Coronavirus (OLD)

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by nomadking

The overwhelming reason for the differences is the morons in this country, especially in the media.

I'm not sure the UK's population is more moronic than other countries and I fail to see why the media is to blame.
However, a delayed lock down, open-doors policy with flights, ineptness with track and trace, delayed testing programme, pushing infected people into care homes, delays with PPE have sadly contributed to the UK's higher death rate.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

One that they caught was referenced in the programme. There have been others (else surely the virus wouldn’t be present at all?). What they’ve shown is how to target individual infections and break chains of transmission.

This applies whether in villages, towns, cities, at train stations, in airports.

They have a well oiled machine designed to find and stamp out the virus.

We’ve scientific advisers that says it’s too hard and shrug their shoulders. It’s a bad flu, after all.

And the Government here advised against.

And abandoned it because without airport screening and large scale testing it’s pissing in the wind. All because we took the decision it wasn’t worth identifying individual cases to stamp out the outbreak.

That was a political choice along with “herd immunity week“.

The word you are looking for is flawed, Nomadking. The response was flawed.

What measures the UK public would tolerate would vary depending on what options you were giving them - framed against a choice of lockdowns and the economy tanking very quickly people would be amenable to some of the measures in South Korea.

Finally, a sensible point. Yes, South Korea are world leaders in this field based on experience. Not guesswork.

Back to your selective use of evidence once more. Look at the headline infection and death rates in South Korea and less severe economic impact.

You are putting up the straw man that if South Korea have ANY INFECTIONS AT ALL that is failure.

Any impartial observer, not desperate to defend our response at any cost would happily swap it for the 99.99% of times South Korea get it right.


No individual can beat the pandemic. People get infected in workplaces, in cars, at home and on public transport.

This requires state infrastructure in place to test, trace and isolate. Again you are simply trying to absolve the Government of blame.

While those on benefits can sit at home with their feed up in a global pandemic the workforce needs the state to make going to work and carrying out relatively normal activities to be made as safe as possible. That requires test, trace and isolate.

The South Korea experience with MERS, DIDN'T happen in the UK. That influenced SCIENTIFIC advice in the UK.


The queues outside KFC etc, clearly demonstrate those in UK are a bunch of morons and nothing will work.


On which planet would people in the UK have allowed the things that were in place in South Korea? What other countries followed the South Korea example? Even South Korea didn't until recently.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has changed its advice on face masks, saying they should be worn in public to help stop the spread of coronavirus.
...
At the same time, the WHO stressed that face masks were just one of a range of tools that could be used to reduce the risk of transmission - and that they should not give people a false sense of protection.
"Masks on their own will not protect you from Covid-19," said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

So it was just the UK?

The organisation said its new guidance had been prompted by studies over recent weeks. "We are advising governments to encourage that the general public wear a mask," Dr Van Kerkhove said.

February 2010 report

43. HPA believes that the practical issues for public use as laid out above, coupled with the reduced likelihood, intensity and duration of exposure (compared with healthcare settings), the risk of diluting or complicating messages about home self-isolation, the risks of engendering a false sense of security (eg overemphasis on masks as means of protection compared with hand washing) increase the likelihood that masks worn widely by the public would provide little benefit.

If you have to base a plan on absolutely everything that's even slightly possible, it just gets silly. You have to keep a sense of proportion, and base things on what is most likely to happen, and that in turn will be based upon what has actually happened in the past.


If you have LESS points of introduction, then WHATEVER you do or don't do, will mean LESS cases. If you have people coming in from all over the world, China, Germany, Italy, France, Austria etc, then you will have MORE cases IRRESPECTIVE of what you do or don't do.
Just think of the fictional scenario where somebody deliberately uses people to spread a virus. The more people used in country X compared to country Y, will increase the number of infections in X compared to Y. THAT IS COMMON SENSE.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

The South Korea experience with MERS, DIDN'T happen in the UK. That influenced SCIENTIFIC advice in the UK.

Ah English exceptionalism. We don’t need to study global science. If it didn’t happen here it doesn’t count.

queues outside KFC etc, clearly demonstrate those in UK are a bunch of morons and nothing will work.

Government has said it’s safe to open.

On which planet would people in the UK have allowed the things that were in place in South Korea? What other countries followed the South Korea example? Even South Korea didn't until recently.

One where the alternatives are rolling lockdowns and a trashed economy.

South Korea didn’t respond to Coronavirus before Coronavirus. What planet are you on?

So it was just the UK?

February 2010 report

If you have to base a plan on absolutely everything that's even slightly possible, it just gets silly. You have to keep a sense of proportion, and base things on what is most likely to happen, and that in turn will be based upon what has actually happened in the past.

As long as it happened before in Britain, obviously.

[Pierre]

Well life is pretty much back to normal here, if the school had opened as it should have it would have been even more normal, but typical Labour council played politics instead.

Just need kids football to start again, it can In groups of six, but we’ve Decided to wait until we can train the whole team together.

Don’t even have to wait outside the local coop anymore.

I don’t know anyone that has had the virus, I might of had it, who knows?

Hopefully the panic makers may calm down now and we can start to work towards normality by Autumn.

[jfman]

There's zero chance of normality before Autumn. It's hardly "panic makers" when we have all observed what uncontrolled spread of the virus results in - the highest deaths per capita in the world.

Schools, even where open, are not open to all. Those who can work from home are still doing so - that's demand for retail and hospitality in major towns and cities that will be absent.

While the "mild flu" fantasists can dream of a return to normal ahead of proper mechanisms to control the virus it simply won't happen because of the deadly consequences.

[peanut]

I suppose we'll know a lot more in a month or so with all the mass protests going off around this country and worldwide all ignoring social distancing.

[Julian]

Originally Posted by jfman

There's zero chance of normality before Autumn. It's hardly "panic makers" when we have all observed what uncontrolled spread of the virus results in - the highest deaths per capita in the world.

Schools, even where open, are not open to all. Those who can work from home are still doing so - that's demand for retail and hospitality in major towns and cities that will be absent.

While the "mild flu" fantasists can dream of a return to normal ahead of proper mechanisms to control the virus it simply won't happen because of the deadly consequences.

Per Capita Death Rates

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Julian

Per Capita Death Rates

It's a drum jfman likes to keep beating even when it's wrong.

[jfman]

I'm sure like being the fifth biggest economy in the world a moveable feast. Where are we now? Second, third?

They should put that on the side of a bus. Either way it's utterly damning and evidence of a situation hopelessly handled despite having plenty of warnings that other countries did not have.

And a situation that will continue to be mismanaged until we test, trace and isolate effectively.

Death counts yesterday (not that they necessarily died yesterday): 10 in Wales, 6 in Scotland and 1 in Northern Ireland.

What's a good score for England? 300? 250?

[nomadking]

South Korea is geographically isolated. UK is part for Europe.
Link

The blood transfusion service NHSBT has been doing surveillance of the prevalence of Covid-19.
This includes samples from blood donors across England, which are tested each week for the presence of antibodies.
It found that the antibodies were present in 1.5% of donor samples in London in the week of 23 March.
Given that it takes at least two weeks for antibodies to show up, that means those people got infected at least two weeks previously, in early March.
That is only a week or so after the first confirmed human to human transmission in the UK. Bear in mind that donors are advised to wait a couple of weeks after any sickness before giving blood, so it might have been even earlier - unless they were asymptomatic and never knew they had been infected with a virus.

That is the scale of infection in the UK before it was that noticeable. Try contact tracing for 1.5% of Londoners and the rest of the UK.

[jfman]

Never heard of international flights?

I think you'll find that Great Britain is an island, off of mainland Europe. Can easily have implemented airport screening.

The point is you wouldn't need to contact trace everyone within that 1.5% if we had the virus under control. Instead we decided to go for herd immunity week. Of course, you are happy to ignore these realities simply to defend the Government at all costs.

Once again - at what point does the death count reach a point where you will accept there has been ANY mismanagement by the Government?

The fact we hadn't confirmed human to human transmission is because we had no routine testing programme. This was "a mild flu".

[papa smurf]

Given the amount of idiots protesting around the country no amount of tracing will put the lid back on this madness ,expect a second wave

[denphone]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Given the amount of idiots protesting around the country no amount of tracing will put the lid back on this madness ,expect a second wave

l think its pretty inevitable that there will be a second wave papa.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by denphone

l think its pretty inevitable that there will be a second wave papa.

I think it will just trundle along at its current rate. It’ll become less newsworthy. Hey, football will back in a few weeks, they can go back to talking about that.

In September it will still be like, daily death toll of 150, and the response will be “yeah whatever, going for a pint?“

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I think it will just trundle along at its current rate. It’ll become less newsworthy. Hey, football will back in a few weeks, they can go back to talking about that.

In September it will still be like, daily death toll of 150, and the response will be “yeah whatever, going for a pint?“

There's no evidence to support it trundling along at the current rate if lockdown restrictions ease. More people, having more indoor close contacts means more people exposed.

Unless they can reliably find and isolate carriers, quickly, to minimise risk to the population at large the outcome is inevitable. It's been seen all over the world.

What's different next time that will prevent it? Handwashing to GSTQ?

It's wishful thinking, just like "it's just a flu" in February and that Italy would get it worse than us because of multigenerational households.

Now with an adequate and reliable testing regime I'd agree with you. The numbers of people dying would be less relevant - the big questions would be what's the chances that I'm unknowingly carrying or those around me are? If people had a system they had confidence in then they would go for a pint.