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The point I am making is that there are many potential ways around this problem of the Irish border if the will is there and I think we should consider what is happening right now. If we take a look at what happens at the external EU border currently, most of the necessary formalities are conducted electronically, with pre-arrival checks which in some cases are followed up at warehouses. Currently, the HMRC only physically checks 4% of goods arriving in the EU at the external border and the Irish authorities check only 1%.So, in practice, we are already seeing 95% of goods pass the border with no checks. Given that, one can see why the government's two recent suggestions make sense, in particular, the idea of a maximum facilitation arrangement. This involves managing rather than eliminating customs checks, with more businesses being granted 'trusted trader' status. This allows traders to settle their dues at regular intervals rather than every time they moved goods across the border. This is not a million miles away from existing arrangements, and to reject the idea out of hand does not exactly show Barnier in a favourable light. He will eventually have to face the wrath of the remaining EU countries if he rejects an arrangement that would benefit both sides. Given the degree to which Ireland relies on trade with the UK, they would be stark, raving mad to follow Barnier's line for much longer. As I've said before, this is a show to get public attention and to strike the best deal for the EU. Say what you like about Theresa May, but she has not buckled under this pressure. Cameron would have shied away from the fight in the early stages, and Corbyn would buckle and ask the EU what else they wanted from us! |
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I would suggest that most of the people who voted Leave had a more adult perspective on why they voted the way they did. ---------- Post added at 12:08 ---------- Previous post was at 12:04 ---------- Quote:
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this. the only people pushing the idea of a hard border is the EU they are using the good Friday agreement (something they have nothing to do with) as political capital |
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To my mind, the 'maximum facilitation' idea that has been put forward by the UK has considerable merit. |
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WTO rules require a hard border if there was no agreement between the EU and a third country. Ireland is concerned that a hard border would encourage the revival of terrorism and the EU is looking after its members' interests. The UK may have the upper hand when negotiating with Ireland but the position is reversed when the EU negotiates with the UK. Of course, the UK has yet to propose a solution for the Irish border as the cabinet is split down the middle on two impractical ideas. It will decide which of these ideas sinks the least in July. |
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Though the EU had nothing to do with the GFA, two of its' members were involved and the other 26 countries are supporting the continuation of the agreement, hence the position agreed by the European Council. |
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You can't have it both ways, if one isn't an issue neither is the other. If one is an issue / problem then they both are, for the same reason, in both scenarios. Quote:
If not, then friction-less trade is a no go. |
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And why you seem to think that the EU has the upper hand eludes me. They export more to us than we do to them, and when the crunch comes to the crunch, the remaining EU countries will demand a deal. .After all, they won't vote to be poorer. :D |
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By the way, who’s talking about France? I thought we were talking about the Ireland/Northern Ireland border! You are pretty messed up, man! |
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Only 3500 dead and 50000 wounded. The troubles were just a bit of a laugh really
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Fake outrage how wonderful :nono:
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You are talking about more trade. The emphasis being on the "talking" part. You may not have voted to be poorer, however some will be still happy if they are. |
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How can more trade make us poorer? |
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Even those rare beasts, the pro-Brexit economists, acknowledge that we will be poorer. You may recall that Brexiter Patrick Minford said that whilst we would survive with a hard Brexit, manufacturing would be wiped out. It looks like he was onto something. :( |
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However, the economic impacts of Brexit are no laughing matter. :( Losing frictionless access to the largest market in the world for goods and services and one that is on our doorstep together with all its free trade deals across the world with countries like Chile, Canada and South Korea does not mean that the rest of the world will want to step in and replace it. Indeed, it's countries outside the EU with big investments in the UK like India, Japan and Canada who are warning us about the follies of a hard Brexit, even if the backstop agreement were to permit such a thing! There's an in-depth article today in the FT looking at customs processes, supply chains and just-in-time manufacturing in the car industry. It makes for sobering reading. Quote:
Personally, I'm optimistic that common sense will prevail and that Britain will effectively remain in a customs and goods union with the EU. |
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How, exactly, do you think we will be able to forge our own trade deals if we remain in the customs union? That notion is a fantasy. The government has made it very clear. We will be out of the EU, out of the common market and out of the customs union. A way will be found to achieve a frictionless border. |
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I'm afraid the cat's out of the bag and the implications of the choices that the country has to make are becoming clear. Boris's F-business rant says it all and unlike the Heathrow vote, he can't fly out of the country to miss it. ---------- Post added at 09:05 ---------- Previous post was at 08:58 ---------- Quote:
The question with Brexit is how less trade with the developing world, Asia Pacific, America and Europe and on worse terms with more red tape will make us richer. |
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However, a hard Brexit would make us a bit poorer for a time, while we adjust to the new arrangements. ---------- Post added at 10:00 ---------- Previous post was at 09:55 ---------- Quote:
Your second paragraph assumes that our trade with the rest of the world will diminish, whereas our ability to forge new trade deals tailored to our needs will increase it. I agree that without a trade deal, WTO rules for all our trade will produce disruption in the short term, but that is not the scenario the government envisages. |
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We will get a bespoke deal that addresses all these issues, but remaining in the Customs Union won't be one of them. If it was, we would be better staying in the EU, and that's what I would call looking forward to a dystopian future, where we lose the ability to govern ourselves and by stealth have all our freedoms taken away by bureaucrats, who finally thwart the politicians. The future outside of the EU, by comparison, is distinctly rosy. I do believe the country is ready to take on the challenge. ---------- Post added at 12:17 ---------- Previous post was at 11:37 ---------- Quote:
I see no reason why the country would be poorer if Theresa May achieves the trade deal she's said she will get, and remains confident of getting. ---------- Post added at 12:21 ---------- Previous post was at 12:17 ---------- Quote:
https://brexitcentral.com/practical-...-irish-border/ Extract: Tier 1: Gold Standard treatment: Major Authorised Economic Operators (MAEO) for major commercial operations carrying high volume, low risk traffic. The EU already has an operational AEO scheme with lorries carrying stickers in their windows. A similar system is used on the US/Canadian and Mexican borders entitled Free and Safe Trade (FAST). This involves a number of checks in advance and participants declare their cargoes in advance online. No checks are made at the border. The existing ‘trusted trader’ scheme works very well alongside: this ensures commercial operators that meet certain standards are given a special status with reduced paperwork, fewer document controls, priority treatment, and reduced delays and inspections. This is again successfully used on the US-Canada border with trucks hardly changing gear. Tier 2: Silver Standard: A Special Authorised Economic Operators (SpAEO) based too on the existing EU AEO scheme but limited to the island of Ireland. This will be for the majority of participants and be more relaxed and very affordable for the MAEO treatment. Everything would be online and everyone would have their own account. This scheme would work well for the estimated 80-90 percent of cross border trade in Ireland accounted for by small businesses – SMEs or micro-businesses – which are predominately in agriculture. Tier 3: Bronze Standard: Pre-arrival Customs Clearance (PACC). This is based on best practice in pre-clearance systems worldwide and is limited to occasional and low-value transactions, and small scale operators in vans. It would all be done online. The aim would be to make the system no more onerous than making an online application for a credit card or the London congestion charge system where payments can be made in advance or on the following day. The PACC’s aim should be to clear in as little as one hour before travel, a performance standard major countries meet now. The EU Customs Code already provides for the Simplified/Supplemental Declaration procedure for registered businesses. |
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BREAKING: European Union Withdrawal Bill receives Royal Assent from the Queen. Brexit becomes Law.
:cleader::cleader::cleader: |
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The EU are the ones who are pro trade, not the ones that are pro union / anti-globalization and protectionist. That would be the modern day populists in the UK government and round the world. |
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:cleader::woot::cleader::woot::cleader::woot: |
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Let's see what we can make of it, though. You are right, the UK does not need to be in a custom's union...nobody is disputing that. You just can't have friction-less trade with the EU then. Your call to make. Quote:
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Could Ireland join Schengen? If Eire did start to review its Schengen options, that would add another challenge to the "open" border solution. |
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You are continuing to ignore the simple fact that the EU exports more to us than we do to them. These other EU countries have already started to express disquiet with Barnier's hard line approach. Watch this space. By the way, it was less than half the electorate that voted to remain, not half. And those that didn't vote don't care or haven't a clue. ---------- Post added at 18:14 ---------- Previous post was at 18:11 ---------- Quote:
Well, guess what, folks....... :D |
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Right, that's that clear. :D |
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Read this today in the Times:
Attachment 27460 It is pretty vicious. The party that used to be the "Party of Business" seems no more. The author may have a (Murdoch) axe to grind but this is pretty accurate: Quote:
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And you mustn't forget that Boris is Boris. :D ---------- Post added at 20:35 ---------- Previous post was at 20:33 ---------- Quote:
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I think Boris is almost trying to get fired. His backing off from Heathrow doesn't help either.
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The EU referendum vote was one of the largest Democratic processes in modern political history, the result is the will of the people, 52% to be precise, any other figure by you, is clutching at straws and is incorrect! |
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It is pointless to bring non-voters into the equation as they had a choice and didn't care enough to vote. I think there is a valid point about young people who've had this decision which will impact them made by older generations but I guess this is true of all elections and it's rarely a demographic that the electorate seems to care about so it's not unusual.
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This was on Channel 4 last night, a briefing to the new US Ambassador to London on Brexit - https://twitter.com/davemacladd/stat...786314240?s=19. The full program is here - http://www.channel4.com/programmes/i...mand/66335-001 with that clip 21 minutes in.
Yikes! |
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It highlights a paradox: normally, throughout human evolution, parents & grandparents make decisions that will better, financially, socially, etc. their offspring. In a lot of situations, the older generations have gone without so that their offspring will have a better chance in life. In this case, the older generation have determined that the future they want (but a lot will not see) is the opposite of that the younger generation desire. |
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I think he didn't want to waste that on the airport vote, which like he has said is not likely to proceed anyway (court challenges, future governments etc) so why waste his new found way of tormenting May on a nothing vote. Speaking cabinet bickering, Liz Truss was the latest one to wade in... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol...inet-colleague She took a shot at Gove: Quote:
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Swipes also at Javid and Williamson who seem to have done the same and sympathy for Hammond who has to find money for all this "increased budgeting". Oh, and the macho nature of government. So she got her shots in, now I think it is high time for a fight within the Johnson family so that we can turn this Jerry Springer cabinet into a Maury Povich family split. The brunt of her attack was saved for the bc / illegitimate offspring of the cabinet, Michael Gove but she laid it on pretty thick for the rest. Less Hammond of course, who is her boss after all. In some circles, many would call May her ultimate boss. But of course most of us don't believe in Narnia. You know as much as I have criticized May, if I were in the cabinet / an MP, I would do the same as every other member ; trash the living crap out of her, either through frustration or an ego boost / thrill seeking and then glare her down and ask her what the hell she was going to do about it. Good times. :D Odds on next cabinet member to rip the rest a new one / humiliate May? What does everyone think? |
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There are some areas around the fringes like health cards, repayment periods etc and maybe the terminology used for any UK-EU customs union but generally, what's on offer depends on what rules the UK is happy to follow. Want to use the golf club toilets if you're in the area and caught short? You must pay £1 towards costs and agree to flush the toilet afterwards or the club chairman will fine you. Don't agree to allow the club chairman to fine you if you don't flush the toilet? Sorry, you can't use the toilet, that's unfair on the members. As you point out, it's apparent from postings on here that many fail to get this but this lack of understanding also extends to some Labour and Conservative MPs. And some who do get it will doubtless be happy to talk up a potential deal that could only happen if Aslan and not Theresa May was PM. :D There is a great quote that summarises the situation: Quote:
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You cannot bring in people who could not be arsed to vote and people ineligible to vote. 52% of those who decided to vote in one of the biggest ever democratic processes, chose Brexit. NO other figure you bring is relevant-end of! |
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Suggesting old people shouldn't vote on something because they won't be around in the future, is ageism and is prejudice and it is not acceptable to say old people have less of a say than young people, everyone has equal say, no matter what. (I am not saying you are personally saying this but it's the impression I am getting from others). It is no point the young who were eligible to vote, complaining now, when they had the chance to vote and papa says, were too busy trying to hunt pokoman's. :rolleyes: It was the biggest mistake joining a union that became corrupt and so financially unbalanced, in where we have now only 10 member States, who put more in to the EU, than get out and we are one of them, that's some significant downfall and is not sustainable as we are finding out. Thank goodness we are finally leaving that corrupted mess, the pathetic shackles they had on us will finally be removed. 40 years in the making, there is no way in hell, I would have voted for that, if I was eligible to, back in the 70's. |
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I have conveyed my view, with justifications, on many occasions now, and so Andrew's 'straw man' argument that you have taken to repeating doesn't stand up in the first place. ---------- Post added at 09:22 ---------- Previous post was at 09:16 ---------- Quote:
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Although there are exceptions the evidence suggests demographics as a whole vote in their own best interest. Young people vote for parties that'll make university cheaper, Older people vote for parties which will increase their pensions. It would be better to be honest about that rather than pretend it's altruistic. |
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Only those in genuine need should get handouts from taxpayers' money. ---------- Post added at 09:46 ---------- Previous post was at 09:45 ---------- Quote:
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Young people aren't stupid, they know why the government is doing it. So it's no surprise that someone like Corbyn makes inroads. |
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And I am not talking about the NHS generally since I agree they would disproportionately suffer. I am talking about sexual and mental health services aimed at teenagers and young adults which were closed. Youth centers too incidentally. If it's aimed at young people and paid for by government chances are it's been cut/abolished. |
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So where is the money coming from to do all the things you want the NHS to pay for, all the benefits to be paid, etc? Yes, it's getting even more difficult as the oldies retire in greater numbers and the young find they have to start paying their way. To be fair, most do, but the increase in the number of people who think the money should just land on their plates is worrying. Anyway, one way of making more money to provide for people is for this country to increase its income. Brexit provides us with an opportunity to do that. Continued membership of the EU is steadily but slowly leading to economic stagnation, and it will get far worse with the next financial crisis. |
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Agreed, the EU were not responsible for that either, but their crazy Euro project was so ill thought out that there were casualties like Greece, Portugal and Spain, which almost brought all the dominos down with catastrophic effect. It will happen again, and next time these economies may collapse altogether because it will take so long for them to recover from the last one. |
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Just be honest, they voted for what they wanted and for no other reason. |
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As for your comment that the older generation don’t care about the younger generation, I think that says rather a lot about you and your attitude. I love my daughters and grandkids and want a better life for them than I had. So how dare you! |
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How Britain Voted Quote:
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If you could learn to type (and quit lying while you were at it) it would help. Quote:
You have done it twice to me, in the space of a couple weeks and you know full well that Ianch99 was not being serious, making a joke - due to your inability to articulate. |
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Me too - hopefully a staff member will come in and clean the entire chain. :)
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The older, wiser people, would have voted for remain had they not have had grounds for dissatisfaction with the EU. The older generation had wisdom on their side (whether leave or remain), the younger generation had idealism. The older folk have not necessarily voted for the future they want; the are not stupid - they know they won't be here at some point. But they do want the younger generation not to have to suffer under the Brussels turds. Finally, and to preserve your credibility as I have asked for this twice before, you should do us all the courtesy of confirming the Churchill quote you made a few posts back. I can't find it and would really be interested to know what you meant. |
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Why would older people vote for a worse future for their sons, daughters and grandchildren? Your argument doesn't make sense unless you yourself don't give a fig. In which case, I just hope for the sake of your offspring that your attitude changes with maturity. ---------- Post added at 20:37 ---------- Previous post was at 20:31 ---------- Quote:
Incidentally, I am completely at a loss about the alleged bad grammar and 'making up random c**p'. What the hell are you talking about? Would you care to elaborate so I can give a sensible response to your post? By the way, we are debating issues here, no need to get personal. :sorry: |
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One of the reasons I wanted to remain was because of my kids. I don’t really talk about it much on here as it is more about feelings and a little self serving but here it is as we are talking about age...
My kids are 10 and 12 and as they get older, I would very much like them to work abroad. Casual work would be fine - strap on a rucksack and get out there and do bar or restaurant work for the summer. I was lucky enough to work abroad when I was 21 and it changed my outlook on life completely. It’s tough moving to another country, it definitely makes you grow up quick! It also gives you a much broader outlook on different nationalities. That opportunity has been taken away from them and that’s a real shame. Yes, I am sure they will still be able to get jobs abroad but no way as easily as they could if we stayed in the EU. See told you it was a bit fluffy and self serving! |
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Don't you think you will think that way when you mature? ---------- Post added at 20:54 ---------- Previous post was at 20:49 ---------- Quote:
Seriously, I do understand your point, which I think concentrated on the opportunities youngsters have at that age. My decision was based more on the economy, and ensuring that my kids and theirs as they get older are able to share in the wealth that a healthy and vibrant economy can bring. |
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If you put the economy in there and then go back to Norman Tebbits ‘get on your bike and find work’ speech, then the distance we can cycle has become significantly less. |
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In an earlier post you prayed in aid to your shallow argument a so-called quote from Churchill. I can't find that quote and I've asked several times for you to point me (and everyone else) to the actual words issued by the great man. You're at perfect liberty to ignore the challenge, but if you can't substantiate what you said your credibility is shot. ---------- Post added at 21:40 ---------- Previous post was at 21:32 ---------- Quote:
As I've said before, I'm not going to complain if we stay in the EU provided we keep our picador sticks sharp for prodding the Brussels turds. Also we need to keep sharp about German hegemony, keep in mind the German engineering the Euro to their advantage and French objection to CAP reform. |
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---------- Post added at 12:42 ---------- Previous post was at 12:23 ---------- For those who are just too lazy to do some research, here is the text of Churchill's speech in 1957 where he expresses his wish for a United Europe and the UK to join a European free trade area: The Unwritten Alliance By Winston S. Churchill |
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Putting this here since it's a positive development about the economy which is kind Brexit related: https://order-order.com/2018/06/28/b...ssie-warships/
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