Coronavirus (OLD)

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by denphone

There is no doubt some are ignoring the rules as the Police has said the roads are definitely busier down here in our city since Monday.

That isn't proof of them ignoring the rules. With the weather having turned, maybe they are making essential trips by driving instead of walking or cycling.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Pierre

you've never not been allowed to buy alcohol?

No, but the College of Policing had to clarify the guidance issues to the police as some forces were getting over zealous.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It is a matter of fact that Covid-19 is a coronavirus, like MERS and SARS were, and everyone knows that coronavirus is a type of influenza.

I am not saying it's 'only' flu, I'm saying it's a type of flu. Nobody is questioning that it has a very speedy infection rate and that currently there is no vaccine.

All those deaths are truly disgusting - who would disagree? What I am saying is that until an effective vaccine is found, we cannot prevent these deaths from happening.

You've only got to look at our care homes to see the futility of the lockdown.

You may be right in saying there is broad support for the lockdown, but the cracks are appearing and most do not expect this to continue for more than another three weeks or so. The position will look rather different at the end of that time, and once company after company goes bankrupt, sending people to the unemployment register, there will be a sea change of opinion.

Despite everything you claim, jfman, the government cannot afford to keep paying the nation's wages and they have pretty well acknowledged that. Faced with not having any money coming in, people will soon want to be getting back to work.

Of course, in your vision of the near future, they will just shrug their shoulders and say "All right, then".

Crazy.

You keep saying that - it isn’t true.

Flu is a Orthomyxovirus, while the others, such as some of the the common cold viruses*, SARS, and MERS are all Coronaviruses - coronavirus is the family of viruses, the others are types of coronavirus; Flu is a different phylum from the others**.

*other types of common cold are caused by rhinoviruses.

**I only know this because my brother-in-law is a Senior Research VP for a large US Biosimilars corporation, who has also worked in Pharma research for Pfizer, Teva, and others, and he corrected my assumption (which was somewhat like yours, except I thought they were all coronaviruses)

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

That isn't proof of them ignoring the rules. With the weather having turned, maybe they are making essential trips by driving instead of walking or cycling.

The roads have got busier here too, and that was before today's bad weather.

Originally Posted by spiderplant

That isn't proof of them ignoring the rules. With the weather having turned, maybe they are making essential trips by driving instead of walking or cycling.

It’s also probably more people going back to work in "essential roles" after self-isolating for 14 days- this is what is happening at my wife’s work.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Well, no, simple mathematics tells us you're completely wrong.


lets say over an 18 month period of time with no lockdown in place there is an average death rate of 1000 per month giving us a total deaths count of 18,000

Now, lets say in 18 month period there is a three one month periods of lockdown which changes the death rate to 500 deaths per month. the months out of lock down the death rate stays as above at the initial example. 1000 per month. Do the maths?

Now, start using the something near the figures that are being presented to us on a daily basis and just think about how many lives are being saved over that time period.

We are going to be in and out of some sort of lockdown until if and when a successful vaccine.

Oh, and with regards to your earlier post about older people not being prepared to endure lockdown. Quite simply. Tough s**t, either do it, or face criminal proceedings.

Exactly how many lockdowns do you expect?!!

Sorry, mate, but the public won't wear it. Unless you are going to introduce martial law, this is unenforceable.

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/126675...ns-experts-say

Tests in recovered patients in S. Korea found false positives, not reinfections, experts say

SEOUL — South Korea’s infectious disease experts said Thursday that dead virus fragments were the likely cause of over 260 people here testing positive again for the novel coronavirus days and even weeks after marking full recoveries.

Oh Myoung-don, who leads the central clinical committee for emerging disease control, said the committee members found little reason to believe that those cases could be COVID-19 reinfections or reactivations, which would have made global efforts to contain the virus much more daunting.

The tests detected the ribonucleic acid of the dead virus,” said Oh, a Seoul National University hospital doctor, at a press conference Thursday held at the National Medical Center.

He went on to explain that in PCR tests, or polymerase chain reaction tests, used for COVID-19 diagnosis, genetic materials of the virus amplify during testing, whether it is from a live virus or just from fragments of dead virus cells that can take months to clear from recovered patients.

The PCR tests cannot distinguish whether the virus is alive or dead, he added, and this can lead to false positives.

“PCR testing that amplifies genetics of the virus is used in Korea to test COVID-19, and relapse cases are due to technical limits of the PCR testing.”

---------- Post added at 19:30 ---------- Previous post was at 19:27 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Exactly how many lockdowns do you expect?!!

Sorry, mate, but the public won't wear it. Unless you are going to introduce martial law, this is unenforceable.

I disagree - I believe the majority will understand.

[Pierre]

This video makes some interesting observations, but I do note there are comments that give it a bit of a roasting. So I am not particularly endorsing it but leaving it here for your own judgements

https://youtu.be/fCOkEXsfPoQ

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Exactly how many lockdowns do you expect?!!

Sorry, mate, but the public won't wear it. Unless you are going to introduce martial law, this is unenforceable.

More if we mess up the first one.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Exactly how many lockdowns do you expect?!!

Sorry, mate, but the public won't wear it. Unless you are going to introduce martial law, this is unenforceable.

Will the public wear themselves or their loved ones dying?

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Exactly how many lockdowns do you expect?!!

Sorry, mate, but the public won't wear it. Unless you are going to introduce martial law, this is unenforceable.

There will be multiple dependant on the R0 number. my own personal pure guess? three to four over the next six to twelve months.

Anyone thinking that there would be just one lockdown is just plain delusional.

Martial law may well be whats coming

Also, as you haven't argued against the maths, Can we assume that you now understand that over a given period of time that lockdowns do in fact save some lives?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Will the public wear themselves or their loved ones dying?

To be fair to Old Boy and the grief he’s been getting. He does have a point.

Many of our population that are classed as vulnerable will have to stay in lockdown for their own safety for potentially a long time, possibly a very long time.

And members of their family and carers will have to be very precise in how they are around them.

But we will have to come out of these restrictions at some time, preferably before September if possible. I say restrictions because we are not in “lockdown” or anything like “lockdown”. We have been Asked to restrict our movements when and wherever possible, keep socially distancing and be sensible.

As long as we c@n keep the infection rate static and not overwhelm the NHS we can start opening up certain things. It will have to strictly monitored and managed, but for example if you can manage socially distancing and supermarket shopping, you can do it for any shop.

Cafes, restaurants and bars, will be an issue. Not impossible, but bars, especially when people have had a few will be tricky.

But I think throughout June, July & August we will see some relaxing of restrictions.

Oh and if your wondering why I chose September. I am a parent and a football fan.

I don’t see kids going back until the start of the new school year, and I would love the new season to start as normal. This season should be scrapped and expunged from the record books - Nil Satis Nisi Optimum.

[Arthurgray50@blu]

Ever since this virus started. We have been given 'nonsense' advice by the government. The general public are fed stuff from flowcharts, and 'we have just reached the peak' as they keep saying.

Each day when l am not working, enforcing the six feet rule. Everyone l see each day, is abiding by this rule. Yes, there is more traffic on the road, as people are returning to work.

People have to go back to work to live.

The government keep finding these 'pots of gold' to hand out a million here, million there. What we need is a government to treat us like adults and not kids.

Many shops are now starting to open. Mental Health has now gone through the roof. Domestic violence has gone up.
Due to this lockdown, we are being told to stay at home, and look after the NHS.

NHS staff are magical, but they need tp be protected properly.

As far as l am aware Sweden has the virus, but NO lockdown as they consider this virus as bad flu - which we have every year.

But this is the stink in the tail - There will NOT be a vaccine for at least 18 months. So therefore, how long is the lockdown going to run for.

Companies WILL go bust. Next year our taxes WILL go up to pay for this virus.

The government have to be honest and tell us when the lockdown will be released. And not keep coming out with the same stuff.


It is claimed that this virus was started in meat markets in Muhan. Well, the markets have reopened, and they don't scare if the virus starts up again.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

To be fair to Old Boy and the grief he’s been getting. He does have a point.

Many of our population that are classed as vulnerable will have to stay in lockdown for their own safety for potentially a long time, possibly a very long time.

And members of their family and carers will have to be very precise in how they are around them.

But we will have to come out of these restrictions at some time, preferably before September if possible. I say restrictions because we are not in “lockdown” or anything like “lockdown”. We have been Asked to restrict our movements when and wherever possible, keep socially distancing and be sensible.

As long as we c@n keep the infection rate static and not overwhelm the NHS we can start opening up certain things. It will have to strictly monitored and managed, but for example if you can manage socially distancing and supermarket shopping, you can do it for any shop.

Cafes, restaurants and bars, will be an issue. Not impossible, but bars, especially when people have had a few will be tricky.

But I think throughout June, July & August we will see some relaxing of restrictions.

Oh and if your wondering why I chose September. I am a parent and a football fan.

I don’t see kids going back until the start of the new school year, and I would love the new season to start as normal. This season should be scrapped and expunged from the record books - Nil Satis Nisi Optimum.

Old Boy would get far less grief if he didn't stumble incoherently from one feeble excuse to open up the economy to another on an almost hourly basis.

This country survived two World Wars yet Old Boy tells us it can't stand a few months sitting in the house, getting out occasionally, and biding our time until the circumstances are right to gradually release the restrictions in place?

The economic arguments are hollow. As I've pointed out the role of Central Banks and Government is to stand behind economies in crises. The money it uses to support people now - furloughed staff, self employed, small business owners, etc. - pays rents, mortgages, pays bills and generally buys essentials. All these people want to do is get to the end of lockdown and be in the same position as before. We are the fifth largest economy in the world and that should easily be achievable and maintain a position where people have jobs to return to. This gets stability in the long run.

Make a mess of the current position - and give up the gains we have made to date - and consumer confidence remains low. Businesses will be reluctant to invest in anything for fear that we return to a further lockdown in deadly second or third waves of Coronavirus. Consumers will be wanting to save in case they have to cover a few months of lost earnings in future rather than spend.

The first tranche of restrictions could realistically be released in as little as 4 to 6 weeks. A gradual process that will take months, undoubtedly. However getting it right now yields dividends then. Getting it wrong now and we are in for months/years of turmoil.

Originally Posted by Pierre

This video makes some interesting observations, but I do note there are comments that give it a bit of a roasting. So I am not particularly endorsing it but leaving it here for your own judgements

https://youtu.be/fCOkEXsfPoQ

Well, since the first 40 comments I read actively disagreed with him, with good reasoned comments (cherry picking data, ignoring actions that affect outcomes, plucking figures from thin air), it seems it’s a bit more than "there are comments that give it a bit of a roasting" - that’s like saying the inhabitants of Hiroshima got a bit of sunburn...

Also, hard to take credibly when he has this under the video

Explaining why locking down too early can make problems worse via the medium of freehand-drawn powerpoint shapes. At 1am. Drunk.