VOD : Netflix/Streaming Services

[Mad Max]

Why wait til the next day because I have an inherent unexplainable preference to stream it?

There are probably numerous reasons why some people prefer to stream/catch up a show, workers on different shifts spring to mind, we ain't all slaves to the tv schedules!

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

There are probably numerous reasons why some people prefer to stream/catch up a show, workers on different shifts spring to mind, we ain't all slaves to the tv schedules!

I’m not saying everyone will. Of course, having broadcast, on demand/streaming options and a PVR gives maximum flexibility.

In my example 9pm Sunday is convenient timing.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Raider999

Announced the other morning on BBC1 News.

Almost half of households have access to at least 1 stream provider.

However, 66% of all programmes watched are via linear channels.

Conclusion, people are dabbling with streamers but continue to watch 2/3 of their tv on linear channels.

Hardly the death of linear channels at present.

Nobody has said anywhere that linear channels will die off right now. If you look at the trends in viewing streaming, which is increasing fast, and viewing traditional channels, which is reducing rapidly, you can see where this is leading. But the whole process is likely to take more than a decade.

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Originally Posted by denphone

Correct as most tend to have streaming as a add on to their normal TV viewing.

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And unlikely to change well into the future.

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Correct..

And that will remain the case as the streaming boom flatlines.

Look at the trend, Den, and tell me why you think this is insignificant. The truth is, people are turning to streaming in big numbers while traditional channels are in decline. You cannot, with any credibility, ignore that.

[jfman]

You’re not really one to throw the credibility accusation around Old Boy.

You’ve not demonstrated how streaming gets to 100%, or at least so high linear ceases to be viable (bearing in mind it’s the content that costs money, not the broadcast itself).

People who “turn to streaming” still watch linear television. In their droves. People with the technology to abandon linear still watch it. If PVRs can’t kill linear, why will streaming?

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by jfman

A big roll of the dice considering its precarious situation. Still, as long as the shareholders sell before the crash they'll be fine.

I think most other companies would die for Netflix's "precarious" situation of having over 151m customers.

[jfman]

I don't think they'd die for the debt. Maybe with it though.

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by jfman

I don't think they'd die for the debt. Maybe with it though.

You are full of quotes about economics, but the reality is 151 million customers, i'm sure the big business guys know a wee bit more than you do about how to run their business!

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

You are full of quotes about economics, but the reality is 151 million customers, i'm sure the big business guys know a wee bit more than you do about how to run their business!

This was a giant in its day but father time decided to call on it so never say it won't happen because things do happen as history shows us that it can happen..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockbuster_LLC

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

You are full of quotes about economics, but the reality is 151 million customers, i'm sure the big business guys know a wee bit more than you do about how to run their business!

I’m sure the guys at Enron knew more than me too.

151 million customers is a lot, but they’re low value, highly price elastic customers. It’s a low cost add on for many. As Old Boy is always keen to point out many big players are about to enter this space and Netflix capability to withstand this is entirely untested.

With $20bn of debt, or about three years of revenue alone, I’d not be hugely enthusiastic at the minute and the recent dip in their share price reflects lower confidence among investors.

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by jfman

I don't think they'd die for the debt. Maybe with it though.

Loads of companies have debt. AT&T has tons of it, but like Netflix, has the revenues to service that debt otherwise the markets wouldn't lend.

We've discussed this before, the critical point for the company is probably in around two years time when they start pivoting away from pumping money into content and start to balance their books. At the moment, that debt is helping to fund more content which in turn is helping to fund growth and there is no sign, yet, that growth is slowing, at least internationally.

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Originally Posted by jfman

I’m sure the guys at Enron knew more than me too.

151 million customers is a lot, but they’re low value, highly price elastic customers. It’s a low cost add on for many. As Old Boy is always keen to point out many big players are about to enter this space and Netflix capability to withstand this is entirely untested.

With $20bn of debt, or about three years of revenue alone, I’d not be hugely enthusiastic at the minute and the recent dip in their share price reflects lower confidence among investors.

The whole market was down and may go down more, substantially more, but that is short term.

On low value customers, they're about to get more! They're launching a mobile only tier in India for a few dollars, so that's very low value. But add up how many Indian mobile customers there are.... the pennies add up.

On other streamers, again been through this all before. As far as internationally, most of these services won't be launching for at least a year and then it will take at least another year before we see what kind of impact, if any, the new streamers have on Netflix. At that time Netflix will likely then have 200m+ customers.

[jfman]

Impact “if any”? I think given how this content is supposed to revolutionise the market it’s impossible to say it’ll have no impact on Netflix.

Only Disney and others will have a major benefit of their own huge back catalogues at their disposal. Content owners can field at a price point that doesn’t have to service $20bn of debt as well.

Even if the technology works, Netflix fundamentally doesn’t in the long term. Optimistic growth forecasts will go unrealised and how to monetise a customer base who don’t particularly value your product anyway will be a massive challenge.

Even if it’s two years before the squeeze - Netflix are still going to be under a huge mountain of debt as they increase their costs due to the competition threat.

[Horizon]

Ok. I get it that you think Netflix's future is dire. Somewhere earlier in this thread, that was my opinion too, but their customers and share price kept rising and that changed my opinion. When/if the facts change, so will my opinion. So for now, I disagree with you that their growth forecasts will go unrealised. That has not been the case up to now and I don't think it will be for years to come.

To use Netflix's own quote, "we have to become HBO faster than HBO can become us," and that is exactly what Netflix is doing. Of course Disney (and the others) has an inbuilt advantage. It owns 30-40% of all Hollywood content and why is that? Why did Murdoch sell off to Disney? It was because of Netflix and the fact that they've turned an entire industry upside down.

None of us will know what will happen in the next few years, perhaps Netflix will collapse, perhaps they'll stay king. Perhaps they'll be bought out by someone like Apple, or perhaps they'll be the buyer of someone like Lionsgate, but with a still growing customer base, it will take Disney and others many years to catch them and thus I think predictions of Netflix's demise are premature.

Originally Posted by jfman

People with the technology to abandon linear still watch it. If PVRs can’t kill linear, why will streaming?

How would a PVR ever kill it ? You need the broadcast for the PVR to be able to record it - kill the broadcast and your PVR is just a large paper weight.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Paul M

How would a PVR ever kill it ? You need the broadcast for the PVR to be able to record it - kill the broadcast and your PVR is just a large paper weight.

However the viewer doesn’t have to work to the schedule. They can series link, binge, timeshift, use catch up and on demand until their heart is content.

The evidence suggests people use all different types of consuming content - and I don’t see why that won’t continue.

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by Horizon

Ok. I get it that you think Netflix's future is dire. Somewhere earlier in this thread, that was my opinion too, but their customers and share price kept rising and that changed my opinion. When/if the facts change, so will my opinion. So for now, I disagree with you that their growth forecasts will go unrealised. That has not been the case up to now and I don't think it will be for years to come.

To use Netflix's own quote, "we have to become HBO faster than HBO can become us," and that is exactly what Netflix is doing. Of course Disney (and the others) has an inbuilt advantage. It owns 30-40% of all Hollywood content and why is that? Why did Murdoch sell off to Disney? It was because of Netflix and the fact that they've turned an entire industry upside down.

None of us will know what will happen in the next few years, perhaps Netflix will collapse, perhaps they'll stay king. Perhaps they'll be bought out by someone like Apple, or perhaps they'll be the buyer of someone like Lionsgate, but with a still growing customer base, it will take Disney and others many years to catch them and thus I think predictions of Netflix's demise are premature.

Very good post.....

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Originally Posted by denphone

This was a giant in its day but father time decided to call on it so never say it won't happen because things do happen as history shows us that it can happen..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockbuster_LLC

That's exactly what you have been saying about streaming, Den!