Quote:
Originally Posted by Bircho
Except that 75% of our imports come from the EU and 25% from the rest of the world. Remember our exports to the EU is mainly services and in this sector we run a surplus of around £15 billion.
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Yikes. During today we've gone from 55% of our imports coming from the EU to 75%.
Given there are no tariffs on services it's pretty good that our exports to them are largely these, so that's comforting.
They can't arbitrarily slap tariffs on us. We would default to Most Favoured Nation status within the WTO. We'd be subject, at worst, to the same Common Customs Tariff as everywhere else.
Obviously with 2 years of negotiation before exit we'd have ample opportunity for our market to begin to work with suppliers outside the EU. Outside of the CCT there wouldn't be large tariffs being placed on goods like foods and solar panels in order to protect French farmers or German manufacturers.
It's really not as simple as doom and gloom, neither would it be a smooth and painless transition. It's not beyond the wit of man to get it done.
EDIT: All this said I should mention that if people think we're not going to negotiate free movement or something basically indistinguishable from it post-Brexit as part of a deal you're mental. It's not about that for me and I'm fine with it.