Coronavirus

Originally Posted by jfman

Red herring. Even Sweden is seeing an economic impact, despite taking no meaningful restrictions for the first 6-9 months.

The idea that there’s a lot of businesses out there that would thrive with people voluntarily shielding, many continuing to work from home for their own safety is mistaken. Businesses are in trouble either way.



Went to two local parks this weekend. One where I grew up had more people in it than I’ve seen in my entire life. The other nearby had about 80 folk it it when I did a quick count. I’m pretty confident anyone spending even half an hour to an hour there would have shared the space with 100 different people.

Our local mountain rescue were out again yesterday. Not for the first time since the pandemic began, the rescued parties were met by the polis at the foot of the hill and were handed fines for breaching covid rules. I don’t know which is worse, that they thought trying to climb a snow-capped Scottish mountain without the appropriate kit was a clever idea, or that so many months into this they still thought the lockdown rules didn’t apply to them. And no, they weren’t local (nobody local to here would be stupid enough to try to stroll up it in Hi-Tecs and a cagoule in the middle of winter).

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Red herring. Even Sweden is seeing an economic impact, despite taking no meaningful restrictions for the first 6-9 months.

The idea that there’s a lot of businesses out there that would thrive with people voluntarily shielding, many continuing to work from home for their own safety is mistaken. Businesses are in trouble either way.
.

Is it a “Red-Herring”?

Of course Sweden is seeing an economic impact, the whole globe is. The severity of the impact is what the question is.

https://www.reuters.com/article/swed...-idINL8N2IW3EU

They seem to be doing a bit better than those around them?

It’s also not about businesses “ thriving “ it about businesses and people “surviving”.

We’ll all be living in the city of Bezosigrad within the kingdom Bezosistan, which was formed when all non-grocery retail collapsed.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Is it a “Red-Herring”?

Of course Sweden is seeing an economic impact, the whole globe is. The severity of the impact is what the question is.

https://www.reuters.com/article/swed...-idINL8N2IW3EU

They seem to be doing a bit better than those around them?

It’s also not about businesses “ thriving “ it about businesses and people “surviving”.

We’ll all be living in the city of Bezosigrad within the kingdom Bezosistan, which was formed when all non-grocery retail collapsed.

You're pretty much misunderstanding capitalism if you think that businesses can take a 10-15% loss of revenue and still have a workable model. Fixed costs like rent continue, loans need repaid, business rates etc. Letting a couple of staff go and using a bit less gas and leccy isn't going to balance the books.

If we want to save retail we need to reform the tax system. Not let the pandemic go.

Letting the pandemic go with increased risks of new variants and greater transmission will only realise your nightmare of Bezos dominating further. If I'm taking a risk leaving the house it's going to be to go to the pub, not shopping.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

You're pretty much misunderstanding capitalism if you think that businesses can take a 10-15% loss of revenue and still have a workable model. Fixed costs like rent continue, loans need repaid, business rates etc. Letting a couple of staff go and using a bit less gas and leccy isn't going to balance the books.

If we want to save retail we need to reform the tax system. Not let the pandemic go.

Letting the pandemic go with increased risks of new variants and greater transmission will only realise your nightmare of Bezos dominating further. If I'm taking a risk leaving the house it's going to be to go to the pub, not shopping.

You’re mis-understanding the entrepreneurial skill and adaptability of the small/ medium businesses. 10-15% they can handle, 60-80-100% they can’t. You’re right about Tax/ business rates etc, that all needs to be addressed. But the small guys need footfall.

[jfman]

Skill and adaptability

Comedy gold. Either way it's not happening, ever. We've gone all in on the Oxford vaccine and Boris is committed to a lockdown to Easter.

Could see summer type easing similar to last year with the vaccine rollout ramping up significantly in the same time.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Skill and adaptability

Comedy gold.

Glad to see you find it funny and take pleasure in others losing their businesses and homes because they not even been given a chance to operate.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Glad to see you find it funny and take pleasure in others losing their businesses and homes because they not even been given a chance to operate.

I take no such pleasure at all, I'm sure most will read your post as a plain misrepresentation of my stance which has been consistent throughout.

There's so much entrepreneurial spirit they are the ones who were pleading for 80% furlough not 67%. Bear in mind non-essential retail remained open in tier 3 - I don't see many High Street success stories from that period. Amazon on the other hand...

I believe he’s laughing at your comment, not small businesses

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I believe he’s laughing at your comment, not small businesses

If so many businesses could take 10-15% hits on their sales someone with just as much entrepreneurial spirit would enter the market and reduce the price skimming off percentages from each and every small business in their field and becoming that profitable 85% model.

That’s literally how supply and demand works in competitive markets.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I believe he’s laughing at your comment, not small businesses

I’m very aware of that Sherlock......but as JFman is the master of putting his words into others mouths I thought I’d do the same

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I’m very aware of that Sherlock......but as JFman is the master of putting his words into others mouths I thought I’d do the same

I don't think I'm as transparent to be rumbled within two posts though.

Originally Posted by jfman

I don't think I'm as transparent to be rumbled within two posts though.

Indeed, it only takes one.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

If so many businesses could take 10-15% hits on their sales someone with just as much entrepreneurial spirit would enter the market and reduce the price skimming off percentages from each and every small business in their field and becoming that profitable 85% model.

That’s literally how supply and demand works in competitive markets.

No one was saying they can take that kind of hit for a sustained period of several years.

But in between lockdowns when there was trading with restrictions, I witnessed lots of innovation. The pandemic was predicted to last a year or two ( based on initial vaccine predictions).

My point being that by using their savings, taking grants, loans, hopefully help with tax/rates etc with reduced revenue many businesses could probably just about get through, but no revenue at all? That’s a much tougher prospect.

---------- Post added at 19:51 ---------- Previous post was at 19:50 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

I don't think I'm as transparent to be rumbled within two posts though.

Rumbled years ago mate.

I find the messaging from the Government about when we can expect this lockdown to end a bit weird.

The lockdown looks like it's working. The cases have been trending downwards (deaths, a lagging indicator, will still increase for a week or so) as have the predictions of the 'R' number and the ONS projections of how many people are infected.

In addition to the lockdown working the vaccinations are still speeding along with nearly 500,000 people getting a vaccinated a day.

By March we should see far fewer cases and a drop off in hospitalisations and deaths. That will also come at a time when the majority of the top four groups classified as most at risk have been vaccinated.

I understand they've been caught out before with optimistic projections/assumptions that backfired so I fully understand the reluctance to commit to a hard date but why not share with us the metrics they'll use to end this. Even rough ones.

Are we talking a reduction in cases and the R Number to the same level as the spring? Or are we talking about all four at risk groups being vaccinated + some % of what remains? A bit of both?

What is it?

[jfman]

I suspect the plan is to hold onto lockdown as long as possible (Easter, potentially later) at the same time as ramping up vaccination. I think they want this to be the last one - better to do this one for 4 months than for 3 and then end up having to increase restrictions all over again.

They probably want to get the most vulnerable groups onto their second doses.

While there's optimism about the vaccine against other variants I think they want to see that in the real world, which in lockdown conditions could take a while to become clear.