General Election 2015: Voting intentions & general discussion

Originally Posted by Chris

It's at the bottom of the vulnerable list, but the sitting MP is retiring. The loss of an incumbent makes it that bit more risky.

Hopefully the SNP vote isn't quite as strong as the polls predict and there is a 'shy Unionist' voter base out there. That, and a strong tactical voting push, might limit the SNP gains from the wipeout predicted to merely astonishing.

One interesting thing that Ashcroft's polls have found is that Labour have had better contact rates than the SNP. Murphy is hopefully mobilising a better, more active, party who'll prove useful in the event of another referendum vote.

Shame Ruth Davidson is at the helm of a shell of a party being undermined by the UK Tories. She was easily the best in the Scottish Leader debates.

The problem with the unionist vote in this context is that it is split. The SNP has been very good at hanging on to Yes voters from last September, and 45% is frequently good enough to take a Westminster seat. Our best hope right now is. That the uniform swing calculations being made, are not up to the task, and that the Nats do less well than predicted.

[alferret]

Originally Posted by Osem

Didn't have you down as a nasty, evil, baby eating, poor hating, bedroom taxing, workforce exploiting, fat cat, Tory toff mate...

Neither did I

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by martyh

Quite a lot may be a large portion of the 7.5 million unregistered voters as well .

Four Royal Mail sacks bursting with registration forms delivered to the Town Hall in Leeds today.

There was some debate about having staff on until midnight tonight too.

Still got 30 mins to get online and register!!

Cheers

Grim

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth

Four Royal Mail sacks bursting with registration forms delivered to the Town Hall in Leeds today.

Oh blimey, we don't have the Bradford effect kicking in here do we? Hope someone checked the handwriting wasn't the same on loads of them. If they came from Morley it's not impossible

So received mailings from Labour, Conservatives and UKIP. The UKIP one had some laughable mistakes with its English, the Conservative one errored too. Presumably the Tory campaign got a bit excited over austerity and cut their proof-reader.

There was an error in the Labour one too. No idea when basic English became so difficult

Labour will win in this seat though, no question. UKIP will probably come second.

[Stephen]

I still can't believe how many people seem to be planning on voting for UKIP, after the nonsense that they stand for and all the rubbish they have said at the debates. Racist, bigoted and xenophobic group of muppets.

[Matth]

I might risk a EU protest vote on UKIP, but afraid of ... "vote Farage, get Miliband" - now if we'd got transferable vote, it would have been easy .. UKIP + Conservative.

Labour = not a chance in hell of a referendum
Conservative = promise of referendum (though we know what promises are worth)
LibDem = will probably hold Con back from referendum, or sabotage it.

I want my say on Europe - and as I see it, what we gain is not worth the price, so either we have a serious change in our one-sided relationship with the EU, or we should be prepared to leave, and since some things that do need changing appear to be non-negotiable (at least until the realistic threat of a net contributor leaving!), there may be no way to get the relationship we need.
Certainly, if we are to renegotiate with the EU, we must hang the sword of Damocles over them!

[denphone]

Originally Posted by martyh

Quite a lot may be a large portion of the 7.5 million unregistered voters as well .

Apparently 1.7 million of them have registered in the past 5 weeks but that still leaves nearly 6 million.

[heero_yuy]

Originally Posted by denphone

Apparently 1.7 million of them have registered in the past 5 weeks but that still leaves nearly 6 million.

You only need an "X" on a ballot paper, an electoral registration form's a bit more challenging.

Sky News had a bit on young voters yesterday and they were talking to them about why they're political disengaged. One guy said he might agree with some policies but not others and if voting for them he would be endorsing those policies he disagrees with and therefore has no one to vote for. The girl next time said it was all the fault of politicians why young people don't vote but then didn't expand the thought.

I swear that part of the reason for apathy is an inflated sense of entitlement that causes people to think that parties should be tailor made for them.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Damien

Sky News had a bit on young voters yesterday and they were talking to them about why they're political disengaged. One guy said he might agree with some policies but not others and if voting for them he would be endorsing those policies he disagrees with and therefore has no one to vote for. The girl next time said it was all the fault of politicians why young people don't vote but then didn't expand the thought.

I swear that part of the reason for apathy is an inflated sense of entitlement that causes people to think that parties should be tailor made for them.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/...e-comfortable/

Sums up what you're saying pretty well. If it's to any extent true the apathy is about hiding from the big bad world inside comfortable groupthink. As no mainstream party adheres to that groupthink, in no small part because it's simply not the real world and no-one is entitled to be comfortable, apparent apathy reigns.

[tweetiepooh]

Our local Tory MP is running a "positive campaign" highlighting what he believes are his successes and what he wants to do if elected.

The others are much more negative. One party highlighted what they see as a failing but to me was a real positive.

Just wondering how other areas are going in this sort of arena. I like positive campaigns.

[Ignitionnet]

I found this useful. This too.

It's also a great example of how, even across a relatively narrow collection of issues, no one party makes me feel entirely 'comfortable' though I am considerably closer to one of them than the others. However, life is full of compromises and very few live their lives a la carte, they usually come in a bundle.

---------- Post added at 11:46 ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 ----------

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

Our local Tory MP is running a "positive campaign" highlighting what he believes are his successes and what he wants to do if elected.

Yes, our former MP is highlighting his record. Tory leaflet is an attack sheet, UKIP one banging on about change; evidently including change to the English language going by the grammar used.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Sky News had a bit on young voters yesterday and they were talking to them about why they're political disengaged. One guy said he might agree with some policies but not others and if voting for them he would be endorsing those policies he disagrees with and therefore has no one to vote for. The girl next time said it was all the fault of politicians why young people don't vote but then didn't expand the thought.

I swear that part of the reason for apathy is an inflated sense of entitlement that causes people to think that parties should be tailor made for them.

I'd agree with that. Too many people wanting a govt. to sort out their problems and to hell with everyone else and their problems.


Just listening to Andrew Neil asking Labour spokesman Jamie Reid about their plans for NHS spending and the mansion tax - the revenue stream they're basing so many plans upon. I recommend everyone to check it out on iPlayer and see for themselves. Mr Reid refused to answer numerous legitimate questions about the 'tax' and which independent experts had given the advice that it would raise £1.2bn pa, simply repeating the same statements again and again. It's this sort of thing which turns so many people off IMHO. If they're going to carry on assuming the high ground they should at least live up to it.

The interview starts at 12.19 or thereabouts.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bb...windTo=current

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Actually the reason I'm not voting for them is because I don't believe them to be a socialist party with the workers interests at heart and I don't believe they've had a proper socialist leader since John Smith and you're an old boy, you remember the mess John Major made of the economy, how many people lost their houses and how long it took people to stop saying the things they say now about labour about them? Politics today is all about short termism and nothing any of them really does effects the economy dramatically their dogma might hold it back a little here and there but in the main it happens in spite of them not because of them.

I wouldn't say at all that John Major left the economy in a mess; Labour inherited a buoyant economy from the Conservatives, as they normally do. Compare this to the near disaster Thatcher inherited from Callaghan in 1979, when Britain was the poor man of Europe.

And again, when the current Government took over from Brown, we all know there was no money left.

The reality is that to have a successful Government delivering socialist policies, you need a good economy, which means not driving away the rich. Labour and the Scottish Nationalists will never learn!