Ukraine on the verge of civil war!

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Chris

The soldiers in the compounds will have been talking through the fence with the Russians outside. You could see as much in the BBC's report last night.

They will have been told what's afoot, they will have been told they can stay in their compounds and keep their honour, and as long as nobody starts waving a rifle about, the Russians will break the gates down early tomorrow morning and 'deport' the soldiers to Kiev.

We are witnessing the partition of Ukraine. It won't end in Crimea but I don't believe even Putin is mad enough to take it all the way to Kiev. He wants a Russian-friendly satellite on the Black Sea because otherwise his navy is screwed. A Russian-friendly East Ukraine, or more likely a series of autonomous republics, like Crimea, will give him that. The Westerners can then get on with cosying up to the EU.

It's just good old fashioned Soviet spheres of influence, deployed by a good old fashioned Soviet who doesn't know how to do international affairs in any other way.

And, to be frank, despite being disappointed in the mad dog way he's gone about it, I can entirely see why he would want to fix things in his back yard like this.

Don't be fooled by him, I think he might be one of the shrewdest, smartest politicians around, he runs rings around our lot anyway.

---------- Post added at 05:14 ---------- Previous post was at 05:13 ----------

Originally Posted by Osem

Yes, any suffering as a result of sanctions won't really be felt by them but by the ordinary people and he'll lay the blame squarely at the door of the EU and US.

Any sanctions won't be economic...

---------- Post added at 05:15 ---------- Previous post was at 05:14 ----------

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Will Putin go to the opening ceremony of the Paralympics?

Will he get booed?

I thought he would have invaded after the paralympics.

What like Gideon was at our olympics, one of the best parts of the games ever imo

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ohn-kerry-kiev

Pro-Russian troops who had taken control of an air base in Belbek fired warning shots into the air as Ukrainian soldiers marched towards them.

Russian soldiers guarding the Crimean airfield warned the group of about 300 Ukrainians, who were unarmed, not to approach. They fired several warning shots into the air and said they would open fire if they continued to march toward them.

https://twitter.com/shustry/status/440744432124837888

Russians back down, allow 10 Ukraine soldiers to take up positions at occupied base, but still awaiting orders from Moscow

https://twitter.com/shustry/status/440755570040373248

Ukraine Colonel still negotiating, Russian snipers & RPGs still aiming at column of soldiers. But deescalation is clear, at least in Belbek

---------- Post added at 10:39 ---------- Previous post was at 09:08 ----------

UN Russian Envoy speaks. Doesn't sound good : http://vimeo.com/87939821

[Osem]

I can't see Putin being too fazed by any EU threats, he knows the member states will spend weeks or months arguing the toss before deciding on anything, if they can decide on anything at all that is...

Meanwhile Obama continues to talk the talk whilst failing to walk the walk. He didn't do anything much about Syria and won't do anything much about this.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...rom-all-sides/

[Kabaal]

Of course he's not, he holds all the cards. It would be insane to start a potential war with Russia over this. Other than posturing and sanctions there's really not much can be done about it.

[Osem]

Just watching John Kerry pontificating. Why do so many American politicians look like Spitting Image puppets?

[Osem]

Leaders of the G7 group of nations have called on Russia to stop all efforts to "annex" Ukraine's Crimea region.

They said if Russia took such a step they would "take further action, individually and collectively".

The G7 leaders also said they would not recognise the results of a referendum in Crimea this weekend on whether to split from Ukraine and join Russia.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's national security chief has warned of a major Russian military build-up on Ukraine's borders.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26547138

The trouble is that Putin believes he can get away with acting unilaterally and we're always on the back foot reacting, if you can call it that, after the event.

[Ignitionnet]

This whole situation is dirty.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukraine-pro...lition-1439035

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ton-urmas-paet

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/pe...kraine-rebels/

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Osem

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26547138

The trouble is that Putin believes he can get away with acting unilaterally and we're always on the back foot reacting, if you can call it that, after the event.

In his mind it could be that the West is reaping what we sowed, he warned us against setting a precedent with Kosovo and we refused to listen

Definately details in all of this that we are not aware of and possibly explaining the russian reaction to all this as this was not the clear cut case of good vs evil. Opposition clearly wanted yanukovich out and seem to have gone to great lengths to create resentment against him and if those snipers were working on behalf of the opposition they are not the sort we want to ally with are they ?. Either way before anymore western windbags chime in the issue of the snipers surely has to be settled because it is a rather important detail.

[Ignitionnet]

Ukraine has natural resources and would be a great source of cheap labour for the EU. They are of course extremely enthusiastic to get Ukraine into the bloc as quickly as possible.

[Sirius]

Looks like it could move up a notch now

http://news.sky.com/story/1227970/so...rm-crimea-base

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk says the Crimea crisis has entered a "military stage" after troops stormed an army base in Simferopol.

One Ukrainian soldier has reportedly died after being shot in the neck when a group of gunmen attacked the compound.

Regional defence ministry spokesman Vladislav Seleznyov said a second soldier was wounded in the attack.

I think there will be a retaliatory indecent over this

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Sirius

Looks like it could move up a notch now

http://news.sky.com/story/1227970/so...rm-crimea-base

I think there will be a retaliatory indecent over this

Anyone have any SPF 50,000,000?

[Sirius]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Anyone have any SPF 50,000,000?

It's OK - I live near Sheffield, and it's a Nuclear-Free zone....

[Osem]

I dare say Salmond will pop up shortly claiming that an independent Scotland will be safe too...

Early days yet of course and let's pray that things don't escalate out of control but doesn't this just highlight how, when it comes to defence planning, the future's always uncertain?