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Old 16-08-2024, 09:20   #184
Hugh
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Re: US Election 2024

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
He’s got form for that kind of thing with John McCain has he not?

Listening to a podcast yesterday (openly Democrat supporting) one suggested to guard against complacency that although Biden 2020 won the popular vote by 7 million votes and was outside the margin of error (sometimes comfortably) the Electoral College came down to 40,000 votes in just three states. Harris is polling closer to that than Biden was in 2024.
On that point…

https://wapo.st/3WLWLyA

Quote:
On the face of it, Harris’s small lead in the national polls and trends in swing states don’t look like enough for her to be the favorite in the electoral college. According to our model, Trump continues to lead in a majority of the battleground states — and if you count up the electoral votes and award them to the candidates leading in those states, Trump comes in at 283 and Harris at 255. The first to 270 wins.

The reason Harris is now the favorite is because Harris has closed the gap with Trump in Sun Belt states enough to open a second path to the presidency.
Because the polls underestimated Trump in the last two presidential elections, we often associate polling errors with a potential upside for Republicans. But it’s important to remember that polling errors can go either way. And a 2012-sized error (not a cycle we usually associate with an error at all) would now be enough to put Harris over the top.

The other, and more crucial, reason that Harris is favored is that her improvement in the polls has opened up a second path on the presidential battlefield and in the electoral college. The polling suggests that, unlike Biden, she is no longer effectively tied to the Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — to hit 270 electoral votes. As of today, Harris is now only a typically sized polling error away from winning key Sun Belt states. Winning all of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia would also be enough to put Harris over the top and she is continuing to improve her position in those states.

Our model shows that for Trump to win the White House, he would need to notch victories in both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt. But crucially for Harris, she would win by taking just one of those two paths.

For now, that is a game changer.
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