.