Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

No I’m saying that the whole system could be reformed to increase investment. The problem with having control of only income tax is that you don’t control other taxes - on dividends for example, or corporation tax, that restricts your ability to meaningfully reform the whole system.

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An independent Scotland wouldn’t necessarily vote SNP.

That implies England is being hampered with higher corporation tax.
SNP

Powers over most businesses taxes, including Corporation Tax, are reserved to Westminster. SNP MPs won’t support further reductions to Corporation Tax.

Labour

Labour says it would ‘gradually reverse cuts to corporation tax’ to reach 21% (small profits rate for businesses with annual turnover under £300,000) from April 2021 and increase the main CT rate to 26% from April 2022 from the current 19% paid by all businesses, after a staggered increase to 21% from April 2020 and then 24% from April 2021. This would raise £23.7bn within five years, according to the funding document, released with the Labour manifesto.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Not that it matters much, but you just dropped a couple of notches in my estimation.

It's hard to predict what would happen but I think the IFS report that Pierre highlighted is the best analysis we will find. The added dimensions to this are Brexit and Covid.
I believe Scotland and England are better off in both Unions.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's hard to predict what would happen but I think the IFS report that Pierre highlighted is the best analysis we will find. The added dimensions to this are Brexit and Covid.
I believe Scotland and England are better off in both Unions.

On the issue of whether or not Scotland *could* be independent ... it’s a strawman argument. Seps frequently recite the line “too wee, too poor, too stupid”, but nobody is making that argument about Scotland. Only seps are putting it forward, as a strawman they can then tear down.

The argument really is whether Scotland could continue to enjoy levels of welfare and other public spending commensurate with an economy the size of the U.K., once it is no longer in the U.K. it is very, very hard to see where the money is coming from in the brave new world nationalists like to paint. They make breezy assertions about Scotland taking control of its destiny as if that is self-evidently better, and fail to address the very real problem of a much richer southern neighbour over which it would no longer have any influence whatsoever. The Union has always been as much about forcing England to put Scotland’s interests ahead of those of other, foreign allies, which at root is why Scotland’s imperial venture at Darien went belly up.

The problem many of the most committed Nats seem to have, when you get them fulminating over Darien, is that they put it down to perfidious Albion as if it were some sort of treachery, rather than simply an independent foreign competitor state acting in its own interests and with regard to a far more important treaty it had made with a far more significant European power (Namely Spain). The debate leading up to the 2014 referendum was likewise characterised by Salmond cheerfully asserting how newly independent England, its government shorn of all obligations to treat Scotland as part of the home territory, would somehow magnanimously give Scotland a free pass on the national debt and chuck in a seat on the Bank of England’s MPC while they were at it.

All that was nonsense on sticks then, and it’s nonsense on sticks now. An independent Scotland would not exist in a vacuum, and no amount of control over its own economic levers will make up for the loss of influence over the way England is run.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

The same place any Government gets its money from - taxation. It’s entirely speculative to say that Scotland would automatically have an unsustainable deficit or be unable to borrow. It’s also speculative to say that Scotland couldn’t reform it’s taxation system to make it more competitive against other countries (including the EU countries) to facilitate investment.

I agree it’s less than ideal for England to be governed in such a way. English independence would be an excellent idea - win win for everyone. Unless of course, there’s more to it and all is not as it seems with the figures given by London.

The same place any Government gets its money from - taxation. It’s entirely speculative to say that Scotland would automatically have an unsustainable deficit or be unable to borrow. It’s also speculative to say that Scotland couldn’t reform it’s taxation system to make it more competitive against other countries (including the EU countries) to facilitate investment.

"entirely speculative" is a poor description of Nomad's suppositions, which are obvious to most. Here is some data for you to consider:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/go...%20expenditure.

1. £56 billion gross tax type income (excl. North Sea pittance)
2. £75 billion public expenditure
3. £25 billion Barnett Grant

So you speculate, where's the £25 billion going to come from in a "liberated" Scotland? No manipulation/reform of the tax system there will yield that sum?

Come on - you've got a credibility gap to cross.





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Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's hard to predict what would happen but I think the IFS report that Pierre highlighted is the best analysis we will find. The added dimensions to this are Brexit and Covid.
I believe Scotland and England are better off in both Unions.

Phew.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

That implies England is being hampered with higher corporation tax.
SNP


Labour

You are making the false assumption that how an SNP MP, in London, would act is the same as an MSP in an independent Scotland. The comparative advantages (and disadvantages) would be a consideration in an independent Scotland. For the UK I'd only imagine the Barnett consequential were of consideration - a situation I'd agree as unfair and propose to resolve by removing Scotland from the UK.

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Originally Posted by Sephiroth

"entirely speculative" is a poor description of Nomad's suppositions, which are obvious to most. Here is some data for you to consider:

https://www.gov.scot/publications/go...%20expenditure.

1. £56 billion gross tax type income (excl. North Sea pittance)
2. £75 billion public expenditure
3. £25 billion Barnett Grant

So you speculate, where's the £25 billion going to come from in a "liberated" Scotland? No manipulation/reform of the tax system there will yield that sum?

Come on - you've got a credibility gap to cross.


---------- Post added at 16:10 ---------- Previous post was at 16:09 ----------



Phew.

These figures all rely on apprortioning a percentage of 'reserved' spending to Scotland and a proportion of the UK national debt (spiralling) to Scotland. Yet don't allow Scotland to independantly make decisions to resolve the debt issue. Year on year the figures aggregate to the extent they become pointless.

... which is why the whole separatist case is nuts. It’s just a short hop, skip and a jump from here, to seps convincing themselves, and then each other, that Westminster is the Wastemonster, which has racked up debts against Scotland’s will, and which Scotland therefore has the right to walk away from. Righteous fury is magnified in the echo chamber of places like Twatter and Wingnuts over Scotland, and then leaks out onto the more open and balanced bits of the internet (Like right here) where said Nats simply can’t understand why their devastating logic isn’t accepted at face value.

I have read nothing here in recent days that wasn’t posted, and rebutted, in this thread a thousand times over in the run up to 2014. All the usual self-serving arguments are in play, suggestions that every argument for the union will be received on “the doorstep” with outrage and new converts to separation, suggestions that Scotland is trapped in an English empire, suggestions that Scotland has a right to expect to break up the union and walk away with its share of the assets but without its share of the debt ... absolute bat crazy nonsense.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

You are making the false assumption that how an SNP MP, in London, would act is the same as an MSP in an independent Scotland. The comparative advantages (and disadvantages) would be a consideration in an independent Scotland. For the UK I'd only imagine the Barnett consequential were of consideration - a situation I'd agree as unfair and propose to resolve by removing Scotland from the UK.

---------- Post added at 21:13 ---------- Previous post was at 21:11 ----------



These figures all rely on apprortioning a percentage of 'reserved' spending to Scotland and a proportion of the UK national debt (spiralling) to Scotland. Yet don't allow Scotland to independantly make decisions to resolve the debt issue. Year on year the figures aggregate to the extent they become pointless.

The SNP at Westminster is the same party as the SNP at Holyrood. Are you saying that the SNP are in favour of cutting corporation tax, but only if it's Scotland only and not the UK. Where do they say that?
The Scots are in control of their own excess deficit. They are in control of a £52bn budget.
COVID 19 revised budget

3. The main changes to the Scottish Government's spending plans, as set out in the supporting document to the Budget Bill, are explained in paragraphs 5 and 6. In total these changes will increase the Scottish Government budget by £2,787.2 million from £49,250.7 million to £52,037.9 million.

Link

Total Public Sector Expenditure 2018-19

• Total expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the Scottish Government, UK Government, and all other parts of the public sector was £75.3 billion, an increase of 2.4%. This is equivalent to 9.3% of total UK public sector expenditure, and £13,854 per person, which is £1,661 per person greater than the UK average.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

... which is why the whole separatist case is nuts. It’s just a short hop, skip and a jump from here, to seps convincing themselves, and then each other, that Westminster is the Wastemonster, which has racked up debts against Scotland’s will, and which Scotland therefore has the right to walk away from. Righteous fury is magnified in the echo chamber of places like Twatter and Wingnuts over Scotland, and then leaks out onto the more open and balanced bits of the internet (Like right here) where said Nats simply can’t understand why their devastating logic isn’t accepted at face value.

I have read nothing here in recent days that wasn’t posted, and rebutted, in this thread a thousand times over in the run up to 2014. All the usual self-serving arguments are in play, suggestions that every argument for the union will be received on “the doorstep” with outrage and new converts to separation, suggestions that Scotland is trapped in an English empire, suggestions that Scotland has a right to expect to break up the union and walk away with its share of the assets but without its share of the debt ... absolute bat crazy nonsense.

I’m 100% certain it’s the same arguments. That has always been my point.

There’s no compelling case for the Union to a 21st century Scotland. All you’ve got is old unionists dying and independence voters joining the electorate. Like Sinn Fein realises victory will be found in the ballot box, with shifting views, younger people not as entrenched in the past. “Daddy voted Labour, Grandad voted Labour” etc.

I’ve not read anything in recent days of any interest either. However it’s not my side facing a losing battle.

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Originally Posted by nomadking

The SNP at Westminster is the same party as the SNP at Holyrood. Are you saying that the SNP are in favour of cutting corporation tax, but only if it's Scotland only and not the UK. Where do they say that?
The Scots are in control of their own excess deficit. They are in control of a £52bn budget.
COVID 19 revised budget


Link

I’m saying that the rational decisions of SNP MPs in votes affecting the UK would be different from those by MSPs in an independent Scotland. After all, there’d be no Barnett Formula or trucks of UK Government investment crossing the border - evidenced of course by our great prosperity - so they’d need to get creative.

Can I ask why you care? I got lambasted by a Scottish member about whether I was resident in Scotland or not. There’s a great whiff of English exceptionalism in this thread.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

<SNIP>

These figures all rely on apprortioning a percentage of 'reserved' spending to Scotland and a proportion of the UK national debt (spiralling) to Scotland. Yet don't allow Scotland to independantly make decisions to resolve the debt issue. Year on year the figures aggregate to the extent they become pointless.

You might as well have strung a series of random words together for all that the above might mean.

The figures come from the Scottish Government and are factual. Even if they could make independent decisions, the Scottish Government would not be able to make up the shortfall. Can you show otherwise?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

You might as well have strung a series of random words together for all that the above might mean.

The figures come from the Scottish Government and are factual. Even if they could make independent decisions, the Scottish Government would not be able to make up the shortfall. Can you show otherwise?

Why is that the barometer?

The UK Government cannot balance the books, despite a decade of austerity. The barometer is surely that it can sustain interest payments as that's seemingly what the rest of the globe does when you look at the aggregate debt of the planet (who to?).

These figures are underpinned by a UK Government interpretation of what an independent Scotland would have as income and expenditure. An independent Scotland might decide, for example, it's not worth paying for nuclear submarines that need US permission to launch.

Keep going, I’ve almost got Nat Bingo

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Keep going, I’ve almost got Nat Bingo

You may laugh - it's the unionists that need to make the compelling case. I note that you cannot. It's the tired old case that the SNP voters disregard reality (increasing) and unionist voters continue to howl at the moon (decreasing)

Nor can Mad Max, and we've attracted some English nationalists into the thread which while I respect their right to an opinion often lack the self awareness to realise that their activity has the opposite effect that they desire.

It's not uncommon, for some, on this forum redirect the conversation from the question asked to the question they would prefer to be asked. This thread is a prime example.

Anyone got a compelling case for the union to twist back the 10-15% of "nationalists" that switched sides in the last decade?

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Why is that the barometer?

The UK Government cannot balance the books, despite a decade of austerity. The barometer is surely that it can sustain interest payments as that's seemingly what the rest of the globe does when you look at the aggregate debt of the planet (who to?).

These figures are underpinned by a UK Government interpretation of what an independent Scotland would have as income and expenditure. An independent Scotland might decide, for example, it's not worth paying for nuclear submarines that need US permission to launch.

Distraction, distraction, distraction.

[nomadking]

Based upon Sephiroth's link, only £3.3bn of defence spending was attributed to Scotland. So even with no defence spending at all in an independent Scotland, that doesn't make that a significant dent in a £12.7bn deficit.
Government borrowing interest rates are connected to deficit levels.
Link

Higher debt interest payments. As borrowing increases, the government have to pay more interest rate payments on those who hold bonds. This can lead to a greater percentage of tax revenue going to debt interest payments.
Higher interest rates. In some circumstances, higher borrowing can push up interest rates because markets are nervous about governments ability to repay and they demand higher bond yields in return for perceived risk.

How's this for a misleading statement from the SNP.

He also said Scotland's "notional deficit" had fallen faster than the UK's in percentage point terms.

The UK figure was so low, that it couldn't drop that far in %age point terms, especially when Scotland accounts for more than half of the UK deficit.

However he accepted that in absolute terms the Scottish deficit had fallen 14% over the year, while the UK's had fallen by 45%.
He also accepted the Scottish deficit was six times larger than the UKs - expressed as a proportion of GDP - up from four times in 2017/18.

A large chunk of the need for austerity is a result of Scots one way or another. Whether it's that they account for half of the current(pre COVID-19) deficit or whether it was the excessive spending of Blair, Brown, and Darling(all Scottish).
Link

The Scottish deficit is the highest in Europe and one of the largest in the western world.

Any trade deals with the EU or anybody else, would no longer apply to an independent Scotland. Any deals are made with the UK as an entity, not as a specific list of countries. Access to any deals in place at the time, can't be handed over to Scotland. Just as any deal the EU makes with whoever, applies to whatever the current list of EU members is. Eg if Turkey joins the EU, then any deal applies to them as well. Eg If country X(not just the UK), leaves the EU, then any trade deal made with the EU, no longer applies to X.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Phew.

But that's not to say that Scotland can't be a successful, independent country. There's plenty of small countries in Europe that are successful and some like Slovenia and Slovakia which have split away from other ones and had to build their own institutions and currencies.

Scotland has a larger population than the Republic of Ireland which has been successful but it is spread over a far larger area which increases costs in traditional economic models but in a Covid world, might work to its advantage.