Brexit (Old)

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mick

And yes, you’re right the pathetic Remainer forcasts from BoE and Treasury, don’t pass any kind of valid scrutiny. It’s just pure fiction.

I think it's pretty much agreed that they're scenarios and not forecasts but all have passed rigorous scrutiny.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I think it's pretty much agreed that they're scenarios and not forecasts but all have passed rigorous scrutiny.

By biased Remainers. Who want to sabotage Brexit. The Scenarios they have presented are pure fiction, so they pass sweet FA!!!

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Originally Posted by jfman

We are all aware of your opinion on the matter.

With the best will in the world, it's not going to play out as you wish. The pieces are moving into place. Parliament is sovereign. The easiest thing to do is kick it back to the people.

Nope, it is totally wrong to have another vote. We’ve already had a people’s vote, you just want another vote to overturn the first. When Leave wins again, will you selfishly insist we keep having a vote, so you can keep trying to get the result you want, best of 5 perhaps?

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by jfman

Sam Gyimah has resigned as Universities and Science Minister.
.

A Remainer which goes to show what a bad deal this is, whatever side of the fence you're on.

It's only benefit is that it's better than no deal. It really has been a case of 'a crap deal is better than no deal'.

Looks doomed anyway, and MPs won't allow 'no deal' to happen. So that leaves....

Once more I have had to edit the word remoaner from a post. This will be the last reminder about this.In future it will result in an infraction..

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

One of my early forays into this thread, and two weeks later I feel like we are further from No Deal than when I typed it then.

I don't know how you come to that conclusion. We are just a couple of weeks from a vote on the withdrawal agreement, and if they vote it down, it will be a no deal.

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Originally Posted by Angua

A lot of the areas in England that benefitted most from the EU funds supported leave. Where areas like the Thames Valley that did not need the EU subsidies voted remain.

It seems to me that perhaps those people living outside of England who voted remain were not clued up enough to realise that this 'EU money' actually originated from the money the UK paid out in the first place.

---------- Post added at 10:49 ---------- Previous post was at 10:39 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

But you know that is not what he is saying don't you? The problem you have is that the 2016 vote based is on uninformed consent. The other problem is that this is not a GE where if you change your mind, you vote the idiots out in 5 years or less.

The vote was one of huge structural, social and economic significance and as such the population *must* be involved now the options are clear and present. It is quite sinister that a democracy should not allow it's population to be involved at this stage.

What is even more sinister is the relish that some express for a No Deal. The proposition that the 37% should drag the whole country down to fulfil their (to me) misplaced wishes is so wrong. This is my country, the one I and my children live in and if it is is going to be trashed, there should be a better mandate that the one currently in place.

Your indignation regarding the prospect of a second referendum is not one based on an affront to democracy. Rather it is anger: you got what you wanted after so many years and now you fear it will taken away from you.

No. You only want a second referendum because you didn't get what you wanted.

I find it rather worrying that someone who posts this nonsense so persistently could have not understood what 'leave' and 'remain' meant.

I certainly knew, Mick knew and everyone else who voted to leave and posted on here knew. You are basically insulting 'leave' voters because you assume they must be ignorant to have voted as they did!

Priceless!

Originally Posted by Mick

By biased Remainers. Who want to sabotage Brexit. The Scenarios they have presented are pure fiction, so they pass sweet FA!!!

So what do you think will happen to the economy after Brexit?

The BoE are creating scenarios based on different outcomes. They are informed estimates of what would happen in those scenarios by people who are proficient in the numbers and their field.

People on here have been pretty happy with such estimates when it comes to speculation on a Corbyn government, or an Ed Miliband government, but when it comes to Brexit less so.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I don't know how you come to that conclusion. We are just a couple of weeks from a vote on the withdrawal agreement, and if they vote it down, it will be a no deal.

---------- Post added at 10:39 ---------- Previous post was at 10:32 ----------



It seems to me that perhaps those people living outside of England who voted remain were not clued up enough to realise that this 'EU money' actually originated from the money the UK paid out in the first place.

---------- Post added at 10:49 ---------- Previous post was at 10:39 ----------


No. You only want a second referendum because you didn't get what you wanted.

I find it rather worrying that someone who posts this nonsense so persistently could have not understood what 'leave' and 'remain' meant.

I certainly knew, Mick knew and everyone else who voted remain and posted on here knew. You are basically insulting 'leave' voters because you assume they must be ignorant to have voted as they did!

Priceless!

But but but the remain camp keep saying they didn't understand what the vote was about ,i think most of them just saw the two options as
1 remain
2 stay in
The concept of leaving went straight over their heads ,and it is still orbiting out of their reach.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

But but but the remain camp keep saying they didn't understand what the vote was about ,i think most of them just saw the two options as
1 remain
2 stay in
The concept of leaving went straight over their heads ,and it is still orbiting out of their reach.

Yes, it's incredible to hear so many remainers complaining now that people didn't know what 'leave' meant. What they are really saying is that they did not understand what they were voting for.

And now they are saying that Brexit cannot bring economic advantages to the UK, presumably because they have absolutely no clue, and can see only a dystopian future.

So why should we listen to them?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

So what do you think will happen to the economy after Brexit?

The BoE are creating scenarios based on different outcomes. They are informed estimates of what would happen in those scenarios by people who are proficient in the numbers and their field.

People on here have been pretty happy with such estimates when it comes to speculation on a Corbyn government, or an Ed Miliband government, but when it comes to Brexit less so.

I think Professor Brian Cox has a good angle on this:

Politics today is split into people who understand modelling and probability and the quantification of uncertainty and people who don’t.

https://twitter.com/ProfBrianCox/sta...01464436948992

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Yes, it's incredible to hear so many remainers complaining now that people didn't know what 'leave' meant. What they are really saying is that they did not understand what they were voting for.

And now they are saying that Brexit cannot bring economic advantages to the UK, presumably because they have absolutely no clue, and can see only a dystopian future.

So why should we listen to them?

I stopped bothering with them a long time ago ,it's all the same old dog chasing it's own tail drivel ,it's amasing how many times they can rehash the same clap trap .

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

You raise many valid points.

Those who scream about democracy do so in favour of uninformed vote on a given date in 2016. They do not with to extend that luxury to an informed populace of 2019. We are derided as bitter 'remoaners' as they are terrified an informed population takes their ideals away from them. Which is fine, it makes me feel better about being on the right side of history that others disagree so strongly.

Those who scream about sovereignty do so, until they realise that Parliament is sovereign above all. If Parliament votes instruct the Government to remain, and the Government ignores the will of Parliament in favour of a non-binding advisory referendum we can look forward to a) a general election and b) a Brexit vote in 2019.

I've used the term a number of times but constitutional crisis remains the most likely option. I can't wait, as a patriot I look forward to our constitution protecting people from existential threats to our United Kingdom.

The PM has clarified that there will not be a second referendum and there will not be another General Election. She could not be any clearer and yet in your world, that's the only way forward.

Here, in the real world, we are looking at a vote in Parliament shortly that will result in the withdrawal agreement being abandoned, which will simply mean a 'no-deal' Brexit.

No constitutional crisis. Just a sizeable number of politicians scratching their heads and asking themselves what was so bad about the withdrawal agreement after all.

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I think it's pretty much agreed that they're scenarios and not forecasts but all have passed rigorous scrutiny.

Based on negative assumptions.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Yes, it's incredible to hear so many remainers complaining now that people didn't know what 'leave' meant. What they are really saying is that they did not understand what they were voting for.

And now they are saying that Brexit cannot bring economic advantages to the UK, presumably because they have absolutely no clue, and can see only a dystopian future.

So why should we listen to them?

The available analysis shows that this economic advantage will have an uplift on the economy of a fraction of a per cent whereas leaving the EU will have a negative impact of several per cent. This has been explained to you and the reasons for it have been carefully explained to you together with links explaining how trade works. But you've chosen not to believe it which is your choice. That is the reason for the divergence in views.

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Based on negative assumptions.

Based on informed analysis and how trade works.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Mr K

A Remainer which goes to show what a bad deal this is, whatever side of the fence you're on.

It's only benefit is that it's better than no deal. It really has been a case of 'a crap deal is better than no deal'.

Looks doomed anyway, and MPs won't allow 'no deal' to happen. So that leaves....

If MPs vote down the withdrawal agreement, the government need take no further action. The legislation is already in place for Brexit Day and Article 50 will be implemented automatically. So no deal it will most certainly be, because there is no agreement to any viable alternative.

---------- Post added at 11:48 ---------- Previous post was at 11:44 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The available analysis shows that this economic advantage will have an uplift on the economy of a fraction of a per cent whereas leaving the EU will have a negative impact of several per cent. This has been explained to you and the reasons for it have been carefully explained to you together with links explaining how trade works. But you've chosen not to believe it which is your choice. That is the reason for the divergence in views.

---------- Post added at 11:44 ---------- Previous post was at 11:42 ----------


Based on informed analysis and how trade works.

You keep ignoring the fact that economic analysis is only as good as the information put in. Clearly, if you put emphasis on the negatives with insufficient regard for the positives, you will get a negative result. You keep going on about these economic forecasts because they support your mindset, forgetting how wrong previous forecasts have been.

Well, some of us won't get fooled again.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The PM has clarified that there will not be a second referendum and there will not be another General Election. She could not be any clearer and yet in your world, that's the only way forward.

Here, in the real world, we are looking at a vote in Parliament shortly that will result in the withdrawal agreement being abandoned, which will simply mean a 'no-deal' Brexit.

No constitutional crisis. Just a sizeable number of politicians scratching their heads and asking themselves what was so bad about the withdrawal agreement after all.

The PM was quite clear last time she said that there would not be another election.
I'm coming round to the idea that no-deal would be politically unacceptable so would be ruled out by Parliament. I think that Theresa May will keep on pushing for a vote until she gets the right result.

---------- Post added at 11:59 ---------- Previous post was at 11:49 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You keep ignoring the fact that economic analysis is only as good as the information put in. Clearly, if you put emphasis on the negatives with insufficient regard for the positives, you will get a negative result. You keep going on about these economic forecasts because they support your mindset, forgetting how wrong previous forecasts have been.

Well, some of us won't get fooled again.

I fear you're being fooled because the analysis suggests we'll be worse off but you ignore it time and time again as it doesn't fit into your viewpoint.
If there was overwhelming evidence that leaving the EU would make us better off then I and many others would be banging the drum for it. There isn't and I'm not.
Don't confuse the analysis you read now with poll night predictions and Cameron's remain literature. Entirely different things.

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Originally Posted by Maggy J

Once more I have had to edit the word remoaner from a post. This will be the last reminder about this.In future it will result in an infraction..

[Admin Edit: Dialogue to this instruction removed]

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

You have been unable to quantify that the best thing for this country is leaving at all. Until that time, which I expect to be the day after Elon Musk dies on Mars, it's a perfectly legitimate point for anyone to hold that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland remain part of the European Union.

Indeed, legitimately, that the deal on the table furthers the cause of Irish reunification and perhaps even Scottish independence. I don't see what is patriotic about the death of our great nation.

I don't see how I can 'prove' anything to you since it is not possible to determine how so many entrepreneurial people will react. Freed from the reins of the EU, there will be all sorts of initiatives that will be pursued and none of these can be taken into account before they have happened. However, once again, I would remind you that trade with the EU will carry on, either with or without tariffs, and we will be freed up to export more of our goods on our terms to the rest of the world. Additionally, we will be able to import cheaper goods from elsewhere, which will benefit people in this country.

How these economic forecasters can take account of so many new opportunities and freedom from EU bureaucracy when they don't understand how these advantages will be taken up, I don't know.

What I do know is that when governments get out of the way and let businesses get on with it, they thrive, and that's good for our economy.