Coronavirus - Page 49

**Hugh** · 16-12-2021, 10:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by joglynne

Today's ZOE video by Professor Tim Spector of King's College London. Worth a watch if you want see, what I consider to be a considered analysis on, what's happening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF79-XprdfU

This is another (similar) take on that - a pre-release paper on Omicron (my brother in law sent it to me, as he subscribes to it (being in the "business")).

https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/ha...ceptor-binding

I found this bit near the end encouraging

Quote:

We often seem to fall into simple, binary thinking when considering complicated problems. Left or right-wing politics. Vaccinated or unvaccinated selecting for newly evolved viruses. This can limit our ability to make sense out of the world. But what if what is going on with Omicron is not so much driven by antibodies directed against the Spike RBD, but by selection for shifting the region of the respiratory tract that it infects? Or perhaps, this variant has bounced back and forth between humans and other species, and in so doing it has accumulated mutations which have exploited subtle differences in the ACE2 receptor.

One thing that has always fascinated me about viral evolution (or any evolution, for that matter) is the existence of evolutionary islands. Regions of genetic optimization that may not be the best solution, but which might require genetic changes which are less adaptive for a given environment before they are able to reach a new genetic “island” that is more optimal. Once a population (swarm) of viruses are able to bridge the evolutionary barriers to reach a new “island”, then they have a sort of evolutionary burst that can result in many changes within a short period of time as they evolve to adapt to the new optimum of that “island”. Perhaps what we are seeing with Omicron is the genetic consequence of one of these evolutionary bursts.

This is why this new finding from a team at Hong Kong University is so significant. Because it indicates that what may be most important about Omicron may not be the ability to evade vaccine-induced immunity, but that it has shifted its preferred tissue target for infection and replication to the upper airway instead of deep lung. That could explain why it is more infectious, replicates to higher levels, and yet causes less severe disease.

Let’s hope that is our best gift this Christmas.

1andrew1 · 16-12-2021, 11:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Any evidence to support that’s the case in this instance ?

Much as I dislike Macron, the fishing dispute with the UK has ended and this looks a genuine public health move. France is a key stakeholder in Eurostar so will take a hit from this move.

tweetiepooh · 16-12-2021, 11:13

Like much in politics a lot of it is perception of the public. He's done something, may not work, may get reversed, but he's done something.

1andrew1 · 16-12-2021, 11:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

This is another (similar) take on that - a pre-release paper on Omicron (my brother in law sent it to me, as he subscribes to it (being in the "business")).

https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/ha...ceptor-binding

I found this bit near the end encouraging

Interesting, thank you.

**Hugh** · 16-12-2021, 11:32

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59683343

Quote:

Queen cancels pre-Christmas family lunch, with sources suggesting it could have put too many people's Christmas arrangements at risk

jfman · 16-12-2021, 12:54

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-59673271

There’s the propaganda wing of the British state preparing everyone for an extended school holiday.

joglynne · 16-12-2021, 13:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh
This is another (similar) take on that - a pre-release paper on Omicron (my brother in law sent it to me, as he subscribes to it (being in the "business")).

https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/ha...ceptor-binding

I found this bit near the end encouraging

I too found the last bit encouraging giving me some hope especially for Christmas . Hopefully this will make covid easier to treat and will stave off as many people having to be admitted to ICU and ventilated in hospital.

Quote:

...... This is why this new finding from a team at Hong Kong University is so significant. Because it indicates that what may be most important about Omicron may not be the ability to evade vaccine-induced immunity, but that it has shifted its preferred tissue target for infection and replication to the upper airway instead of deep lung. That could explain why it is more infectious, replicates to higher levels, and yet causes less severe disease.

nffc · 16-12-2021, 13:43

Pop the France travel ban the other way round (and for a second negating the probability they already have an Omicron infection in their country which is just a few days behind ours).

How many people here would be suggesting we ban non-essential travel to and from France when
- there is a high incidence of a new highly infectious strain of the pandemic into which the facts of how it is different is not fully yet known
- the country's CMO and PM were on the TV the night before - and on previous occasions - talking up how serious the situation really is
- the country reached a record number of infections despite a high vaccination level (both 2nd and 3rd doses)
Would we be wanting this in our country? I suspect a fair amount of those who support restrictions would indeed be supporting such travel restrictions.

I don't agree with doing so, because the last month has shown you can't really stop it with travel restrictions, and it doesn't slow it down much either (in fact, it's not exactly clear which restrictions would work any more, you have to look at the countries who have gone further into lockdowns), now we have vaccines that's a game changer anyway - most people with Covid recover, it is mainly those with other issues who are badly affected, a fair amount don't even get symptoms, if that HK study is an indication it absolutely will lead to milder disease. Protect the vulnerable, get vaccinated, it will eventually pass. A high transmissible virus will presumably pass quicker, if it's allowed to. Not saying doing nothing is really viable until we know what that will mean, but, getting otherwise healthy people infected would mean you'd need some serious game changer in a new variant to reverse that immunity.

mrmistoffelees · 16-12-2021, 16:09

Israel have put the U.K. on their red list for travel.

Sephiroth · 16-12-2021, 16:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Israel have put the U.K. on their red list for travel.

Damn. That's buggered up Christmas for quite a few.

**Paul** · 16-12-2021, 17:33

Enough of this Macron nonsense, multiple posts removed, back to the actual topic.

mrmistoffelees · 16-12-2021, 18:35

Some information released about the first death with omicron

70 yrs old
No underlying health issues
Non drinker
Non smoker
Not vaccinated

Mad Max · 16-12-2021, 18:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Some information released about the first death with omicron

70 yrs old
No underlying health issues
Non drinker
Non smoker
Not vaccinated

Tells you a lot.

Taf · 16-12-2021, 18:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf

The missus has her second eye op on 5th January next year.

The letter says she has to go for a PCR test on 1st Jan, then the entire household MUST self-isolate at home from that same morning until after she returns home on the 5th Jan. "THE ENTIRE HOUSEHOLD SHOULD NOT GO TO WORK, OR MEET WITH PEOPLE OUTSIDE THE HOME".

It also says that if her PCR is positive, or if anyone in the home tests positive before her op, the entire household must self-isolate for 10 days. The op will then be rescheduled for a later date.

A lady from the hospital called today.

"You were told to isolate as a household from 1st January, after the patient has been to the local testing centre for a PCR test that same day.

This has now been modified under new advice. The entire household must isolate from 8am on 21st December, until 2 days after the patient's hospital appointment on 5th January. Do not go to work, do not leave your home, do not accept visitors into your home".

I explained that she has an urgent cardiac scan on 21st December.

"I shall consult with my seniors, and get back to you tomorrow morning".

18 day's of isolation, I'd better get some shopping done, as there are no home delivery slots anytime before mid January.

Itshim · 16-12-2021, 18:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Taf

A lady from the hospital called today.

"You were told to isolate as a household from 1st January, after the patient has been to the local testing centre for a PCR test that same day.

This has now been modified under new advice. The entire household must isolate from 8am on 21st December, until 2 days after the patient's hospital appointment on 5th January. Do not go to work, do not leave your home, do not accept visitors into your home".

I explained that she has an urgent cardiac scan on 21st December.

"I shall consult with my seniors, and get back to you tomorrow morning".

18 day's of isolation, I'd better get some shopping done, as there are no home delivery slots anytime before mid January.

Strange have a op appointment 30th December no such message . Guess you are going to uhw ?