Coronavirus (OLD)

[downquark1]

Well the much criticised herd immunity plan was designed to save the most lives in the long run if certain assumptions about the virus held.

The worst decision has been the care home ordeal, but this has been largely consistent with other nations and may have been simply the result of there being no alternatives, but I have no insight in carehome organisation.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by ianch99

There is also a opposite need amongst some to apologise for the Government at all and every opportunity. No decision even one clearly resulting in the deaths of thousands should be questioned at a point when further decisions made by the same people and the same process could lead to even more deaths. A need I am sure has more to do with a political alignment to current Government than a need to establish an objective understanding of the facts.

'Wait until all the decisions, good and bad, have been made and only then ask if they were the right decisions at the time" - better still, question the decisions as they are being made and make sure that you have the best people in charge of the decision making process when the next big decision needs to be made.

It’d also be much easier to be complementary about the Government if they had actually been seen to take appropriate actions at the right time. We were told we were “two weeks behind Italy” yet no effort seemed to be made to learn from this - instead we ran the risk that we’d be different and unsurprisingly we were not.

I’ve been hugely complimentary about the furlough scheme, abandoning herd immunity and now quarantining arrivals. Now if we got a decent test, trace, isolate scheme on the go we might get to where we should have been in early April.

There’s one side of this debate lacking objectivity and it’s those that can’t accept there’s any error at all. Something that would be beyond parody in North Korea given the death/infection count.

I used to think folk viewed politics too much like supporting a football team, but even supporters of football teams are objective enough to see when their own team plays badly.

What people don’t seem to appreciate is that until we get these things right we are going to be stuck in some varying degree of lockdown/economic restrictions and social distancing and huge sections of the economy either closed or not commercially viable.

Instead some appear to be getting bogged down that this is down to pure chance, measures that aren’t 100% aren’t effective or that the virus simply will go away by itself. This is the same guesswork as “it’s just the flu”; “cultural differences”; “multigenerational households”; “the virus will die out in the summer”.

Unfortunately for some their ideology is against the state doing anything - even if it is co-ordinating a national effort to stem a pandemic and protect the economy. Something the private sector simply couldn’t do because there is no profit in it. In times of global crisis you’d think it’d be important to have perspective on these things.

There’s no return to normal because the Government eases restrictions. People need to be confident that they can go about their day to day lives and we won’t have a second wave. Otherwise those on furlough now will be saving “just in case”, those concerned about the health risk will stay home more. All of this affects economic demand. That means people need to be confident that the prevalence of the virus is low, people who catch it are quickly identified, isolated and then their contacts isolated and tested quickly.

[1andrew1]

YouGov has asked people to assess how their governments have handled the Crisis.
The UK is sadly in last place, a position it shares with Mexico.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1269931042728796161

Only 41% of Britons say the government is managing the outbreak well, versus 56% who say it is mishandling it. This gives a net score of -15, down from -6 the week previously.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/internat...article_8_june

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

The excess deaths figures won't lie in the long run.

That's right, in the long run we can compare the number of deaths here with those of other countries.

And when I say 'compare', I mean on a like for like basis. When Spain and Italy provide their figures on the number of deaths, it appears they are not including deaths in care homes and in the community. So, no wonder our figures look bad in comparison.

---------- Post added at 19:07 ---------- Previous post was at 19:04 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

New Zealand ends all restrictions except overseas arrivals having reduced the number of infections to zero.

Their PM sensibly warns to not be complacent and remain vigilant - there will be more cases.

Social distancing in NZ is quite easy between farms! Their relatively low population levels make controls on the virus a lot easier than over here.

Originally Posted by downquark1

Well the much criticised herd immunity plan was designed to save the most lives in the long run if certain assumptions about the virus held.

The worst decision has been the care home ordeal, but this has been largely consistent with other nations and may have been simply the result of there being no alternatives, but I have no insight in carehome organisation.

I think the challenge with care homes is that they are many and diverse, from small groups of care homes to large organisations, as well as local council provision.

They have various funding levels and organisational maturity - the home my mum-in-law is in (part of an organisation of 56 care homes and 4 independent living centres) is well-funded* and well managed (they had a winter influenza plan which they adapted for COVID-19), had plentiful stocks of PPE, and are very well-staffed (and the staff are experienced and motivated (well, all the ones I have met are)) - not all care homes are this fortunate or well-managed.

*fees are over £1k per week

---------- Post added at 19:15 ---------- Previous post was at 19:13 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That's right, in the long run we can compare the number of deaths here with those of other countries.

And when I say 'compare', I mean on a like for like basis. When Spain and Italy provide their figures on the number of deaths, it appears they are not including deaths in care homes and in the community. So, no wonder our figures look bad in comparison.

---------- Post added at 19:07 ---------- Previous post was at 19:04 ----------



Social distancing in NZ is quite easy between farms!. Their relatively low population levels make controls on the virus a lot easier than over here.

Not been to Auckland (1.6 million) or Wellington (400k), then?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Not been to Auckland (1.6 million) or Wellington (400k), then?

Compare the number of larger population centres in NZ with the number of cities and large towns in the UK.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That's right, in the long run we can compare the number of deaths here with those of other countries.

And when I say 'compare', I mean on a like for like basis. When Spain and Italy provide their figures on the number of deaths, it appears they are not including deaths in care homes and in the community. So, no wonder our figures look bad in comparison.[COLOR="Silver"]

Hang on I thought you were in the “they were all dying anyway” camp - excess deaths will be zero over say, the next 12 months? Or have you abandoned that one too.

Do Italy have as many in care homes I thought they were all multigenerational households?

Or is it simply the case you are moving the goalposts (once again) to avoid facing up to the inevitable.

Social distancing in NZ is quite easy between farms! Their relatively low population levels make controls on the virus a lot easier than over here.

Ah, back to things being too hard for us, the fifth richest country in the world.

---------- Post added at 19:34 ---------- Previous post was at 19:30 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Compare the number of larger population centres in NZ with the number of cities and large towns in the UK.

The thing is with an effective test, trace, isolate system in place this isn’t particularly relevant. You’ve got more resource to throw at it in “richer” countries. The same principle applies.

South Korea and Singapore have higher population densities than the UK, but I’m sure you’ll roll out another excuse.

The measures we needed to prevent the first wave are also those we need to prevent the second to save lives and protect the economy. We appear to be getting there but the testing and contact tracing has to improve to drive public confidence.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Compare the number of larger population centres in NZ with the number of cities and large towns in the UK.

I know, I worked there - but there a number of large population centres as well.

FYI, according to the 2018 census, the agricuture, forestry and fishing industry and associated support services employed 143,127 people out of 4.9 million (just under 3% of the population, or just under 6% of the working population).

78% of NZ live in urban areas of over 10,000 population.

Originally Posted by jfman

Ah, back to things being too hard for us, the fifth richest country in the world.

Wealth has nothing to do with it, the UK and NZ are not alike, at all, so comparing them is just nonsense, you know that of course, but you just cant help arguing.

Originally Posted by jfman

South Korea and Singapore have higher population densities than the UK, but I’m sure you’ll roll out another excuse.

Much like you roll out the same response every time, South Korea [or insert country here] did better than us at something [or insert whatever here].

You just go around in constant argumentative circles - often that someone did better than the UK at something, and/all everything is the governments fault (as you clearly dont like them) ... blah blah blah. You're like a teacher that tells the successful scientist they are a complete failure because John Doe scored higher marks than them on the English Test, and Jane Doe scored higher marks in Art.

No one is best at everything.
If you hate the UK and its government so much, why not emigrate to South Korea.
With all the praise you lavish on them, I think they would welcome you with open arms.

[jonbxx]

Wahey, state sponsored booze up in Malta;

Everyone over the age of 16 will receive €100 in vouchers as the government looks to revive public spending and consumption, it was announced on Monday.

The measure is part of the government's plan for economic regeneration as Malta starts to move forward from the Covid-19 pandemic.

The vouchers, which will be separated in five vouchers of €20 each, will arrive at recipients by post.

People will be able to use €80 out of the €100 at outlets such as restaurants and bars, while the remaining €20 can be redeemed at retail outlets which recently re-opened.

Link

Couldn't happen here, something about events in breweries and the government comes to mind...

It would be nice, but again, Malta is a small island.
Its total population is just under 500,000, of which about 365,000 are adults - its not quite the same as trying to do it for 50 million or so in the UK.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Paul

Wealth has nothing to do with it, the UK and NZ are not alike, at all, so comparing them is just nonsense, you know that of course, but you just cant help arguing.

Much like you roll out the same response every time, South Korea [or insert country here] did better than us at something [or insert whatever here].

You just go around in constant argumentative circles - often that someone did better than the UK at something, and/all everything is the governments fault (as you clearly dont like them) ... blah blah blah. You're like a teacher that tells the successful scientist they are a complete failure because John Doe scored higher marks than them on the English Test, and Jane Doe scored higher marks in Art.

No one is best at everything.
If you hate the UK and its government so much, why not emigrate to South Korea.
With all the praise you lavish on them, I think they would welcome you with open arms.

It’s not my fault they (South Korea) set the standard.

Far from hating this Government I want it to get this right - that results in less deaths and a quicker economic recovery (and in the long run better polling results). It allows them to concentrate on more important things - like Brexit and negotiating better international trade deals - which comes from us being in a better economic position.

It’s not my views being skewed from whether or not I voted for this Government or not - it’s others on the forum. Boris delivered Brexit, therefore can do no wrong.

Do we all agree we want them to get this right? Economic recovery? Less deaths? Pubs open? If so, I fail to see what the argument is actually about. We need to learn what went wrong, and what to fix going forward. That means looking elsewhere. Shrugging our shoulders and saying it’s too hard to test, trace, isolate cases results in months, if not years, of economic turmoil and more deaths. I think regardless of whether you voted Conservative, Labour, Leave or Remain that’s an undesirable outcome.

If people genuinely believe nothing has gone wrong to date then fundamentally that’s accepting herd immunity. With us about a quarter of the way there at a cost of 40,000 deaths then they’re ultimately accepting 160,000 deaths and years of an economic slump is a price worth paying rather than funding a world leading response to the virus. I don’t know on what planet that makes sense.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by downquark1

Well the much criticised herd immunity plan was designed to save the most lives in the long run if certain assumptions about the virus held.

The worst decision has been the care home ordeal, but this has been largely consistent with other nations and may have been simply the result of there being no alternatives, but I have no insight in carehome organisation.

The issue with the care home situation is what were they supposed to do. Not every person that has/ had CV Needs to be hospitalised. You can’t have people that don’t need to be in hospital, in hospital. So where do you send them?

The mistake was not in sending them back to the care homes, but not having a plan in place to manage it, and of course the PPE.

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s not my fault they (South Korea) set the standard.

No, its the 'fault' of SARS.
They got badly stung by it last time, so were better prepared (than pretty much everyone) this time.

That does not mean they got everything perfect however.
I'm certain that every country in the world could have done better (including SK), and all wish they had.
I'm equally sure most will review all the events over time, with a view to being better prepared in the future.

Originally Posted by jfman

Far from hating this Government I want it to get this right - that results in less deaths and a quicker economic recovery (and in the long run better polling results). It allows them to concentrate on more important things - like Brexit and negotiating better international trade deals - which comes from us being in a better economic position.

Originally Posted by jfman

Do we all agree we want them to get this right? Economic recovery? Less deaths? Pubs open?

Yes we do, but constantly pointing fingers isn't going to fix anything.
Getting it right is not some simple "do this, then this, then this" and we'll all be ok.
It's complex, and almost completely unknown territory, no one is going to 'get it right' all the time.

Originally Posted by jfman

If people genuinely believe nothing has gone wrong to date then fundamentally that’s accepting herd immunity.

I dont know a single person who believes "nothing has gone wrong to date".
The only permanent solution, of course, is immunity, however we actually get there.

[jfman]

I've never said South Korea got everything perfect.

I've been consistent throughout this thread since before lockdown. We needed to at minimum screen at airports, a lockdown was inevitable (even as others said it'd be too costly) and we need to identify where cases are. This is as true today as it was in March.

Others in the thread have moved the goalposts I can confidently say 100% I haven't and that I've never let who I voted for, or how I voted in in the Brexit referendum, influence my stance. The best health outcome, based on best practice. Health and economics are one and the same now.

In any other field, if it had nothing to do with politics, we would all look to see who performed better and how to emulate it. Equally what could have gone better should the same series of events happen again. None of that would be particularly exceptional in any other field.