Virgin should buy TiVo...

[mersey70]

Originally Posted by Digital Fanatic

I's worth noting, that although they did lose a lot of subcribers, they also added 60,000 new subs in that quarter.

They do need a change of fortune in the US though. That churn rate isn't healthy!

You cannot polish a turd, they had a net loss of 223,000 customers in 3 months as I read it.

The churn rate is much more than unhealthy, it is the stuff on bankruptcy when you only have just over 2 million customers to start with, they lost 131,000 in the same quarter a year before so the churn is getting far, far worse.

They have lost well over 20% of their total customer base in a year, it's staggering.

There must be a reason for it, I would imagine the same reasons will apply here.

Until it is the de facto platform here I sadly think it will struggle but genuinely hope I am totally wrong.

I also hope they win their cases if they are justified thugh, the last thing Sky's competitors needs is another dead duck.

[Perfect Choice]

As long as VM have Escrow rights to the Tivo software build on the Cisco box, then there really shouldn't be an issue here. Tivo may be getting a bumpy ride in the USA due to their past Cable provider independance I guess, but they seem to be trying to address this now.

I notice from the fiercecable link posted earlier that the revenue loss wasn't quite as bad, so P&L losses are one thing, business revenues and cash in particular are another; see statement below.

"For now, TiVo reported a net loss of $34.4 million compared to $10 million on revenues that were down to $41.4 million from $45.3 million last year."

Update: Just found the results statement on Yahoo, worth a read:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TiVo-R....html?x=0&.v=1

[LexDiamond]

Originally Posted by mersey70

You cannot polish a turd, they had a net loss of 223,000 customers in 3 months as I read it.

The churn rate is much more than unhealthy, it is the stuff on bankruptcy when you only have just over 2 million customers to start with, they lost 131,000 in the same quarter a year before so the churn is getting far, far worse.

They have lost well over 20% of their total customer base in a year, it's staggering.

There must be a reason for it, I would imagine the same reasons will apply here.

Until it is the de facto platform here I sadly think it will struggle but genuinely hope I am totally wrong.

I also hope they win their cases if they are justified thugh, the last thing Sky's competitors needs is another dead duck.

I haven't looked at how Tivo are set up but the probability is that Tivo in UK and US are separate entities. I doubt Tivo would be naïve enough to have its foreign operations dependent on its US entity particularly when VM are giving them a partnership for a huge customer base.

My guess would be that the UK partnership with VM would be very lucrative as all Tivo are doing here is technology they already have.

[mersey70]

Originally Posted by Perfect Choice

As long as VM have Escrow rights to the Tivo software build on the Cisco box, then there really shouldn't be an issue here. Tivo may be getting a bumpy ride in the USA due to their past Cable provider independance I guess, but they seem to be trying to address this now.

I notice from the fiercecable link posted earlier that the revenue loss wasn't quite as bad, so P&L losses are one thing, business revenues and cash in particular are another; see statement below.

"For now, TiVo reported a net loss of $34.4 million compared to $10 million on revenues that were down to $41.4 million from $45.3 million last year."

Update: Just found the results statement on Yahoo, worth a read:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TiVo-R....html?x=0&.v=1

It is a typical press statement which is what that article has been lifted from.

Nevertheless the numbers are awful overall.

You don't get your rating changed from 'hold' to 'sell' for nothing. Let's all hope the move to Europe is the tonic the company needs because it's looks like they need growth from somewhere other than it's home market.

Fingers crossed.

---------- Post added at 14:19 ---------- Previous post was at 14:17 ----------

Originally Posted by LexDiamond

I haven't looked at how Tivo are set up but the probability is that Tivo in UK and US are separate entities. I doubt Tivo would be naïve enough to have its foreign operations dependent on its US entity particularly when VM are giving them a partnership for a huge customer base.

My guess would be that the UK partnership with VM would be very lucrative as all Tivo are doing here is technology they already have.

But it's technology that seems to be getting rejected elsewhere in favour of cheaper kit. Not just in the US but Australia too.

We'll see.

[LexDiamond]

That's true and IMHO I'm surprised a company like Tivo actually survived this long considering it hasn't done too much to update its product, which wasn't all the useful to the average guy in the first place.

But in the UK the situation is different. They will probably have more customers here than they have in the US as VM's plans mean we VM customers will eventually not have a choice as to whether or not we actually want the Tivo. The service over here isn't the same as the US as the stb isn't by them but still it should be lucrative for them and they also have potential to expand its range of services.

[mersey70]

Originally Posted by LexDiamond

That's true and IMHO I'm surprised a company like Tivo actually survived this long considering it hasn't done too much to update its product, which wasn't all the useful to the average guy in the first place.

But in the UK the situation is different. They will probably have more customers here than they have in the US as VM's plans mean we VM customers will eventually not have a choice as to whether or not we actually want the Tivo. The service over here isn't the same as the US as the stb isn't by them but still it should be lucrative for them and they also have potential to expand its range of services.

For the life of me I do not understand why VM didn't go to a trusted long standing partner like Kudelski (who own the Nagra CA system) but who also own the highly successful and advanced Open TV middleware and get a more mainstream subscription free solution from them.

They could have come up with an answer to replace the ageing Liberate middleware and it would have been more then enough for most customers and as it's in well over 100m STB's (includng Sky's) they must be doing something right.

Tivo just seems expensive, bloated and provides features most of us couldn't care less about.

[muppetman11]

I wonder if some of these free VM TIVO boxes have been supplied with TIVO money to try and help take up in light of their dire US subscriber figures.

[weesteev]

I wouldnt look too much into TiVo's position in the US, its very different to the commercial deals it has with VM and other US providers. TiVo is a direct reseller of cable boxes in the US, but cable cards are required to use the service which is extra cost. Also, no providers will allow TiVo to use the Cableco's VOD services so unless they have another cable box from their provider they will only get the standard TiVo services which makes it a very niche service.

Other providers are starting to sign up TiVo to provide bespoke PVR software (Virgin Media, RCN) which supplements existing services like VOD so very different to having a TiVo box, say with Time Warner, where you would only get Live TV and the TiVo functions.

US providers are forcing people into taking their own PVR equipment (plus rental charges) as they will get a complete service compared to TiVo.

I believe TiVo will slowly exit the consumer market in the US and only offer commercial resale of software to providers, like the current VM deal.

[muppetman11]

Read this about TIVO on comcast

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-9956012-1.html

Interesting the comcast TiVo service costs $2.95 similar charge to the VM one

http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb...d.php?t=417235

[mersey70]

Originally Posted by weesteev

I wouldnt look too much into TiVo's position in the US, its very different to the commercial deals it has with VM and other US providers. TiVo is a direct reseller of cable boxes in the US, but cable cards are required to use the service which is extra cost. Also, no providers will allow TiVo to use the Cableco's VOD services so unless they have another cable box from their provider they will only get the standard TiVo services which makes it a very niche service.

Other providers are starting to sign up TiVo to provide bespoke PVR software (Virgin Media, RCN) which supplements existing services like VOD so very different to having a TiVo box, say with Time Warner, where you would only get Live TV and the TiVo functions.

US providers are forcing people into taking their own PVR equipment (plus rental charges) as they will get a complete service compared to TiVo.

I believe TiVo will slowly exit the consumer market in the US and only offer commercial resale of software to providers, like the current VM deal.

You are forgetting that Cable Companies have their own implementation of Tivo too like Comcast (the biggest cableco and the service is very cheap too), Comporium, Northland and RCN who all offer their own Tivo kit which do indeed provide access to all their own own demand services but customers are clearly stiill preferring the basic, cheaper PVR's.

I understand and agree with some of what you say, however I don't think you lose that many customers so quickly without having some sort of a problem with your product. It can't all be the cableco's fault, I don't accept that.

Let's hope they get their act together.

[LexDiamond]

Originally Posted by mersey70

For the life of me I do not understand why VM didn't go to a trusted long standing partner like Kudelski (who own the Nagra CA system) but who also own the highly successful and advanced Open TV middleware and get a more mainstream subscription free solution from them.

They could have come up with an answer to replace the ageing Liberate middleware and it would have been more then enough for most customers and as it's in well over 100m STB's (includng Sky's) they must be doing something right.

Tivo just seems expensive, bloated and provides features most of us couldn't care less about.

Tivo has something the other companies don't and that is brand recognition in the mainstream. I doubt VM's marketing for a move to platform only basis with a focus on the digital age would have been anywhere near as strong if its partner wasn't a strong brand.

[HDFootyMan]

As TiVo get weaker, Virgin gets stronger:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11031...lume-vmed.html

Interesting.

[mersey70]

Originally Posted by LexDiamond

Tivo has something the other companies don't and that is brand recognition in the mainstream. I doubt VM's marketing for a move to platform only basis with a focus on the digital age would have been anywhere near as strong if its partner wasn't a strong brand.

I doubt Tivo means anything to most people in the UK

Personally I had never heard of it before VM said the were introducing it.

[LexDiamond]

Originally Posted by mersey70

I doubt Tivo means anything to most people in the UK

Personally I had never heard of it before VM said the were introducing it.

As far as companies that do what it does, Tivo is way more recognisable. In terms of press coverage it must really help VM that they can say they begin their platform only incarnation with Tivo.

[mersey70]

Originally Posted by LexDiamond

As far as companies that do what it does, Tivo is way more recognisable. In terms of press coverage it must really help VM that they can say they begin their platform only incarnation with Tivo.

Tivo is not a recognisable brand in the UK, not yet anyway. I hope in 5 years everyone knows what it is purely as I want to see competition even if I am no longer a VM customer.

And as it only has 2 million customers worldwide after around 10 years it probably isn't that well known at all.

You would probably agree that the term 'Sky+' is part of common language these days, even if the PVR people have isn't actually a Sky box, i.e. 'i'll Sky+ it', I have even said it myself as I know that people will know what I mean.

If I said 'V+ it' they probably wouldn't know what I meant unless they were with VM.