Coronavirus (OLD)

[heero_yuy]

Quote from The Express:

Angela Merkel is coming under intense pressure to release her country from its lockdown, as growing social frustrations at the curfew started to make themselves felt in shocking and disturbing scenes in Frankfurt over the past weekend.

On Friday, German police clashed with a group of youths, who were violating the lockdown. As officers tried to disperse them and enforce social distancing, the thugs are said to have attacked them with iron bars. The window of a police car was smashed, after one member of the gang threw a stone, but fortunately the officer escaped any injury.

According to the German media outlet Deutsche Welle, another group of 20 then launched a sustained assault on an officer moments later, using stones, roof tiles and iron bars.

I suspect that it will only be a matter of time before it starts to kick off here as well if the lockdown continues too long.

Some sort of phased release is probably the way to go with the maintainance of the social spacing as far as possible and vulnerable groups encouraged to stay at home.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

I suspect that it will only be a matter of time before it starts to kick off here as well if the lockdown continues too long.

Some sort of phased release is probably the way to go with the maintainance of the social spacing as far as possible and vulnerable groups encouraged to stay at home.

Indeed a phased release is pretty inevitable and even then it will be gently gently one suspects.

As for those in the vulnerable groups personally l think they will be asked to stay at home for a good period longer.

Saw this on Social Media

2 reasons for the spread of COVID-19

1) The density of the population
2) The density of the population

[tweetiepooh]

It's the craft beers and ciders (unpasteurised) that only have a short shelf life but are the better drinking that will go first. Like lots of "live" producers (farming, plant breeders, food production) these need help either to trade or cover losses. You can make and store a fridge but not the stuff you put in them.
Lots of milk is (or could) go to waste because users of large quantities aren't.
Bakers (inc hotels/restuarants) aren't using flour and millers aren't geared up to move production to smaller units.
Can we find ways for trade to continue safely? Could ease demand in supermarkets and help the producers.
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Some items I've been monitoring prices have come down and availability is better. Hope those who were trying to price gouge learn a lesson. Thai rice for example though glutinous is harder to find - (one dodgy Amazon offer looks OK but careful examination shows that of the 1kg advertised only 480g is rice).
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What I'm missing is church and working with the kids. Our big summer events are postponed and our US trip this year where the wife's family were gathering from parts of the world to celebrate what would have been their dad's 100th if also off and it looks like airfares could be higher if next year planes are only allowed to be half full.
Yes it's fairly trivial compared to what others are going through but it could indicate that even when the virus is "beaten" the effects are going to last a lot longer, wonder what the effects on lives around the world is and if extra deaths indirectly caused are going to get factored in when the great blame game starts.
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Glad that the TV producers are finding different ways to get Stay at home across than the dour gent in the earlier messages who looked like he never enjoyed a moment in his life.
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Wonder how the planned monitoring/notification app is going to work? How will it impact people who don't/can't use it? I don't have a mobile phone and I don't want movements/access to be curtailed because of that. And you ALWAYS have to think that while introduced to counter infection and is benign what would/could some future government/company do.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Saw this on Social Media

Not as simple as that. Eg if a small village has only 100 people, and most of them gather together at some point when just one person is currently infected, then a lot of them are likely to also end up infected. If instead only smaller groupings occurred then there would be a slower and/or less risk of spreading. Several identified cases around the world, where a group of 10-100 people have gathered and a large proportion affected as a result.

The size of the groupings leads to heavy mixing and interactions. So bans on gatherings such as parties, weddings, funerals, and religious gatherings must continue to be banned. One infected person would have the opportunity to infect a few dozen at a time.


If people are kicking off because of the lockdown, just think where would be if the lockdown had started earlier? Sound familiar?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

If people are kicking off because of the lockdown, just think where would be if the lockdown had started earlier? Sound familiar?

We can't manage a pandemic by appealing to the lowest common denominator in society.

Of course had we started the lockdown earlier we could have less deaths, less infections and be closer to managing the spread - like Germany.

Originally Posted by nomadking

Not as simple as that. Eg if a small village has only 100 people, and most of them gather together at some point when just one person is currently infected, then a lot of them are likely to also end up infected. If instead only smaller groupings occurred then there would be a slower and/or less risk of spreading. Several identified cases around the world, where a group of 10-100 people have gathered and a large proportion affected as a result.

The size of the groupings leads to heavy mixing and interactions. So bans on gatherings such as parties, weddings, funerals, and religious gatherings must continue to be banned. One infected person would have the opportunity to infect a few dozen at a time.


If people are kicking off because of the lockdown, just think where would be if the lockdown had started earlier? Sound familiar?

It

Was

A

Joke...

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

We can't manage a pandemic by appealing to the lowest common denominator in society.

Of course had we started the lowdown earlier we could have less deaths, less infections and be closer to managing the spread - like Germany.

Germany didn't manage anything. They just had fewer points of introduction in the first place. Eg if the UK had 100 people bring it in to the country, and Germany had 10, then obviously Germany would be likely to have fewer cases. Bit of a simplistic example as many other factors are involved.

It's not something that spontaneously arises in 1 in 1m of the population, it has to be introduced and spread.


Eg if 2 tourists from Wuhan arrive in Northern Italy whilst heavily infected, then they are going to spread it to other tourists, who then return home.

Shocking images reveal how coronavirus ravaged the lungs of two Wuhan residents in their 60s on holiday in Italy - the country's first recorded victims of the disease.
Researchers at the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Rome studied the two individuals after they tested positive for COVID-19 on January 29, 2020.

3rd Feb

A hunt is underway to find hundreds of people who flew from coronavirus-hit Wuhan to Britain who are unaccounted for.
Officials are trying to trace 480 travellers who arrived in the country nine days ago from the city in China.

[Mr K]

It is true though that this situation has benefited anti-social people. It's natural selection, they'll take over. Quite right too, people spending far too much time chatting about nothing. Stay apart and stop waffling is the way forward, we'll all be more productive

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Germany didn't manage anything. They just had fewer points of introduction in the first place. Eg if the UK had 100 people bring it in to the country, and Germany had 10, then obviously Germany would be likely to have fewer cases. Bit of a simplistic example as many other factors are involved.

It's not something that spontaneously arises in 1 in 1m of the population, it has to be introduced and spread.

Eg if 2 tourists from Wuhan arrive in Northern Italy whilst heavily infected, then they are going to spread it to other tourists, who then return home.
3rd Feb

So do planes from Wuhan only fly "full" into London but one or two passengers into other countries? Do infected Europeans only cross Schengen borders in small numbers?

Your post, and links, are entirely speculative and unsurprisingly structured in a way to absolve our Government of any responsibility at all.

Eg if the UK had 100 people bring it in to the country, and Germany had 10, then obviously Germany would be likely to have fewer cases.

"If". These aren't known.

[tweetiepooh]

Don't forget the terms viral load and virus shedding.

If the 100 person village had 1 infection source and the whole village gathered. If the person was virus shedding but well enough to attend how much shedding and that single source would likely not be a high load to most attending. Yes - risk to the vulnerable but chances are not too catastrophic.

The problem is somewhere like London with lots of people crowded for more lengthy time into a small space with multiple infection sources. Even with low shedding (assuming higher shedders are sick and not there) the loading is much higher leading to more more severe infections and those infections also spreading more. You now also get a steep increase in sever infections putting demand on health service in one location. With London commuting you also get dispersal away from London of people that have suffered high viral load.

I do not want to live in a society where you are even more closely monitored and traced. I want to move freely, associate freely and not have some device/department keeping track or need to prove I can move around. I have a dry cough nearly permanently present for some time not virus related in any way. While I understand some nervousness at this time, I don't want to be curtailed or punished in any way because of it. I certainly don't want to wear a mask simply to ease fear around me.

Originally Posted by nomadking

Germany didn't manage anything. They just had fewer points of introduction in the first place. Eg if the UK had 100 people bring it in to the country, and Germany had 10, then obviously Germany would be likely to have fewer cases. Bit of a simplistic example as many other factors are involved.

It's not something that spontaneously arises in 1 in 1m of the population, it has to be introduced and spread.


Eg if 2 tourists from Wuhan arrive in Northern Italy whilst heavily infected, then they are going to spread it to other tourists, who then return home.
3rd Feb

Do you mean the Northern Italy that is not far from Germany, where in fact most of South Tyrol speak German, where lots of German tourists go ski-ing, and where you can drive to in three hours from Munich?

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

Don't forget the terms viral load and virus shedding.

If the 100 person village had 1 infection source and the whole village gathered. If the person was virus shedding but well enough to attend how much shedding and that single source would likely not be a high load to most attending. Yes - risk to the vulnerable but chances are not too catastrophic.

The problem is somewhere like London with lots of people crowded for more lengthy time into a small space with multiple infection sources. Even with low shedding (assuming higher shedders are sick and not there) the loading is much higher leading to more more severe infections and those infections also spreading more. You now also get a steep increase in sever infections putting demand on health service in one location. With London commuting you also get dispersal away from London of people that have suffered high viral load.

I do not want to live in a society where you are even more closely monitored and traced. I want to move freely, associate freely and not have some device/department keeping track or need to prove I can move around. I have a dry cough nearly permanently present for some time not virus related in any way. While I understand some nervousness at this time, I don't want to be curtailed or punished in any way because of it. I certainly don't want to wear a mask simply to ease fear around me.

Here in lies the rub... it's not what YOU want. It's whats best for the health of the country as a whole. By this I mean the best for the vulnerable, the economy, the NHS staff and all other key workers.

I'm not keen on seeing monitoring the likes of Taiwan, Singapore & China have in place being implemented. However, if that's whats justifiably needed to help save as many people as possible until if or when a suitable vaccination is created or implemented. then it's just something that we're going to have to live with.

[denphone]

Britain's economy could shrink by 35% in the second quarter and see unemployment jump by two million, according to a scenario published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-econom...nario-11973048

https://obr.uk/coronavirus-reference-scenario/

[jfman]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Here in lies the rub... it's not what YOU want. It's whats best for the health of the country as a whole. By this I mean the best for the vulnerable, the economy, the NHS staff and all other key workers.

I'm not keen on seeing monitoring the likes of Taiwan, Singapore & China have in place being implemented. However, if that's whats justifiably needed to help save as many people as possible until if or when a suitable vaccination is created or implemented. then it's just something that we're going to have to live with.

For a country that prides itself on the Blitz spirit (not that most of the people who refer to it so often actually lived through the war) there’s an awful lot of people who are quite reluctant to just suck it up for 3-6 months.