UK back in Recession

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Housing. I understand there are a few problems with supply and affordability especially in the south.

In the interim telling NIMBYs to properly shove it where the sun doesn't shine and completing planning reform rather than watering it down to appease the usual suspects would also be good.

.

The problem with telling the NYMBYs to shove it (which i agree with )is that they are traditionally conservative voters

[Saaf_laandon_mo]

I'm not too sure about HS2, for one I don't think the savings in time on rail journeys is that significant. I think we need more housing than a shaving of 10 mins on the journey from Euston to Birmingham.

[Traduk]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Best have Merv the Swerve crank up the printing presses again, clearly £325 billion created money isn't enough and we need more, after all it's working so well...

Main cause behind this is a big drop in construction, again. Construction should be the cure, not the disease.

Time for a massive cabinet reshuffle, bring in some people who actually spend some of their time in the real world.

Good find with the HSBC analyst's view on QE. Thanks. In a world where there is no such thing as a free lunch we paid for QE with a cliff face drop on the value of Sterling against major currency pairs. We will pay that price ad infinitum as the extra paper issued devalues just like a company issuing new shares. Imports such as fuel and energy which are traded in dollars have taken a hit which costs everyone of us, big time.

If there was any element of doubt that we are in a secular recession which almost invariably is compromised of two more common cyclical recessions with an anaemic recovery in between, it is now confirmed. Historically the second down cycle in secular recessions highlights and compounds the political folly attempted to ameliorate the first and second parts and forces an often extremely unpalatable solution.

Re-arranging the deck chairs (cabinet re-shuffle) will resolve nothing because the concept of trying the Canadian model for recovery a global downturn could never work and will not. The flaw in thinking was wrong in the last election run up, is wrong now and will continue to be wrong and new players, playing the same tune will not help.

The think, sadly that due to the folly of the out of touch rich boys at the helm, it will be a long time before Britain is great again.

Originally Posted by PeteLockwood

or a suggestion at cost cutting, stop paying housing benefit of 400 per week ??

I think they have hence the problems some councils in london are facing .Although i think that is more down to greedy private landlords dribbling at the prospect of short term lets for the olympics and then keeping prices high after the olympics have finished

i am quite sure 10+ billion could help stimulate the economy if spent wisely, like mentioned above HS2 would be a good start..

Quite sure it would,we could always ask the IMF for the 10 billion we just gave them back paying interest on it of course

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Traduk

Re-arranging the deck chairs (cabinet re-shuffle) will resolve nothing because the concept of trying the Canadian model for recovery a global downturn could never work and will not. The flaw in thinking was wrong in the last election run up, is wrong now and will continue to be wrong and new players, playing the same tune will not help.

The think, sadly that due to the folly of the out of touch rich boys at the helm, it will be a long time before Britain is great again.

Either going all the way with it, heavy austerity accompanied by tax cuts for all to both pump demand and supply, or increasing investment alongside tax rises was probably the way forward.

What we got instead was a severe reduction in investment, higher welfare bills, higher taxes, high real inflation (not whatever magical numbers the government produce). Government front loaded tax increases and investment reduction while back loading austerity measures, meaning we got the private sector contraction from tax increases immediately,

Exports have risen to non-EU nations but it's not close to enough to offset the reduction in demand at home and the cash hoarding the private sector the government are so horny over have been doing.

The only real demand at home has been debt driven buy to let.

The famed triple-A is a complete wash as my thread said. The only reason the UK has cheap gilts is because the BoE is buying them all, this is only going to continue despite increasing evidence that it is now ineffectual and the evidence for its initial effect is debatable. These purchases are the only reason the triple-A is there, and while the government allows the people to be rinsed by tax increases and real wage decreases due to high inflation and a cash hoarding private sector there is only one way for things to go. Trickle-down is nonsense, the evidence says the top merely use the increased cash to further increase the income gap through increased influence, the government has pursued a 'trickle-down lite' model with the worst of everything, taking money from middle class and below and handing it to business who, rather than investing it in the UK, invest it elsewhere or hoard it.

Absolute failure by an out of touch cabinet living in the Westminster bubble, brought up in privilege, with virtually no-one with any exposure to the real world.

[chris9991]

As an observation this is only the first estimate - it could change and may turn out that it is not as bad, but it could be worse.

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

The government has pursued a 'trickle-down lite' model with the worst of everything, taking money from middle class and below and handing it to business who, rather than investing it in the UK, invest it elsewhere or hoard it.

Absolute failure by an out of touch cabinet living in the Westminster bubble, brought up in privilege, with virtually no-one with any exposure to the real world.

'Trickle-down' economics is a scam anyway. We've been told for years of the benefits of giving the rich tax-breaks in order to encourage them to provide but jobs but wealth disparity continues to grow. Instead the rich use the tax-breaks which they paid for to invest in hedge funds and hoard money.

[Traduk]

Originally Posted by chris9991

As an observation this is only the first estimate - it could change and may turn out that it is not as bad, but it could be worse.

It doesn't really matter whether it is worse or better as the criteria for acknowledging a recession are contrived for political purposes.

I look at charts which show growth on a running basis and they show that for lost growth, a long period of above par growth must ensue to negate the loss.

The anaemic recovery from the last recession has not mitigated the loss during that time and again we are below a positive level which adds the losses from non recovery.

The actual performance of UK PLC in terms of time for return to true growth is worse than during the depression era of the 30's and with the ridiculous coalition policies I see nothing more than furious digging whilst in a big hole.

My enduring concern is the arrogance with which the rich kids at the helm press on with plan A which patently doesn't work and stubbornly refuse to even acknowledge let alone review a catalogue of errors.

[chris9991]

Originally Posted by Traduk

My enduring concern is the arrogance with which the rich kids at the helm press on with plan A which patently doesn't work and stubbornly refuse to even acknowledge let alone review a catalogue of errors.

What do you think should be done as an alternative to plan A?

[Osem]

Originally Posted by chris9991

What do you think should be done as an alternative to plan A?

Plan B of course.....

(as long as that doesn't involve more of New Labour's 'prudence' and governance)

My feeling is we're in between a rock and a hard place and nobody really knows what they're doing and where this is all heading. They're flying by the seats of their pants and point scoring while we and the EU get deeper into the mire.

Just to be perfectly clear, however, I have a great deal more sympathy for the current incumbents of Nos 10 & 11, who inherited a right royal mess, than I do for those who presided over its creation and allowed it to get totally out of control. For them to be pointing fingers now is a bit rich.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Osem

Plan B of course.....

(as long as that doesn't involve more of New Labour's 'prudence' and governance)

My feeling is we're in between a rock and a hard place and nobody really knows what they're doing and where this is all heading. They're flying by the seats of their pants and point scoring while we and the EU get deeper into the mire.

Just to be perfectly clear, however, I have a great deal more sympathy for the current incumbents of Nos 10 & 11, who inherited a right royal mess, than I do for those who presided over its creation and allowed it to get totally out of control. For them to be pointing fingers now is a bit rich.

Yes it is, doesn't change that they've taken a bad situation and made it worse out of political expediency.

Loving all the inverted snobbery.......

[Osem]

I'm thinking it might be time to vote for........















...... A single world government and radical reform.....

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Less worse than it would otherwise have been. See Greece.

I don't think if Labour had been re-elected we would be in a Greece style situation. That seems rather drastic and alarmist. No one has made a convincing argument that would have been the case. We're not part of the Euro and we have a considerably better debt-to-GDP ratio.

We don't know what would have happened if Labour had won, they didn't. The Conservatives won and the economy is now their responsibility.

[Derek]

Originally Posted by Osem

I'm thinking it might be time to vote for........
...... A single world government and radical reform.....

Naw!!!

No great surprise, the only thing that confused me is why some people are so shocked.