Coronavirus - Page 374

**Hugh** · 04-06-2021, 13:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I have always advocated protecting the vulnerable and allowing the virus to pass through the healthy population. As for the observation that there would not be a need for a second lockdown, that was before we knew that the new Kent variant was far more transmissable.

On your second point, it was only a few posts ago when you said you were 'looking forward' to restrictions being extended beyond 21 June. This despite the continuing hardship that would impose on those struggling to survive under these conditions, so I don't believe that you want this disruption to end at all.

As for personalising this argument, you've got a nerve saying that, given your previous posts! Anyhow, if you want to call a truce to hostilities, I am all for that. Let's just keep to the argument. It is possible to agree to disagree.

---------- Post added at 08:53 ---------- Previous post was at 08:50 ----------

...And the current average daily tally stands at.....

Covid is no longer the biggest killer in the UK.

You do realise that the two points you make in your opening paragraph are contradictory?

Allowing the virus to "pass through the healthy population" creates the likelyhood of more variants, some of which are likely to be more transmissable - doing the first creates the opportunity for the second.

Carth · 04-06-2021, 14:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by jonbxx

That is great news. I would be all up for my kids having the jab if it makes things safer for seeing their grandparents. There will of course be the argument that kids aren't really affected by COVID so why have the jab but reducing the chances of spread is a good thing.

The same argument is used for HPV vaccination of teenage boys - they'll just get warts from HPV (plus an extremely low rate of penile cancer) but it will help reduce cases of cervical cancer in the long term

Does that mean the vaccines are now almost 100% effective against catching and spreading it?

OLD BOY · 04-06-2021, 14:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

You do realise that the two points you make in your opening paragraph are contradictory?

Allowing the virus to "pass through the healthy population" creates the likelyhood of more variants, some of which are likely to be more transmissable - doing the first creates the opportunity for the second.

You have not taken those remarks in the context in which they were made. I have never argued for a lockdown - I was answering the question of why I had previously asserted that a further big wave was unlikely. The impact of the Kent variant took everyone by surprise.

**Hugh** · 04-06-2021, 14:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You have not taken those remarks in the context in which they were made. I have never argued for a lockdown - I was answering the question of why I had previously asserted that a further big wave was unlikely. The impact of the Kent variant took everyone by surprise.

Point.
missed.
completely...

You were/are advocating the spread of the virus throughout the population, then you were surprised that a more transmissable variant arose.

The more the virus spreads, the more likelyhood of variants arising, and the more likelyhood of one or more of those variants being more transmissible.

Science...

jfman · 04-06-2021, 15:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You have not taken those remarks in the context in which they were made. I have never argued for a lockdown - I was answering the question of why I had previously asserted that a further big wave was unlikely. The impact of the Kent variant took everyone by surprise.

Well I’m bookmarking this post for three months time when you claim the Indian variant took everyone by surprise. It absolutely didn’t.

**Hugh** · 04-06-2021, 15:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth

Does that mean the vaccines are now almost 100% effective against catching and spreading it?

No.

Like seatbelts, airbags, and brakes in a car - they reduce the odds of serious injury or death, not eliminate them completely.

Carth · 04-06-2021, 16:05

I don't get it

https://news.sky.com/story/76-5-incr...-show-12324709

Quote:

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimates that 85,600 people in the country had COVID-19 in the week to May 29

remember that number . . 85,600.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...3-000-12324110

Quote:

Cases of the variant have gone up by 5,472 to 12,431, according to Public Health England (PHE).

PHE officials said on Thursday that the Delta variant has now overtaken the Alpha (Kent) one as the most dominant in the UK.

So we have Delta with 12,431, which, as it's the dominant strain, has more cases than the other two variants. If we knock just one case off the other variants - making them 12,430 each - then the total cases must only be 37,291.

85,600 minus 37,291 gives us 48,309 cases missing . . . have these recovered in a week, or are there more than 3 variants?

. . . or maybe something being 'dominant' doesn't mean what I think it means

jfman · 04-06-2021, 16:10

ONS do random population testing and extrapolate figures from there. A bit like the BARB tell you 6 million people watched Phil's funeral by sampling 1000 homes.

Carth · 04-06-2021, 16:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

ONS do random population testing and extrapolate figures from there. A bit like the BARB tell you 6 million people watched Phil's funeral by sampling 1000 homes.

So you're telling me that 85,600 people didn't in fact have Covid that week?

Great, we can forget restrictions carrying on then

**Hugh** · 04-06-2021, 16:28

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth

I don't get it

https://news.sky.com/story/76-5-incr...-show-12324709

remember that number . . 85,600.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...3-000-12324110

So we have Delta with 12,431, which, as it's the dominant strain, has more cases than the other two variants. If we knock just one case off the other variants - making them 12,430 each - then the total cases must only be 37,291.

85,600 minus 37,291 gives us 48,309 cases missing . . . have these recovered in a week, or are there more than 3 variants?

. . . or maybe something being 'dominant' doesn't mean what I think it means

The original COVID-19 strain isn’t a variant- the other 4 are.

Here’s a worrying trend.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...hts#infections

Quote:

Around 1.0 million people in the UK were experiencing self-reported long COVID in May 2021

An estimated 1.0 million people in the UK (1.6%) were experiencing self-reported long COVID at 2 May 2021.

Over a third of people with long COVID symptoms reported experiencing symptoms beyond one year after the first (suspected) infection.

Fatigue, shortness of breath and muscle ache were the most common long COVID symptoms.

Adults aged 35 to 69 years were more likely to report long COVID than those aged 70 years and over.

Individuals of Asian and Black ethnic backgrounds were 0.7 and 0.8 times as likely (approximately 25% less likely) to report long COVID symptoms, respectively, than those of White ethnic background.

People with pre-existing health conditions were more likely to report long COVID than those without.

So we have nothing to fear but fear itself, and death, and Long Covid…

spiderplant · 04-06-2021, 16:29

12,431 is cases of Delta confirmed by testing, but there will be many others that haven't been confirmed, either because no test was done at all or the sample wasn't sequenced (IIRC, they only sequence about half of them). 85,600 is the estimated total number of cases of all variants.

In other news...
https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/re...start-20743606

Carth · 04-06-2021, 16:32

Thanks for confirming everything is down to estimation and guesswork

oh, and a dominant strain is a dominant strain, it says so in black & white

jfman · 04-06-2021, 16:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant

12,431 is cases of Delta confirmed by testing, but there will be many others that haven't been confirmed, either because no test was done at all or the sample wasn't sequenced (IIRC, they only sequence about half of them). 85,600 is the estimated total number of cases of all variants.

In other news...
https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/re...start-20743606

Shield the Old Boy.

1andrew1 · 04-06-2021, 16:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by spiderplant

In other news...
https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/re...start-20743606

Seph and Old Boy - you need to get out...less!

jonbxx · 04-06-2021, 17:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth

Does that mean the vaccines are now almost 100% effective against catching and spreading it?

Nope, would never say that - no drug or vaccine is 100% effective but I am a big fan of the Swiss Cheese Model of risk management.

Pulling figures out of the air, if my mums vaccination is 80% effective at preventing her becoming sick and my kids vaccination is 80% effective at preventing spread, then that's a 20% likelihood of my kids spreading and a 20% likelihood of my mum getting sick if thy do give it to her.

That adds up to 96% effective in combination which is a result to me