Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Scotland has a larger population than the Republic of Ireland which has been successful

After 60 years of poverty, it’s only really since the 90’s Ireland has had a decent economy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econom...lic_of_Ireland ( I know it Wiki but it will do for this point)


I said Of course Scotland can go it alone, but it could take a generation or two to enjoy spending levels they currently enjoy.

From a Digital economy angle Scotland has no international connectivity. Ireland has lots on new infrastructure and more coming.

Scotland can do it but from a standing start it will take time

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

But that's not to say that Scotland can't be a successful, independent country. There's plenty of small countries in Europe that are successful and some like Slovenia and Slovakia which have split away from other ones and had to build their own institutions and currencies.

Scotland has a larger population than the Republic of Ireland which has been successful but it is spread over a far larger area which increases costs in traditional economic models but in a Covid world, might work to its advantage.

But that's all whimsy.

Where's the £25 billion pumped into Scotland as part of the UK going to come from?

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

But that's all whimsy.

Where's the £25 billion pumped into Scotland as part of the UK going to come from?

Part of that £25 billion is UK level taxes collected from Scotland, and returned to them. It is the £12bn or so that is the missing bit.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

But that's all whimsy.

Where's the £25 billion pumped into Scotland as part of the UK going to come from?

I'm sure a little of jfman's fantasy economics will sort that out

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

But that's not to say that Scotland can't be a successful, independent country. There's plenty of small countries in Europe that are successful and some like Slovenia and Slovakia which have split away from other ones and had to build their own institutions and currencies.

Scotland has a larger population than the Republic of Ireland which has been successful but it is spread over a far larger area which increases costs in traditional economic models but in a Covid world, might work to its advantage.

Slovenia was never that poor relatively in the first place.
Link

Although it comprised only about one-eleventh of Yugoslavia's total population, it was the most productive of the Yugoslav republics, accounting for one-fifth of its GDP and one-third of its exports.[28] Slovenia thus gained independence in 1991 with an already relatively prosperous economy and strong market ties to the West.

Slovakia

Two governments of the "liberal-conservative" Prime Minister Mikuláš Dzurinda (1998–2006) pursued policies of macroeconomic stabilization and market-oriented structural reforms. Nearly the entire economy has now been privatized, and foreign investment has picked up. Economic growth exceeded expectations in the early 2000s, despite recession in key export markets.

...
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Slovakia has increased dramatically. Cheap and skilled labor, a 19% flat tax rate for both businesses and individuals, no dividend taxes, a weak labor code, and a favorable geographical location are Slovakia's main advantages for foreign investors.

Somehow I don't think the SNP or Labour would go with those polices.
The other thing that is highlighted is a favourable geographical location. Scotland is isolated in that sense. There is no near connection with mainland Europe, other than via England.

[Mr K]

I don't want Scotland to leave the UK, but if I was Scottish I'd be sorely tempted.

Brexit and the last General Election, have made it increasingly likely at some point. The UK govt. doesn't represent Scotland, and is openly dismissive. Brussels for us, read London for Scotland.

People wanting to leave a Union (be it the UK or the EU) have the right to do so. Can't have different rules for each, can we? It's their sovereignty if nothing else

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Part of that £25 billion is UK level taxes collected from Scotland, and returned to them. It is the £12bn or so that is the missing bit.

We need a bit of clarity on how that £12bn is being spent - is it central UK services like defence, is it infrastructure-building, is it tuition fees etc.

I'm not pretending that leaving the UK won't impact Scotland's finances and that it may have to raise taxation or cut spending. But for some Scots, a penny on income tax could be worth the feeling of having a government in power that they voted for and not a bunch of remote Brexity Tories whom they have little affinity with.

---------- Post added at 12:12 ---------- Previous post was at 11:59 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

After 60 years of poverty, it’s only really since the 90’s Ireland has had a decent economy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econom...lic_of_Ireland ( I know it Wiki but it will do for this point)


I said Of course Scotland can go it alone, but it could take a generation or two to enjoy spending levels they currently enjoy.

From a Digital economy angle Scotland has no international connectivity. Ireland has lots on new infrastructure and more coming.

Scotland can do it but from a standing start it will take time

Yes, agree with most of this but suspect the uptick would be shorter than two generations.

Originally Posted by jfman

You may laugh - it's the unionists that need to make the compelling case. I note that you cannot. It's the tired old case that the SNP voters disregard reality (increasing) and unionist voters continue to howl at the moon (decreasing)

Nor can Mad Max, and we've attracted some English nationalists into the thread which while I respect their right to an opinion often lack the self awareness to realise that their activity has the opposite effect that they desire.

It's not uncommon, for some, on this forum redirect the conversation from the question asked to the question they would prefer to be asked. This thread is a prime example.

Anyone got a compelling case for the union to twist back the 10-15% of "nationalists" that switched sides in the last decade?

House.

And no, the case is for separatists to make. Everyone in Scotland lives in the United Kingdom, and experiences what that’s like, every day. Separatists assert that an independent Scotland would be different and better. That’s the case to be made. Those who disagree, if they wish to engage with the debate, are in the position of evaluating sep assertions, questioning and rebutting them.

The claim that X participant in the debate has the opposite effect than they intended (where X is English, or a Scottish unionist, or some remote observer) is standard Nat waffle and not worth serious consideration.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Chris

House.

And no, the case is for separatists to make. Everyone in Scotland lives in the United Kingdom, and experiences what that’s like, every day. Separatists assert that an independent Scotland would be different and better. That’s the case to be made. Those who disagree, if they wish to engage with the debate, are in the position of evaluating sep assertions, questioning and rebutting them.

The claim that X participant in the debate has the opposite effect than they intended (where X is English, or a Scottish unionist, or some remote observer) is standard Nat waffle and not worth serious consideration.

Well the people of Scotland keep electing SNP governments, who have a platform of Independence. The thread title question is going to keep coming back as long as they do that.

Things have significantly changed since last independence vote (i.e. Brexit), in which Scotland voted Remain. It's a just another example of their views being ignored.

The party of the UK are the most likely to cause it's break up. They've stabbed NI in the back as well.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

We need a bit of clarity on how that £12bn is being spent - is it central UK services like defence, is it infrastructure-building, is it tuition fees etc.

I'm not pretending that leaving the UK won't impact Scotland's finances and that it may have to raise taxation or cut spending. But for some Scots, a penny on income tax could be worth the feeling of having a government in power that they voted for and not a bunch of remote Brexity Tories whom they have little affinity with.

---------- Post added at 12:12 ---------- Previous post was at 11:59 ----------


Yes, agree with most of this but suspect the uptick would be shorter than two generations.

The £12bn isn't UK wide spending. It is Scotland only spending. Things like Defence spending are taken out of the UK level taxes arising in Scotland.

They already have higher rates of income tax, and of course any increase only directly impact those that pay income tax in the first place.
Link

BandTaxable incomeScottish tax rate Personal Allowance Up to £12,500 0% Starter rate £12,501 to £14,585 19% Basic rate £14,586 to £25,158 20% Intermediate rate £25,159 to £43,430 21% Higher rate £43,431 to £150,000 41% Top rateover £150,00046%

Link

There are projected to be 4.5 million adults in Scotland in 2018-19 and 2.5 million income taxpayers. Around 2 million adults, or 44% of the total number of adults, will not pay income tax as they will earn less than the PA.

Easy for that 44% to agree to income tax rises.
Even excluding capital spending(eg infrastructure) they have a large deficit.
Link

Current Budget Balance 2018-19
This is the difference between total revenue and current expenditure only (i.e. excluding capital investment). The current budget balance:

• Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £7.9 billion (4.4% of GDP).
• Excluding North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £9.4 billion (5.7% of GDP).
• For the UK, was a surplus of £18.1 billion (0.8 per cent of GDP).

---------- Post added at 13:09 ---------- Previous post was at 13:07 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

I don't want Scotland to leave the UK, but if I was Scottish I'd be sorely tempted.

Brexit and the last General Election, have made it increasingly likely at some point. The UK govt. doesn't represent Scotland, and is openly dismissive. Brussels for us, read London for Scotland.

People wanting to leave a Union (be it the UK or the EU) have the right to do so. Can't have different rules for each, can we? It's their sovereignty if nothing else

Where do you draw the line? North Wales doesn't consider that Cardiff represents them. IIRC The Highlands don't consider that Edinburgh represents them. Etc, Etc. They have devolved powers, which is a lot more than England has.


It is unbelievably hypocritical of the Scots to complain that London doesn't represent them, when the EU represents them even less.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Well the people of Scotland keep electing SNP governments, who have a platform of Independence. The thread title question is going to keep coming back as long as they do that.

Things have significantly changed since last independence vote (i.e. Brexit), in which Scotland voted Remain. It's a just another example of their views being ignored.

The party of the UK are the most likely to cause it's break up. They've stabbed NI in the back as well.

When the EU referendum was announced, I thought it unlikely the country would vote for Brexit. It did.

It no longer seems nearly as unlikely that Scotland won't have another referendum and then vote to leave. If the SNP wins a majority next year, it would be hard to refuse a referendum. The UK Government will be tied up with Covid and Brexit, neither of which is going smoothly ("World-beating technology" "Easiest deal ever") so won't be fighting from a position of strength nor will it have much "bandwidth" for a good campaign.

The sooner that non-financial arguments are advanced and won for the Union, the less likely Scotland leaves.

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by nashville

I hope Scotland does not get Independence in my lifetime or ever, I am ashamed of the way they want to divide four nations, We can all help each other and be strong, but going it along really would worry me, There is too much hate in the SNP, we should all be friends,

They stand at the border and tell the English to stay away, and get away with it, I am proud to be Scottish and British and always will be, I hope the silent voters put her in her place and get her and her lot out.

---------- Post added at 14:43 ---------- Previous post was at 14:30 ----------

I certainly would not like to take the chance, The SNP hate the English and that is not a way to run a country on hate, They have Scotland divided in two which is wrong,

Same here, my grandad was a proud Scot, born in Glasgow and grew up in Edinburgh.

During WWII he was engaged to a Scottish lass, but he met my nan (a Londoner) and married her 6 weeks later.

He would be 100% anti SNP.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Same here, my grandad was a proud Scot, born in Glasgow and grew up in Edinburgh.

During WWII he was engaged to a Scottish lass, but he met my nan (a Londoner) and married her 6 weeks later.

He would be 100% anti SDP.

Yes, well Shirley Williams was a dodgy character, so don't blame him !

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Yes, well Shirley Williams was a dodgy character, so don't blame him !

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Well the people of Scotland keep electing SNP governments, who have a platform of Independence. The thread title question is going to keep coming back as long as they do that.

Things have significantly changed since last independence vote (i.e. Brexit), in which Scotland voted Remain. It's a just another example of their views being ignored.

The party of the UK are the most likely to cause it's break up. They've stabbed NI in the back as well.

Voting for the SNP is not necessarily a vote for independence, Mr K. The only real choice lies between the hated Conservatives, the discredited Labour Party, the naive Greens and the SNP. Not exactly a brilliant choice for them, is it?