Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
[COLOR="Blue"]The Makerfield result show that Reform UK has peaked under opresent political circumstances.
However, Labour won’t be able to turn things round (imo) because Burnham hasn’t explained how he will obtain significant economic growth.
So, after a short honeymoon and some deft work by Farage, I reckon Reform UK will rise again. Farage should consult me! Maybe OB can arrange that!
|
I am not sure how Reform breaks out of the 30%(ish) ceiling they seem to have. Farage and Reform are very divisive, and every time they double down on their base, they alienate everyone else. They seem to have hit a cap on Tory voters they can peel away, and the broader left-wing vote seems to be self-organising to vote against Reform by coalescing around whichever candidate is more likely to win.
Restore seems to be a bit of a paper tiger. Still, they're clearly also scaring Reform into doubling down on populist nativism, which again alienates anyone else they hope to reach.
How do they square that circle? It's the same problem the Greens will have if they ever do pose a serious threat to Labour, given their extreme naivety on foreign affairs (at best!) and more insane positions alienate anyone beyond a hard core base.