16-02-2021, 10:37
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#3736
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Virgin Media Employee
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Winchester
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Re: Coronavirus
R becomes less relevant IF people don't get really sick from the virus.
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16-02-2021, 11:53
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#3737
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
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Posts: 14,581
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
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That was also true at the time. Now we have vaccines (and it was far from sure that we would actually see these delivered), the position has changed.
With vaccines being rolled out, delaying the spread of the virus is a viable solution. But without it, delaying was prolonging and risking more mutations along the way.
---------- Post added at 11:53 ---------- Previous post was at 11:45 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul
I hate (really hate) lockdowns, as well as the hype & paranoia around the virus.
However, anyone can see that Easter is never going to be an option to lift all restrictions.
Its only 7 weeks away - I would expect some restrictions to be gone by then, but ALL of them ? Not happening.
You are living in fantasy land if you think that.
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I don’t see it happening either, but it should. Given that the vaccination rollout will have got to the stage it will have by Easter, hospitals will no longer be in danger of being overwhelmed, which was the justification for both lockdowns.
More people will still be advised to get vaccinated, sure, but these are the people who have a far lower risk of hospitalisation. You only have to look at the figures to see that.
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16-02-2021, 12:12
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#3738
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,220
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
But without it, delaying was prolonging and risking more mutations along the way.
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I don't think that's correct, Old Boy.
Everytime a virus reproduces, there's another chance for it to mutate. Locking down, social distancing etc all reduce the number of times the Coronavirus reproduces and therefore diminishes the number of mutations.
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16-02-2021, 12:32
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#3739
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
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Posts: 36,906
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
I don't think that's correct, Old Boy.
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It categorically isn't correct.
Quote:
Everytime a virus reproduces, there's another chance for it to mutate. Locking down, social distancing etc all reduce the number of times the Coronavirus reproduces and therefore diminishes the number of mutations.
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This is, however, correct.
The clue is in the R number. R for Reproduction Rate. Lockdown reduces the R number. The fewer reproduction cycles the virus has, the few opportunities it has to mutate.
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16-02-2021, 12:41
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#3740
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
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Posts: 14,581
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
I don't think that's correct, Old Boy.
Everytime a virus reproduces, there's another chance for it to mutate. Locking down, social distancing etc all reduce the number of times the Coronavirus reproduces and therefore diminishes the number of mutations.
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I understand your point. But time is also a factor. The longer we delay transmissions, the more chance of a highly dangerous mutation materialising.
Anyway, that debate has lost its urgency now that we have a vaccine. The annual boosters can sort out the mutations until it dies off of its own accord, which hopefully, it will.
---------- Post added at 12:41 ---------- Previous post was at 12:39 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
It categorically isn't correct.
This is, however, correct.
The clue is in the R number. R for Reproduction Rate. Lockdown reduces the R number. The fewer reproduction cycles the virus has, the few opportunities it has to mutate.
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My point has always been that at the end of every lockdown, there will be another surge, so the number of times it transmits will ultimately be the same without a vaccine. The fact that this takes place over a longer period is my concern.
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16-02-2021, 12:54
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#3741
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Northampton
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Posts: 7,862
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Re: Coronavirus
Time by itself is not a factor in new variants. It's a matter of chance. Eg The more times you throw a set of dice(ie new infection), the more likely it is to come up all sixes(ie new variant). If instead, you don't throw the dice at all(ie not allow it to infect and reproduce), you can't get a new variant.
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16-02-2021, 13:32
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#3742
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 8,898
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
But time is also a factor
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No it isn't. If that were true, viruses that have been around a long time would be mutating at an amazing rate.
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16-02-2021, 17:00
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#3743
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cf.mega pornstar
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 18,802
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by spiderplant
No it isn't. If that were true, viruses that have been around a long time would be mutating at an amazing rate.
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I think what he's saying with regard to time is getting as many people vaccinated as possible before it mutates into something the vaccine is less effective against, the obvious aim being to stop that new strain getting a foothold amid an already virus riddled population and if that isn't what he meant, it probably should have been!
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16-02-2021, 17:21
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#3744
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
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Re: Coronavirus
Post deleted.
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16-02-2021, 17:29
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#3745
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CF Resident Dog
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 14,253
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Re: Coronavirus
Got my jab next week, surprised it's so quick considering I'm healthy and not too old at 52.
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16-02-2021, 19:40
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#3746
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Leeds
Posts: 1,302
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by SnoopZ
Got my jab next week, surprised it's so quick considering I'm healthy and not too old at 52.
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Good on you, but I'm amazed you're getting done so quickly being presumably in group 9 of first phase.
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16-02-2021, 21:48
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#3747
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 10,047
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Re: Coronavirus
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17-02-2021, 01:05
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#3749
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 10,047
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCoulter
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Correction: As per BBC 10pm news "Told to shield".
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17-02-2021, 01:23
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#3750
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Sad Doig Fan!
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Posts: 11,652
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichardCoulter
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Quote:
Medical records have been searched to identify high-risk patients, based on their combined risk factors.
They are now being sent letters by the NHS informing of them of their new status, which means they are entitled to statutory sick pay, prioritisation for online shopping slots and help collecting medicines.
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Why don't they send vaccine appointment as well?
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