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Old 01-07-2018, 22:46   #61
Chloé Palmas
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
You're wrong there, Chloé. It's approaching 'get real' time. If we don't get anywhere with the EU, May will simply go for the hard Brexit. However, I think she is trying to avoid that by getting other EU countries on side. They have a firmer grasp of reality than Barnier & co.
Well, they will get the final say (along with their parliaments) so you'll get a chance to test that theory...if it even gets that far?

If they don't get as far, May will never go for a hard Brexit - ever. She just threatens as much from time to time to fill her daily bout / dose of attention seeking / robotic "appease my hardliners" phase...then the remain folks will start pulling the strings and off she goes to placate them and round her phase of "giving" goes.

Quote:
I think a lot of bad things about the EU, but I don't think they are actually certifiably mad, and that we will get a deal with them.
Barnier is principally someone who believes that a coherent single market with intelligent rules that apply everywhere - going in the EU intentionally had him set as the chief negotiator to send the message to the UK that "you're either going to get no access, or accept all rules for them".

Quote:
If we don't things don't look good for the EU. They won't get their €40bn, they will suffer through what will happen to their exports to us, and they will have a new upstart competitor sporting lower tax rates for business with whom they cannot compete.
If they don't get the 40 Billion, they will register a default given our failure to pay existing obligations that we owe - ministers have even (begrudgingly) agreed that we owe that money, will pay it and that is that. We also would forfeit rebates (obviously) so the amount we would save in the 40 billion in the short run for the long term damage is preposterous. We will be paying the 40 billion, no matter what.

Quote:
Seriously, if you were Barnier, would you really dig your heels in?
I would make it clear that the UK would either comply with the 4 principles of the EU or get no access to the SM. I would make it very clear that you were either a part of the CU, or not. I would make it clear that you either get friction less trade, or you get to make your own trade deals (you make the call). I would also state that if you do not keep the Irish border open then you get nothing. That breaks the back of the union...hmm I could swear that he has already done all that.

Smart man. I would make it clear to the UK that they are not going to have their cake and eat it.

He seems to have done all that...he is a smart guy. Now, heels. He is a good looking guy so if he was to go head to head with me, on heels - I might just lose. I think he is even slightly taller than me...would he look good in heels? I don't know, but he is clearly a good looking guy.

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Nobody expected her to lose at first. The dreadful truth began to dawn during the election campaign.
Ummm...what??? Nobody expected her to lose? From day 1, that is all I expected...has history not taught you that once a nation nationalizes it has to socialize? When once did a nation ever turn to conservatism once it nationalized anything (rail / money / power and utilities...anything?) The entire principle of nationalism is the total antithesis of conservatism ; conservatism is free market based...you know, the lack of borders, tariffs, borders etc - the very thing that the EU aspires towards. What made you think that nationalists who voted against immigrants would ever do anything but vote for union based parties like the LP? Everyone said that if it wasnn't for Corbyn then Labor would have won...garbage. It was because he is such a socialist that the natural UKIP voters all went back home to their beloved Labor party as there was no need for UKIP anymore.

Nationalism has no basis in conservatism. The two should never ever be conflated.

Quote:
It now looks as though the battle for minds has been won. The Cabinet meeting on Friday will agree the way forward. It will be a deal involving maximum facilitation or a hard Brexit. Basically, that is our choice, and I think finally, the remainers and Brexiteers are beginning to agree that there is no other way forward.
That is only among the cabinet ; at least if nothing else there was not group think in that aspect - the state yet will allow freedom of thought...though not movement.

However though, once they are done bickering the EU will get the final say, and no means no when they reject.
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Old 01-07-2018, 22:53   #62
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-refer...-irish-border/
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Old 01-07-2018, 23:07   #63
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas View Post
It doesn't - but then again leaving the EU in any sense didn't, either. So in that sense, it is fitting that that May continues on with the absurdities.

How does it make sense for the EU to allow a nation outside of the EU to have friction less trade but make their own trade deals?

Make trade deals, fine - but you won't get friction less trade + you will have to accept a hard border in Ireland. You are right, the EU will not punish the UK...it will force the UK to chose how to hurt itself.

On the whole "present 2 plans" aspect I only meant in regards to procedure / process, not the merits. All I was asking is that I wasn't sure if it could be done with a white paper is all - I had no interest in hearing the talking points of the merits, yet in more time. That argument has been made, over and over.

I was just curious as to the procedural hurdles.
So you deliberately create friction out of spite? That's not going to work for the EU, Chloé.

And the UK leaving the bureaucratic and unwieldy EU makes perfect sense, by the way. The real danger for us is staying in, so the sooner we escape, the better.
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Old 01-07-2018, 23:42   #64
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

I wouldn't say "out of spite" but no way does the UK get some preferential deal / some special perk to break the 4 principles on my watch if I was chief negotiator, ever. What on Earth makes you think that the UK should get friction less trade without being a member of the CU?

You don't get the same perks of the CU, without being a member of it. Simple as that.
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Old 01-07-2018, 23:46   #65
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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Quick Summary:-
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Old 02-07-2018, 02:01   #66
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post
The £20 billion figure was a flat calculation across the business board of the amount of time, hence cost, the paperwork etc would require. It ignored efficiencies that could be introduced, or slack time taken up and was another Project Fear ruse.

As I said, OB has laid it out logically and that has not yet been refuted.
Lol, it was recent analysis by HMRC. Project Fear was 2016 not 2018!

---------- Post added at 01:01 ---------- Previous post was at 00:57 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
So you deliberately create friction out of spite? That's not going to work for the EU, Chloé.

And the UK leaving the bureaucratic and unwieldy EU makes perfect sense, by the way. The real danger for us is staying in, so the sooner we escape, the better.
Front page of The Times says we'll most likely go for a Norwegian style deal unless Theresa May is overthrown by hard-line Brexiters. Unicorn-style deals have been ruled out by the EU. Fingers crossed she'll stay in power if this is accurate.
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Old 02-07-2018, 04:02   #67
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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Originally Posted by Gavin78 View Post
I think we should simply go for a hard brexit if we are not closer to a deal by March next year. The EU is playing hard ball seeing how long the UK will hold out. No point extending out to have another year or 2 of nothing and paying more wasted money into the EU for a large bill to pay for leaving as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post
OB makes an excellent point about the £80 billion and how likely it would be that the agreement he suggests will happen, albeit at the last minute.

Remainers usually avoid this part of the discussion.
Ummm...because the government has already admitted that the bill will be paid irregardless of a future trade deal.

We owe it, and we will pay it:

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-mi...antee-11383067

Quote:
A Brexit minister has admitted MPs will be asked to authorise paying up to £39bn to the EU without the guarantee of a future trade deal.
Suella Braverman, a junior minister at the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU), confessed the UK's so-called divorce bill will be confirmed before there is any legal agreement on the future EU-UK relationship.

There is currently no "conditionality" on the payment of the £39bn bill being linked to a trade deal within the UK's draft withdrawal agreement, she added.
It is not a quid pro quo (unless everyone takes a Trumpian approach / there really is an art of some deal) and we are not quite yet a banana Republic so unilaterally, we did the correct thing in agreeing to pay what we already are obligated to do.

Quote:
Asked for a third time, Mrs Braverman admitted that would be the case.
Three separate times she was asked this.

Trade deal or no trade deal, we will be paying this bill. As we owe it.
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Old 02-07-2018, 05:04   #68
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
They will agree a deal, Dave.
Okay so I have read you writing this all over the site and I have to ask what makes you say this? You keep saying "we're going to get a deal / max fac is the way to go, and so on". Repetitively. In maybe 10 posts in the last couple days, plenty in this thread etc...so umm what makes you so sure?

An hour or so ago, Barnier said no to a bespoke deal:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/98...Theresa-May-UK

May is going with the idea of part SM access...before Barnier can look at it, Leo put the kibosh on it:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...s-says-barnier

Even from the UK side, Max Fac is a no go for the EU:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/philip...esa-may-2018-5

The manufacturers association says that it is a no go:

http://www.cityam.com/286524/manufac...s-proposal-non

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...KCN1IT25I?il=0

Why and where are you coming up with all this???

Max Fac is not going to happen, there is no guarantee of any deal and if there is one to be had, it looks likely to be entirely on the EU's terms. Because by the hour they seem to be rejecting every single pie in the sky idea from May and co.

So what makes you so sure?

Quote:
The only reason Gove made the gesture he did in relation to the 'Customs Partnership' idea was that he knew he wouldn't risk his office by doing so.
Which again just shows how weak May is...and she passively sent Truss out, to smack Gove and couldn't do the most basic thing for herself, like sack him. I figure she thinks that she still owes him for beating Boris out of the race, so she could look like the national and international humiliation that she is. Forget Boris but even for her, with friends like Gove...

Quote:
Despite some press reports to the contrary, Theresa May is not wedded to the idea of a customs partnership and she understands that this would prevent us from forging new trade deals. However, it is on the agenda for debate because some remainers within her Cabinet rather like that idea.
See even though the leave team won a referendum, the country is not a dictatorship just yet. There is bound to be the odd bit of, you know...dissent.

That bring said, yet again it is a sign of May's pure worthlessness - CR is a staple of any cabinet yet in this instance, cabinet members are behaving so badly that people who dislike May wish that they could be one, just to humiliate her all the more.

Quote:
The only solutions available are 'maximum facilitation' or 'no deal'. That is the real choice. The EU doesn't want a 'no deal' because the EU has an €80bn annual trade surplus with Britain. So it doesn't really take a lot of brain power to work out the best option both for Britain and the EU.
Why do you keep saying that those are the only two options? Because you said so?

As for the 80 billion surplus I would honestly just be willing to take the hit if I were on the EU side - Britain will obviously suffer more in the long run and come begging back to the EU, which will then offer Britain the chance to return, on much more favorable terms to the EU. Play the long game.

Quote:
Common sense will prevail in the end.
Yeah, I agree on that front. In the mean time we have to go through the charade of leaving, first - along with all other kinds of nonsense.
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Old 02-07-2018, 06:01   #69
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Simply because of the lack of a majority, of course.
A bit different from the hoped landslide she was told was coming her way..
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Old 02-07-2018, 06:48   #70
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

PM must deliver hard Brexit or face revolt, says Rees-Mogg

https://news.sky.com/story/pm-must-d...-mogg-11423428

it all right for the normal people to suffer as you be ok as your super rich eh Jacob
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Old 02-07-2018, 07:55   #71
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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Originally Posted by Dave42 View Post
PM must deliver hard Brexit or face revolt, says Rees-Mogg

https://news.sky.com/story/pm-must-d...-mogg-11423428

it all right for the normal people to suffer as you be ok as your super rich eh Jacob
And this is the man full of hypocrisy as he wants a hard Brexit and then sets up investment funds abroad so he himself can avoid the financial consequences of a hard Brexit..
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Old 02-07-2018, 08:03   #72
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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Originally Posted by denphone View Post
And this is the man full of hypocrisy as he wants a hard Brexit and then sets up investment funds abroad so he himself can avoid the financial consequences of a hard Brexit..
exactly Den he saying screw normal people I gonna make money out of it
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Old 02-07-2018, 08:42   #73
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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Originally Posted by Chloé Palmas View Post
I wouldn't say "out of spite" but no way does the UK get some preferential deal / some special perk to break the 4 principles on my watch if I was chief negotiator, ever. What on Earth makes you think that the UK should get friction less trade without being a member of the CU?

You don't get the same perks of the CU, without being a member of it. Simple as that.
...And yet, the EU want to continue to export to us. They export €80bn more goods to us than we do to them. They are going to have to give ground somehow or face us as new, stiff competitors with low tax rates. Plus, their exporters will face making their staff redundant with reduced profits for them. That's why TM has decided to distribute the proposed White Paper to all EU countries, translated into their own languges.

Barnier & co will start to find themselves under great pressure to back down in the face of this.

---------- Post added at 07:42 ---------- Previous post was at 07:40 ----------

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Originally Posted by denphone View Post
A bit different from the hoped landslide she was told was coming her way..
True, but my point still stands.
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Old 02-07-2018, 09:04   #74
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
They will agree a deal, Dave. The only reason Gove made the gesture he did in relation to the 'Customs Partnership' idea was that he knew he wouldn't risk his office by doing so. Despite some press reports to the contrary, Theresa May is not wedded to the idea of a customs partnership and she understands that this would prevent us from forging new trade deals. However, it is on the agenda for debate because some remainers within her Cabinet rather like that idea.

The only solutions available are 'maximum facilitation' or 'no deal'. That is the real choice. The EU doesn't want a 'no deal' because the EU has an €80bn annual trade surplus with Britain. So it doesn't really take a lot of brain power to work out the best option both for Britain and the EU.

Common sense will prevail in the end.
I think we'll get a deal, out of interest though what will we be selling the day after we leave that we don't currently flog that make these trade deals so attractive

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
Lol, it was recent analysis by HMRC. Project Fear was 2016 not 2018!

---------- Post added at 01:01 ---------- Previous post was at 00:57 ----------


Front page of The Times says we'll most likely go for a Norwegian style deal unless Theresa May is overthrown by hard-line Brexiters. Unicorn-style deals have been ruled out by the EU. Fingers crossed she'll stay in power if this is accurate.
We'll get a better deal than Norway or else we might as well not bother with a deal at all

---------- Post added at 08:04 ---------- Previous post was at 08:03 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave42 View Post
PM must deliver hard Brexit or face revolt, says Rees-Mogg

https://news.sky.com/story/pm-must-d...-mogg-11423428

it all right for the normal people to suffer as you be ok as your super rich eh Jacob
How dare he attempt to call Mrs May out on promises made when he himself was caught telling blatant lies on the telly, no matter how rich he is the man has no honour or class
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Old 02-07-2018, 09:41   #75
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Re: Brexit Discussion (New thread-Follow First Post Rules!)

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Originally Posted by TheDaddy View Post
We'll get a better deal than Norway or else we might as well not bother with a deal at all.
If she does get offered a better deal then the EU will have to offer it to many other countries it has signed trade deals with like Canada as those deals have such a clause in it.
The only way round I could see would be if the UK offered to pay a substantial access fee. This could be offered to the other countries too but they would likely decline it. But I doubt it would go down well with Rees-Mogg etc.

---------- Post added at 08:41 ---------- Previous post was at 08:34 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave42 View Post
PM must deliver hard Brexit or face revolt, says Rees-Mogg

https://news.sky.com/story/pm-must-d...-mogg-11423428

it all right for the normal people to suffer as you be ok as your super rich eh Jacob
Only people keen on this idea are those who have everything and those who have nothing. The average hardworking family gets to pay for it all.
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