Coronavirus (OLD)

[Russ]

Originally Posted by Pierre

We won’t know until an accurate anti-body test is produced.

Mrs Pierre and I often go to London several times a month. Mrs Pierre developed a cough and some kind of Respiratory issue before In December.

So we don’t know if she had it or not and I would suggest there are many thousands in our situation. It would be good to know one way or the other.

I was in Leicester over the new year, on my way back from the gym I instantly started to develop a cough and respiratory issues that continued quite significantly until the end of January. My OH is now convinced I had the Rona back then. I’m not so sure as I don’t remember anyone around me getting ill but yes it would be nice (although not essential obviously) to know.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

The good news is if 98-99% are completely unaware then the chances are it's far more widespread than expected and we will inadvertently achieve herd immunity.

As the lockdown eases gradually we can take confidence.

I doubt it could possibly be that high as they tell us that herd immunity is achieved at 80%. However, I have always said that this virus is spreading more quickly than people think. Just how quickly is the big unknown.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I doubt it could possibly be that high as they tell us that herd immunity is achieved at 80%. However, I have always said that this virus is spreading more quickly than people think. Just how quickly is the big unknown.

X

[jfman]

If we are detecting 5,000 cases a day his theory is that at the same time roughly 250,000 to 500,000 silent infections are taking place. We are also not testing some symptomatic people (e.g. those working from home just now) so these figures could be even higher.

As Seph says the numbers infected up to now would be over 10 million (possibly as high as 20 million). Herd immunity would be achieved sometime in the next 2-6 months under the present conditions. Pubs open in time for the office Christmas parties.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

If we are detecting 5,000 cases a day his theory is that at the same time roughly 250,000 to 500,000 silent infections are taking place. We are also not testing some symptomatic people (e.g. those working from home just now) so these figures could be even higher.

As Seph says the numbers infected up to now would be over 10 million (possibly as high as 20 million). Herd immunity would be achieved sometime in the next 2-6 months under the present conditions. Pubs open in time for the office Christmas parties.

... or even in the next 2 minutes! Pubs open tomorrow.
(I wouldn't go).

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Chris

All these answers and more would be yours if you actually bothered to read the thread and the articles linked therein. The iPhone issue, in particular, has already been explained twice since it was first posted this morning.

Oh dear. Got out of bed on the wrong side again?

I have read the thread and the linked articles. I'll ask again, why a test using Jailbroken iPhones is meaningful in this discussion? The number of Jailbroken iPhones is so small as to be statistically meaningless. Apple is also constanting plugging the exploits that allows the Jailbreak in the first place.

It seems that you were trying to demonstrate that the Government's decision to write their own App even when they were told it would not work as intended was a good one and not just another example of "we know better"?

---------- Post added at 11:28 ---------- Previous post was at 11:23 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

If we are detecting 5,000 cases a day his theory is that at the same time roughly 250,000 to 500,000 silent infections are taking place. We are also not testing some symptomatic people (e.g. those working from home just now) so these figures could be even higher.

As Seph says the numbers infected up to now would be over 10 million (possibly as high as 20 million). Herd immunity would be achieved sometime in the next 2-6 months under the present conditions. Pubs open in time for the office Christmas parties.

There seems a lot of talk about "Herd immunity" but as yet, there seems no scientific consensus that immunity is indeed guarenteed and if it is, how long it lasts for.

It would be a bold move to relax the lockdown based on herd immunity when it does not exist in the form most people might understand it.

[jfman]

As Seph pointed out in post 3085 I don't agree with the article in the Lancet - I'm playing along though for the analysis.

If it's a thing though and the figures I've posted above hold up then arguably it justifies extending the lockdown - after all it would be time limited. Restrictions gradually eased from June/July wouldn't see significant spikes if the theory holds. Further lifting of restrictions from August/September and things could be back to normal not long after that.

Re: the jailbroken iPhones. The jailbroken phone is required to let them delve further into the behaviour of the app. The intention is the final app once designed can run on iPhones that aren't jailbroken.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

As Seph pointed out in post 3085 I don't agree with the article in the Lancet - I'm playing along though for the analysis. .

Loving the interplay between you and Seph on this thread at the moment.

Originally Posted by jfman

As Seph pointed out in post 3085 I don't agree with the article in the Lancet - I'm playing along though for the analysis.

If it's a thing though and the figures I've posted above hold up then arguably it justifies extending the lockdown - after all it would be time limited. Restrictions gradually eased from June/July wouldn't see significant spikes if the theory holds. Further lifting of restrictions from August/September and things could be back to normal not long after that.

Re: the jailbroken iPhones. The jailbroken phone is required to let them delve further into the behaviour of the app. The intention is the final app once designed can run on iPhones that aren't jailbroken.

Google, The Book of Face, and other major US Tech companies expect most of their workers to work from home until 2021 - these companies have very effective (and large) Risk Assessment and Management sections, and they wouldn't be doing this unless they thought there was still a substantial risk to their staff (and their staff are their biggest assets). Google and FB especially are very strong in the Data Analytics and Behavioural Science areas, so their forecasts will be unbiased by political considerations, just H&S/profit based.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/google...CAD-03-10abf6j

Originally Posted by ianch99

Oh dear. Got out of bed on the wrong side again?

I believe that’s what’s known as transference.

I have read the thread and the linked articles. I'll ask again, why a test using Jailbroken iPhones is meaningful in this discussion? The number of Jailbroken iPhones is so small as to be statistically meaningless. Apple is also constanting plugging the exploits that allows the Jailbreak in the first place.

Seeing as you have read it but not understood it, I’ll try to be as simple as possible.

The researchers use jail broken phones so they can verify that the app is working as claimed.

Jail broken phones allow unauthorised apps to be run, that reveal things normally hidden to users.

The jail broken state of the phone is of no relevance beyond providing evidence that the tracing app seems to work as intended.

It seems that you were trying to demonstrate that the Government's decision to write their own App even when they were told it would not work as intended was a good one and not just another example of "we know better"?.

And it seems you’re more interested in maintaining your belief that the app won’t work, in the face of hard evidence to the contrary.

Go figure.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Loving the interplay between you and Seph on this thread at the moment.

jfman & I are entitled to agree with each other on sensible matters!

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Google, The Book of Face, and other major US Tech companies expect most of their workers to work from home until 2021 - these companies have very effective (and large) Risk Assessment and Management sections, and they wouldn't be doing this unless they thought there was still a substantial risk to their staff (and their staff are their biggest assets). Google and FB especially are very strong in the Data Analytics and Behavioural Science areas, so their forecasts will be unbiased by political considerations, just H&S/profit based.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/google...CAD-03-10abf6j

I’d imagine anyone who can promote home working would for some time to come. Offices are essentially too dangerous to put people into that aren’t required to be there.

Lifts, kitchen spaces, shared bathrooms, secure entry systems, shared meeting rooms, shared equipment, hot desking, air conditioning systems and a general tendency to squeeze as many people as you can into small spaces is exactly the kind of environment viruses thrive in.

I’ve lost count of the number of times over the years I’ve saw the common cold spread around an open plan office.

Add into that how do people actually get there: Public transport. Another broadly dangerous activity with far too many people in close proximity.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’d imagine anyone who can promote home working would for some time to come. Offices are essentially too dangerous to put people into that aren’t required to be there.

Lifts, kitchen spaces, shared bathrooms, secure entry systems, shared meeting rooms, shared equipment, hot desking, air conditioning systems and a general tendency to squeeze as many people as you can into small spaces is exactly the kind of environment viruses thrive in.

I’ve lost count of the number of times over the years I’ve saw the common cold spread around an open plan office.

Add into that how do people actually get there: Public transport. Another broadly dangerous activity with far too many people in close proximity.

Totally agree. Is that a record?

[jfman]

With such a broad consensus emerging I'm amazed I've been banned from this thread so often.

[pip08456]

WFH has been here for a while, just not as widespread that has proved necessary..

Companies who until now may have been averse to WFH may now embrace it and it could become a "new norm".

Some companies may like the idea of reducing cost by reducing office space.