Will Scotland Leave the UK? - Page 259

**Chris** · 26-03-2021, 16:33

Oh blessed day. This election really is going to be fun. If the Alba party shaves off a few of the real heidbangers they may get enough votes to deny the SNP a few seats without actually winning any themselves, thanks to the PR-ish system we use here. That would be hilariously counter-productive.

The other possibility is that the Alba Party has such mass appeal that it picks up votes the SNP wouldn’t have, in which case we’re heading for a comfortable nationalist majority in Holyrood, split across Alba and SNP. Goodness only knows how Nicola would bring herself to go into a coalition with Alex if that happened.

I don’t think the latter scenario is very likely with Alex Salmond in charge though. I just don’t see Brand Salmond as being attractive to anyone who doesn’t already vote Nat, especially not while he’s leading a party with such a dog-whistle name.

jfman · 26-03-2021, 16:47

In the first scenario the only impact on the SNP (as they're making it clear they are in this for a pro-independence supermajority) is the potential loss of the 4 "list" seats they hold. With the large number of votes it takes for the SNP to get anyone off the list it's hard to see how they'd (Salmond) not win seats. Could be a worrying time for the Greens though who generally rely on a 5-6% drop off of SNP first votes in the list.

Sephiroth · 26-03-2021, 16:47

It's a great hand grenade tossed into the arena.

**Damien** · 26-03-2021, 17:07

My impression is the party won't gain much traction. I am hoping it does divide the nationalists in the way the unionists are divided though.

**Chris** · 26-03-2021, 17:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

In the first scenario the only impact on the SNP (as they're making it clear they are in this for a pro-independence supermajority) is the potential loss of the 4 "list" seats they hold. With the large number of votes it takes for the SNP to get anyone off the list it's hard to see how they'd (Salmond) not win seats. Could be a worrying time for the Greens though who generally rely on a 5-6% drop off of SNP first votes in the list.

He needs to get nationalist voters to vote SNP for the constituency and Alba for the list in order for that strategy to work. It's tactical voting on a grand scale, using an electoral system that is still not very familiar to Scottish voters. The list system isn't used for Westminster elections, it's not used for the councils and it wasn't used for the Devo/AV/Indy/Eu referendums. The indications are that unless they have a strong niche interest (Greens, for example), people vote for the same party on the constituency and on the list.

Salmond's difficulty is that the SNP is already slagging him off in the press, so the chances of very large numbers of loyal SNP voters giving him their list vote must seem remote. Tactically, the SNP should be leaving him alone and letting him make his case - as you say, the SNP has so many constituency seats that they don't get much out of the list top up anyway. They have nothing to gain by attacking a party that isn't really contesting the same set of seats as they are. I don't think they're going to be able to get past the personality of the person leading the party though.

jfman · 26-03-2021, 17:47

Just thinking aloud what would Salmond’s price be to prop up an SNP minority given his recent troubles?

**Chris** · 26-03-2021, 17:51

I suspect on all issues barring plans for a referendum he'd want to negotiate. I can't see him being interested in a coalition. Issue by issue gives him more power. If he did go for a full coalition the price would have to be a referendum at the very earliest opportunity. I suspect he is thinking a comfortable nationalist majority in Holyrood would give them sufficient moral cover to press ahead without Westminster agreement.

jfman · 26-03-2021, 17:56

I was thinking more around personalities involved in the upper echelons of Government/SNP who he might blame for his strife.

I agree with you on issues tho.

1andrew1 · 26-03-2021, 17:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

It's a great hand grenade tossed into the arena.

Great description.

papa smurf · 26-03-2021, 18:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

Just thinking aloud what would Salmond’s price be to prop up an SNP minority given his recent troubles?

Krankies head on a plate.

jfman · 26-03-2021, 22:26

Apparently 6% of the (second) vote is where the Alba party could start to prove problematic across the regions.

1andrew1 · 26-03-2021, 23:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Krankies head on a plate.

pip08456 · 27-03-2021, 14:01

Krankie's not happy.

Quote:

Nicola Sturgeon on Alex Salmond: "There are significant questions about the appropriateness of his return to public office" - "Alex Salmond is a gambler, it's what he enjoys doing, but this is not the time to gamble with the future of the country"

Source, Sky News.

Mad Max · 27-03-2021, 14:12

Quote:

Nicola Sturgeon on Alex Salmond: "There are significant questions about the appropriateness of his return to public office" - "Alex Salmond is a gambler, it's what he enjoys doing, but this is not the time to gamble with the future of the country"

LMFAO

jfman · 27-03-2021, 14:16

I know everyone loves an FT link here's John Major saying Westminster shouldn't refuse a second referendum and instead make a positive case for the union and a new constitutional settlement.

https://amp.ft.com/content/8d751854-...mpression=true

Article can be accessed by using Google "John Major: Westminster should not refuse Scotland a referendum"