PM Boris forms a government

[tweetiepooh]

If Boris lets his cabinet/parliament/civil service get on with the work what he actually says may not matter too much.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

If Boris lets his cabinet/parliament/civil service get on with the work what he actually says may not matter too much.

Ah so leave it to the civil service and parliament to deliver Brexit. A cunning plan indeed, they'll be sure to deliver

Originally Posted by Mr K

The problem the strategists have is that by the time the next election comes, they won't have been able to hide Bozza away any longer or stop him opening his gob. The electorate will have seen Bozza 'not in action', we'll have maybe had a hard Brexit and the ensuing fall out. The Govt. of the day will carry the can. That's why Corbyn is all for Boris and secretly for a hard Brexit.

History says otherwise. He won London, twice, against Ken Livingstone. I know it’s hard to compute but he has an ability to connect with the electorate. The sort of gaffes that cause palpitations within the Westminster bubble simply don’t resonate in the same way with the wider electorate.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Mr K

The problem the strategists have is that by the time the next election comes, they won't have been able to hide Bozza away any longer or stop him opening his gob. The electorate will have seen Bozza 'not in action', we'll have maybe had a hard Brexit and the ensuing fall out. The Govt. of the day will carry the can. That's why Corbyn is all for Boris and secretly for a hard Brexit.

You've only got to look at the Trump presidency to see how wrong you are about that. Boris has quite a following, and you are most unwise to ignore that.

This country will never elect a Marxist led Labour Party except by accident (ie a split vote). As long as the Brexit Party doesn't contest the next GE, there is no chance of that happening.

Johnson isn't the same character he was in the London Mayoral race these days though. A lot of people have already formed an opinion of him and he has become a bogeyman of sorts for Remain.

I think he would win a majority at the next election though but because of how unpopular Corbyn is. Even with the Tories in an utter state they're still largely matching Labour so any sense of direction and structure from the party will probably bounce them over the top. Plus the voters who left them will likely come back if Corbyn looks to stand a chance of getting into No 10.

What's interesting is his seat, Uxbridge. If (let's face it when) he comes PM then Labour might well focus on it. He has a decent majority at 10% but if there are many Tory > Lib Dem defections then it becomes a contested seat. London + increase in young voters there + Brexit might make it a contest albeit a long shot.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

History says otherwise. He won London, twice, against Ken Livingstone. I know it’s hard to compute but he has an ability to connect with the electorate. The sort of gaffes that cause palpitations within the Westminster bubble simply don’t resonate in the same way with the wider electorate.

I'm not sure he would win again as London Mayor. The Evening Standard on Friday has said it would back the liberal, pro-business Boris but has reservations about the current populist, f-business Boris.

Originally Posted by Damien

Johnson isn't the same character he was in the London Mayoral race these days though. A lot of people have already formed an opinion of him and he has become a bogeyman of sorts for Remain.

I think he would win a majority at the next election though but because of how unpopular Corbyn is. Even with the Tories in an utter state they're still largely matching Labour so any sense of direction and structure from the party will probably bounce them over the top. Plus the voters who left them will likely come back if Corbyn looks to stand a chance of getting into No 10.

What's interesting is his seat, Uxbridge. If (let's face it when) he comes PM then Labour might well focus on it. He has a decent majority at 10% but if there are many Tory > Lib Dem defections then it becomes a contested seat. London + increase in young voters there + Brexit might make it a contest albeit a long shot.

Labour experimented with decapitation in 2015, piled a ton of resources into Sheffield Hallam and failed to beat Nick Clegg while also losing Ed Balls in Morley & Outwood, a seat that was at risk and which they should have made efforts to defend.

They may well be dumb enough to try, but parties that are serious about wining power target their resources at the seats needed for an overall majority, not on high profile scalps.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Damien

Johnson isn't the same character he was in the London Mayoral race these days though. A lot of people have already formed an opinion of him and he has become a bogeyman of sorts for Remain.

I think he would win a majority at the next election though but because of how unpopular Corbyn is. Even with the Tories in an utter state they're still largely matching Labour so any sense of direction and structure from the party will probably bounce them over the top. Plus the voters who left them will likely come back if Corbyn looks to stand a chance of getting into No 10.

What's interesting is his seat, Uxbridge. If (let's face it when) he comes PM then Labour might well focus on it. He has a decent majority at 10% but if there are many Tory > Lib Dem defections then it becomes a contested seat. London + increase in young voters there + Brexit might make it a contest albeit a long shot.

In case you haven't noticed, Boris is not aiming for 'remain' voters!

If he delivers the referendum result as he promises, he will win a lot of loyalty from the electorate.

You underestimate the popularity of Boris with younger voters, and when they come to realise the Brexit was not the disaster they were led to believe it would be, even more will come over to him.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

In case you haven't noticed, Boris is not aiming for 'remain' voters!

No but the point is the wider appeal he had is gone in an electorate which is heavily fractured by the referendum result.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You underestimate the popularity of Boris with younger voters, and when they come to realise the Brexit was not the disaster they were led to believe it would be, even more will come over to him.

Just how popular do you think Boris Johnson is with younger voters?

---------- Post added at 14:14 ---------- Previous post was at 14:08 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Labour experimented with decapitation in 2015, piled a ton of resources into Sheffield Hallam and failed to beat Nick Clegg while also losing Ed Balls in Morley & Outwood, a seat that was at risk and which they should have made efforts to defend.

They may well be dumb enough to try, but parties that are serious about wining power target their resources at the seats needed for an overall majority, not on high profile scalps.

Their own internal polling will likely inform if they go for it. It'll depend how strong they think the Liberal Democrats will be in Uxbridge, if it's strong enough to peel off enough pro-European liberal Tories they might try. It'll depend how Boris Johnson handles Brexit IMO. If he goes for no deal they I think the seat will be in play.

Labour are better in their on the ground campaigning since 2015. It was part of their success in 2017.

[denphone]

The ages groups and to which percentage vote for the Conservative and Labour party.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol...and-old-voters

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ty-age-voters/

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/t...arty-wxtgn6c25

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by denphone

The ages groups and to which percentage vote for the Conservative and Labour party.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol...and-old-voters

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ty-age-voters/

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/t...arty-wxtgn6c25

I don't disagree, but that's a Conservative Party with Theresa May in charge.

Bring Boris in and that will really become a party!

[denphone]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I don't disagree, but that's a Conservative Party with Theresa May in charge.

Bring Boris in and that will really become a party!

Having a different leader won't change the age demographic of Conservative voters...

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by denphone

Having a different leader won't change the age demographic of Conservative voters...

Judging by his new partner, Boris seems to be appealing to a younger demographic already.

Hey, let’s introduce some hard data into the discussion.

This is how the candidates are viewed by party members, likely Tory voters and the public at large.



https://order-order.com/2019/06/17/5...e-poor-leader/

The general public don't know who some of them are. I imagine the 'lesser' names will have high numbers of 'Don't Know' in their polling who are filtered out. Gove and Stewart ratings are technically less than Corbyn there.