Coronavirus

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

They're all spoof graphs these days.

Are the increasing numbers of hospital admissions and deaths a spoof as well?

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Are the increasing numbers of hospital admissions and deaths a spoof as well?

Gather some figures for me to look at and i'll give it my full attention,nice to see you're not using that emoji.

[1andrew1]

Great Tweet thread from Ed Conway "Numbers guy" of Sky News. Includes the following:

Just yday BoE announced it was printing £150bn of cash. This is a MASSIVE deal, yet there was little shock in markets. Part of the explanation: BoE was v transparent abt what it was doing, so no surprises. Agree with them or not, at least everyone could see their workings.

Now imagine BoE did said: "We're printing money because the economy is doing worse than our worst-case scenario," but then refused to publish the worst-case scenario. There would be uproar. Markets wld be all over the place as people speculated what on earth was going on.

Well, that's precisely what @10DowningStreet has done with the English lockdown. Recall PM press conference on sat. His explanation for this lockdown? "The virus is spreading even faster than the reasonable worst case scenario of our scientific advisers"

But here's the thing: Downing St had NEVER PUBLISHED THE RELEVANT REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO (RWC). As far as I can see they still haven't. Indeed, the latest RWC on the Sage site dates back from May. This is an extraordinary lack of transparency.

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/stat...19551335403520

[jfman]

Ed's going down the herd immunity route. Been on the cards for a while sad to see him join those howling at the moon.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

Ed's going down the herd immunity route. Been on the cards for a while sad to see him join those howling at the moon.

I don't believe he is. He's just critical of the way that data is not being as openly shared as it might.

The natural herd immunity tribe is declining, I believe.

[jfman]

I could be wrong, but his 'data driven' analysis has concerned me about what way he falls for a while now.

As the resident economist I should have opined on his comment about £150bn being injected into the economy. It isn't.

All this money is trying to cling onto is the status quo. There's no need for the markets to react to the status quo. This money costs virtually zero - interest rates are at an all time low. Nobody expects the UK to ever repay it's debts - whether it's £2trn or £4trn is really neither here nor there when interest rates are so low.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The natural herd immunity tribe is declining, I believe.

Natural herd immunity only works if you let nature 'have at it', i.e. just get on with life and let people catch it. Since thats clearly not going to happen, its pointless anyone going on about it. Instead we are left with these futile attempts to fight nature, which unsurprisingly dont do well, unless we sacrifice everything on the lockdown alter.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Paul

Natural herd immunity only works if you let nature 'have at it', i.e. just get on with life and let people catch it. Since thats clearly not going to happen, its pointless anyone going on about it. Instead we are left with these futile attempts to fight nature, which unsurprisingly dont do well, unless we sacrifice everything on the lockdown alter.

The NHS can only just cope as it is - it couldn't cope with an attempt at natural herd immunity, even if such a concept was proven. Hence advocates have been dialling down.
The objctive of lockdowns is to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed and in this respect they work. They're not an alternative to herd immunity derived from a proportion of the population being successfully vaccinated.

[tweetiepooh]

Here is an interesting comment on an interesting article about the effects on the poor of CV19 lockdowns.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucele...h=7ee3b380158c

In summary David Nabarro - special envoy WHO commented on the negative affects of lockdowns on the world poor that could lead to a "doubling of world poverty by next year". This was then used to say the WHO says that lockdowns are bad BUT what was really said was the lockdowns should not be the "primary mean" of controlling spread.

It does highlight that nations that have been more successful such as New Zealand (hard lockdown, early - but doesn't also mention low population and geographic isolation that made that easier/shorter) and Tiawan/South Korea with bigger testing and isolation rules (plus more general mask wearing).

It's a good read what I've seen of it and shows how news/comments (both ways) can be taken out of context to support whatever view you want.

Wales came out of their circuit breaker lockdown, in much worse shape than what they went in. Lockdowns don’t work, just wreck the economy and eat in to people’s liberties. Meanwhile suicides are up tenfold.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Mick

Wales came out of their circuit breaker lockdown, in much worse shape than what they went in. Lockdowns don’t work, just wreck the economy and eat in to people’s liberties. Meanwhile suicides are up tenfold.

They won't know for weeks whether its had any effect or not. There's a delayed effect.

Pfizer’s vaccine looks ready to go, with immunity delivered to 90% of recipients.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

2 jabs are required, 3 weeks apart, with immunity established 1 week after the 2nd dose. 43,000 test subjects, no safety concerns raised.

50 million doses by the end of the year, around 1.3bn doses to be produced by the end of 2021.

U.K. gov already has a deal to buy 30 million doses of this particular vaccine.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Chris

Pfizer’s vaccine looks ready to go, with immunity delivered to 90% of recipients.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

You know the drill drop your pants you'll only feel a little ....................

Originally Posted by Chris

Pfizer’s vaccine looks ready to go, with immunity delivered to 90% of recipients.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54873105

2 jabs are required, 3 weeks apart, with immunity established 1 week after the 2nd dose. 43,000 test subjects, no safety concerns raised.

50 million doses by the end of the year, around 1.3bn doses to be produced by the end of 2021.

U.K. gov already has a deal to buy 30 million doses of this particular vaccine.

I’ll still want to know the side effects of said drug, if any contraindications exist with the medications that I take daily, before that shit gets pumped in to my veins.

[jfman]

Donald Trump has tweeted to welcome the GREAT NEWS of the imminent vaccine.