[update] UK economy grows in Q1 2011

I'd love to spend money but as I'm not sure if my husband will have a job after April I'm being extremely cautious and only spending the minimum I can get away with.
I should imagine most people are doing the same and unless it's a necessity it doesn't get bought.

[Ignitionnet]

Yes, the inflation monster isn't helping either but interest rates had to stay down to try and keep house prices up so people could continue feeling wealthy and the younger generation continue transferring wealth to the older one.

We're probably in for more Quantitative Easing now, further propelling inflation higher and ensuring that the money we all do have doesn't go as far.

[Flyboy]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

To think, you have in the past complained when other people politicised threads.

There is nothing to indicate that this is a result of coalition policy. The Labour party's own leader said that the cuts had not yet started as of December 2010. There is nothing interesting to see here beyond political opportunism which you appear determined to bring onto this forum as well.

Unsure what you're talking about referring to 'the right'. Political opportunism is political opportunism, end of discussion. That you're trying to get one over on 'the right' by engaging in the exact same behaviour is entirely your prerogative.

Nope, don't ever remember complaining about that.

VAT and the fuel duty has already happened, albeit since January. It cannot be denied that the has not influenced how people plan their financial future.

What cannot also be denied, is that when the economy was doing better before the election, it wasn't good, but now when the economy is doing poorly, it is not a bad thing. Seems a bit upside-down, don't you think?

---------- Post added at 20:22 ---------- Previous post was at 20:20 ----------

Originally Posted by Saaf_laandon_mo

I was out in Croydon on Sunday afternoon shopping. The area looked like a ghost town in comparison to its usual busy self. With everyone having considerably less disposable income than they had this time last year, you really can't blame the weather for less consumer spending.

But then consumer spending has not even been included in the current figures. So, Osborne's bleating about the weather was a bit of a red herring.

[chris9991]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Yes, the inflation monster isn't helping either but interest rates had to stay down to try and keep house prices up so people could continue feeling wealthy and the younger generation continue transferring wealth to the older one.

We're probably in for more Quantitative Easing now, further propelling inflation higher and ensuring that the money we all do have doesn't go as far.

But, don't they know what they're doing? Aren't the people in power talented?

It so annoys me that that the cost keep getting pushed to younger generations; they didn't mess it up so why should they pay? It's like getting your children to make your mortgage payments

Strange - I seem to have spent all my money on my kids; how is that pushing the cost to a younger generation?

[Ignitionnet]

Poorly controlled inflation is theft of money from savers for the benefit of debtors, such as overspending governments. QE was inflationary, totally intentionally, recent interest rate policy has also been questionable.

Leaving the next generation with huge debts so that we can keep our public services, pensions and live to the standard to which we've become accustomed without paying our way is also pushing the cost onward.

Just to clarify my point regarding wealth transfer is the house price increase, first time buyers throwing huge amounts of money up the property ladder just to get a foot on the rung. There's a few reasons for that one.

---------- Post added at 21:06 ---------- Previous post was at 20:59 ----------

Originally Posted by Flyboy

Nope, don't ever remember complaining about that.

Can't be bothered to find examples but I'm fairly sure you've complained about party politics in threads.

Originally Posted by Flyboy

VAT and the fuel duty has already happened, albeit since January. It cannot be denied that the has not influenced how people plan their financial future.

The VAT increase made me spend more speaking for myself to take advantage of the lower VAT rate.

Originally Posted by Flyboy

What cannot also be denied, is that when the economy was doing better before the election, it wasn't good, but now when the economy is doing poorly, it is not a bad thing. Seems a bit upside-down, don't you think?

Depends on the level of tunnel vision involved. If ignoring everything else and concentrating purely on GDP figures absolutely, but it is of course more complicated.

Regardless it's just the usual politicians playing the usual points scoring game, one difference I will note however is one admitting that things wouldn't be pleasant, or smooth, the other appearing to give the impression that so long as the blank cheques continued things would be fine.

Originally Posted by Flyboy

But then consumer spending has not even been included in the current figures. So, Osborne's bleating about the weather was a bit of a red herring.

The ONS disagrees. The weather affected construction, hospitality, transport, various things and is responsible according to them for approximately 0.5% of the loss, they claim it would have been flat otherwise.

It's disastrous, politicians are slimy, government is spending far too much which is putting the country further into debt and taxing too much which is killing growth. Usual story.

As the old saying goes "Don't blame me" - I have always seen my house as a home, not an investment (I have lived in this one for 18 years now, and the one before that for 8 years).

I don't actually remember asking for the house prices to be inflated, in fact, I was quite against it as it made moving from a semi to a detached house very difficult. I seem to remember a lot of money being spent on schools and universities, the main beneficiaries who would seem to be the generations after mine (who also seem to be the ones with the fancy toys like iPhones, iPads, big TVs/BluRays, laptops, etc)

Re pensions, I have always been a member of a private pension fund, and only in the last three years joined a University Pension Fund (which I pay 10% into), and the only thing I have ever bought without having the money to pay for it is my house, which I will pay off near the end of this year.

Once again, "Don't blame me!".... (I am a believer in equity, not debt - I wish more were the same).

*and I am not even going to begin to mention the income tax/NI/VAT I have paid over my life....

[Ignitionnet]

Oh I'm not blaming most people, it's mostly the fault of multiple governments along with some ridiculously bad lending decisions and the rise of property as an investment

[Flyboy]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Can't be bothered to find examples but I'm fairly sure you've complained about party politics in threads.

Hmm...can't say that I remember doing it, but if you say so.

The VAT increase made me spend more speaking for myself to take advantage of the lower VAT rate.

Well bully for you, however most people in the real world, couldn't afford to buy that new plasma televison set, the new car, fridge, dishwasher or washing machine. They decided to save their money to pay for food and clothing later.

Depends on the level of tunnel vision involved. If ignoring everything else and concentrating purely on GDP figures absolutely, but it is of course more complicated.

Regardless it's just the usual politicians playing the usual points scoring game, one difference I will note however is one admitting that things wouldn't be pleasant, or smooth, the other appearing to give the impression that so long as the blank cheques continued things would be fine.

But Osborne is still spending, the debt is still climbing with little prospect of it getting any better. Osborne's plans are simply not working.

The ONS disagrees. The weather affected construction, hospitality, transport, various things and is responsible according to them for approximately 0.5% of the loss, they claim it would have been flat otherwise.

LOL, okay then, the real loss should be -0.475%

It's disastrous, politicians are slimy, government is spending far too much which is putting the country further into debt and taxing too much which is killing growth. Usual story.

But they have had a long time now to come up with a workable solution and haven't. It is getting worse. It kind of reminds of a Roman Emperor who ignored the smoke coming from the city.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Flyboy

Well bully for you, however most people in the real world, couldn't afford to buy that new plasma televison set, the new car, fridge, dishwasher or washing machine. They decided to save their money to pay for food and clothing later.

Food isn't VAT rated. A number of people I know did the same, it's common sense.

Originally Posted by Flyboy

But Osborne is still spending, the debt is still climbing with little prospect of it getting any better. Osborne's plans are simply not working.

The cuts hadn't started as of December last year. It appears some want it both ways, they want to blame austerity for the bad figure and inform that the austerity isn't working. In case you hadn't noticed the mere prospect of cuts has churned various parts of the population into a frothing, protesting rage, though they sadly appear not as interested in where the money would come from to avoid them.

Originally Posted by Flyboy

LOL, okay then, the real loss should be -0.475%

I missed the word 'the' out. I'll take it as a compliment that you had nothing but a pithy response. A simple acceptance that you were wrong about your inaccurate comment that weather was a 'red herring' would suffice

Originally Posted by Flyboy

But they have had a long time now to come up with a workable solution and haven't. It is getting worse. It kind of reminds of a Roman Emperor who ignored the smoke coming from the city.

Indeed they have, those words are wasted on me as you are entirely preaching to the converted.

Perhaps you'd care to address those comments to the UK Uncut crew instead, or the Liberal Democrats, or indeed 'the left' in general. They are, after all, the ones who tax excessively and overspend traditionally, in the name of being fair and progressive. We are just enjoying the worst of both worlds right now, austerity, 'progressiveness', and a total lack of direction. Tory-lite without the capitalism friendly policies as they would offend the progressives and socialists.

Re the weather - only the year before, the then PM stated

Then we had a terrible month of weather which hindered transport and communications in business in the country.Obviously it has been a difficult few months. But that just shows just how fragile the recovery is.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Re the weather - only the year before, the then PM stated

My point exactly. When they're out of power, the coldest December for a century and all the resulting chaos is referred to as 'leaves on the line' with no bearing on the economy...

The extent to which the weather affected the economy remains to be seen but there is no doubt that it had an adverse effect. Time will tell how much effect other factors like the VAT rise have.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12284778

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Flyboy

But then consumer spending has not even been included in the current figures. So, Osborne's bleating about the weather was a bit of a red herring.

Originally Posted by Flyboy

Well bully for you, however most people in the real world, couldn't afford to buy that new plasma televison set, the new car, fridge, dishwasher or washing machine. They decided to save their money to pay for food and clothing later.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12248301

The volume of retail sales was unchanged from the previous year, the Office for National Statistics said.

It is the first time there has been no annual growth in retail sales volume in a December since 1998. But the value of retail sales rose 2%.

"Household goods sales fell by almost 1%, suggesting that the snow stopped consumers bringing forward spending on big-ticket items before the VAT rise," said Vicky Redwood at Capital Economics.

"We would not get too gloomy about any of this," she added. "Anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers flocked to the post-Christmas sales, meaning that spending should rebound in January."

Sorry to bring facts into the party political broadcast and all that, or point out that in the 'real world' people do actually bring forward spending on items before VAT rises rather than board up their windows and doors and spend all their money hoarding canned food and shotguns before the coalition's brutal (barely sufficient) cuts destroy life as we know it.

[Chrysalis]

well, is this to include the xmas period?

negative growth during christmas I would consider horrific regardless of weather.

ed balls to be fair was right, and was ignored by the bbc presenter in that confidence is the biggest factor of all in an economy, if people are not confident then they will not spend. So what the public sector actually spent is completely irrelevant as the public are all thinking about cuts instead.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Chrysalis

ed balls to be fair was right, and was ignored by the bbc presenter in that confidence is the biggest factor of all in an economy, if people are not confident then they will not spend. So what the public sector actually spent is completely irrelevant as the public are all thinking about cuts instead.

The confidence is there, all the confidence measures are far better than the GDP figure suggests, that's why it was such a surprise.

Ed Balls will happily ignore that, he's busy rewriting history to engage in his gloating and push his denial agenda. To do otherwise admits that his and Brown's economic strategy was wrong, and nothing quite sums up that side of New Labour quite like the utter inability to admit to getting anything wrong.