Good or bad

[Graham F]

I don't seem to be able to find this discussed anywhere so here goes.

What do you all make of ntl's preliminary results for Q3 2003

http://www.ntl.com/mediacentre/press/pdf/2003Q3.pdf

On the surface they certainly look good and is a positive step forward for the company. What does everyone else think?

[Richard M]

Originally Posted by Scooby

I don't seem to be able to find this discussed anywhere so here goes.

What do you all make of ntl's preliminary results for Q3 2003

http://www.ntl.com/mediacentre/press/pdf/2003Q3.pdf

On the surface they certainly look good and is a positive step forward for the company. What does everyone else think?

                     Q3-2003   Q2-2003   Q1-2003   Q4-2002   Q3-2002
Total Customers (1) 2,809,500 2,753,300 2,713,500 2,686,400 2,667,000
Customer additions   158,500   129,300   116,100    105,800    84,000
Customer disconnects 102,300 89,500     89,000     108,100    113,000
Net customer movement 56,200 39,800    27,100     (2,300)    (29,000)

Well they seem to be getting more customers but are still losing a lot!

[Graham F]

Originally Posted by Roger K

                     Q3-2003   Q2-2003   Q1-2003   Q4-2002   Q3-2002
Total Customers (1) 2,809,500 2,753,300 2,713,500 2,686,400 2,667,000
Customer additions   158,500   129,300   116,100    105,800    84,000
Customer disconnects 102,300 89,500     89,000     108,100    113,000
Net customer movement 56,200 39,800    27,100     (2,300)    (29,000)

Well they seem to be getting more customers but are still losing a lot!

What you need to keep in mind is that if someone moves house they get put down as a Customer disconnect and then get readded to the customer additions column...so it can make it look worse then it is. but still alot

Originally Posted by Roger K

Q3-2003 Q2-2003 Q1-2003 Q4-2002 Q3-2002
Total Customers (1) 2,809,500 2,753,300 2,713,500 2,686,400 2,667,000
Customer additions 158,500 129,300 116,100 105,800 84,000
Customer disconnects 102,300 89,500 89,000 108,100 113,000
Net customer movement 56,200 39,800 27,100 (2,300) (29,000)

Well they seem to be getting more customers but are still losing a lot!

Total customers has risen, DTV, BB and Phone have all risen, they seem to have had a pretty good Q3.

[Undisputedtruth]

I expected NTL to gain more customers, especially as they are given away some of their services for free. Only 56,000 new additions. Shameful really. It was not so long ago, as much as 70,000 customers were leaving NTL each quarter. The crunch will come when they have to start charging for their services. Expect mass exodus again.

Originally Posted by Undisputedtruth

I expected NTL to gain more customers, especially as they are given away some of their services for free. Only 56,000 new additions. Shameful really. It was not so long ago, as much as 70,000 customers were leaving NTL each quarter. The crunch will come when they have to start charging for their services. Expect mass exodus again.

I don't see 56,000 new additions, it seems to say that they had 158,500 new additions (but 102,300 leavers) - an overall net increase of 56,200, which is not the same thing - and how can that be shameful ! If I was running a business I would be delighted that my net customers was increasing (and that over the past 12 months I had gone from losing customers overall, to gaining them). The only downside I can see in these figures is the increase in the number of disconnects.

[Undisputedtruth]

Originally Posted by pem

I don't see 56,000 new additions, it seems to say that they had 158,500 new additions (but 102,300 leavers) - an overall net increase of 56,200, which is not the same thing - and how can that be shameful ! If I was running a business I would be delighted that my net customers was increasing (and that over the past 12 months I had gone from losing customers overall, to gaining them). The only downside I can see in these figures is the increase in the number of disconnects.

I have quoted net figures.

The figures are shameful because NTL are giving away some of their services for free and yet they can only manage 56,000 net additions. That would be a serious concern.

Remember, it was not too long ago, NTL were losing 70,000 customers net.

[Nemesis]

By comparisoon to this time last year, they appear to be improving ....... on their Net customer movement anyway ( -29,000 to +56,000).

The service does seem to be improving in general too, as has been noted there are far fewer NTL hell stories appearing ..... or is it the state of the forum ... or do people just not know about us ?

[ian@huth]

NTL removed 15,000 zero pay analog TV customers from their figures, but it is not clear whether they removed them from the Q3 - 2003 figures or have removed them since the report.

What does seem clear from the figures is that NTL are continually losing TV customers. They may be gaining Digital TV customers but they are losing Analog customers at a faster rate. I wonder how many of the Digital TV customers are only there because of the inducements NTL have given them to retain the service.

The average revenue per user has increased slightly but I would imagine that it would have fallen if this years figures were priced the same as last years. Price increases are the only thing to have generated this rise in revenue per user.

During this year churn percentage is increasing.

[Nemesis]

The likes of ITV Digitial will have given them a knock, and the subsequent Freeview stuff.

The question is now why are people leaving ... seriously.

Is it:-
the bad service ...
better alternatives .. Sky - Telewest is not an option really
More Freeview availability

what ...?

[ian@huth]

My view is that NTLs churn rate will continue to increase for several reasons:

Analog TV customers will look carefully at all options, including Sky and Freeview when they come to upgrade to digital. How many NTL customers stay with them simply because they can't be bothered to change or because they are enjoying inducements to stay with NTL.

Digital customers will become fed up with the "coming soon" situation on interactive and the lack of a decent EPG.

Sky+ will tempt customers away and NTL are probably years away from having a comparable product.

Broadband pricing, availability and quality of service will drive customers away.

Insistance of having a telephone line in order to get Digital TV is a big mistake and as ADSL gets faster and cheaper customers will be lost to ADSL and they will have to get a BT line making their NTL redundant and the NTL DTV package £9.50 more than Sky.

[Ignition]

Not going to answer the above immensely well informed points, just to say that net cash flow inwards of £98.1 million and customer base rising can't be too shabby

[trebor]

Originally Posted by pem

If I was running a business I would be delighted that my net customers was increasing (and that over the past 12 months I had gone from losing customers overall, to gaining them). The only downside I can see in these figures is the increase in the number of disconnects.

true, but if it was my business I would want to know why I was losing so many customers because it would be even better if no one left.

I quite agree - which is why I said it was a downside.

[Undisputedtruth]

Originally Posted by Nemesis

By comparisoon to this time last year, they appear to be improving ....... on their Net customer movement anyway ( -29,000 to +56,000).

The service does seem to be improving in general too, as has been noted there are far fewer NTL hell stories appearing ..... or is it the state of the forum ... or do people just not know about us ?

Censorship plays a role on these forums. Those who post negative remarks at NTL often have their lives made difficult on these forums. Things are so bad you can't even mention certain words.

At the moment, the new customers are probably taking advantage of NTL special offers - well who would turn down free services. A year ago, the net loss of customers leaving NTL was reduced which meant NTL were gaining new customers. After 12 months of rubbish customer services they have voted with their feet at the end of their 12 months contract. I expect the number of customers leaving NTL to increase, unless of course ntl are willing to bribe them with more special offers.