Damien

Labour getting rid of the winter fuel payment was a big miss. It didn't save much money, and whilst it made logical sense, it cost them far too much politically. Given the damage they got for it, they would have been better to take the hit on the triple-lock. Turn into a double-lock and remove the link to average earnings growth. A government will have to do that eventually. It would be a huge political hit, but at least it would free up substantial space in the budget they could use to do some politically popular things.

They're taking big political hits on small-ticket cuts. They need money for investment, they need money for social care and the NHS. Take a big political hit on something that will allow you to make a big decision.

As for the Tories, I don't know what to say. They've gone complete Twitter-brain. They've got little to say about people's material circumstances and instead Badenoch loves the 'culture war' issues, the social issues. She isn't going to outflank Reform on that, meanwhile, Reform has a populist economic message that outflanks both parties.

I said the other week that Labour are chasing a 1990s Thatcher voter that no longer exists, and the Tories think they're going to win by going after right-wing culture war internet bros.