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Leading expert says issue of long COVID 'slightly overblown'
Some more now from Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, who's been giving his thoughts on the pandemic today.
He said he believed the issue of long COVID "has been slightly overblown", with "proper epidemiological studies" finding the incidence of it is "much lower than people had anticipated".
Sir John told Times Radio he agreed with England's chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, that the vast majority of children would get infected without a jab.
But he added there are "no bad consequences" in children with COVID and "I don't think there's any reason to panic".
He said: "I don't think we're going to have a lot of children in intensive care units. And in fact, the evidence is we don't, we never have."
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I always question the credibility of people who contradict themselves within a mere few sentences.
“No bad consequences”. Makes a great headline. Clear. Definitive. Absolute.
“I don't think” feature twice in the follow up. Speculation. Guesswork.
“a lot of children” subjective.
“is quite small” subjective and sounds very likely to be non-zero. Quite a climbdown from “no bad consequences”.
What he means to say is there’s some bad consequences but as long as the coin keeps coming in for saying the right things at the right time he thinks that’s a price worth paying.
Since there are 13 million under-16s in the U.K., ”quite small" could be "quite a lot"…
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Re: Coronavirus
Professor Chris Witty reckons half of children have already had it:
Seeing as they're not queueing round the block to get into ICU suggests that the effects are mild.
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Since there are 13 million under-16s in the U.K., ”quite small" could be "quite a lot"…
or it could be 6,but what does he know he's only a leading expert.
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To be or not to be, woke is the question Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer. The slings and arrows of outrageous wokedome, Or to take arms against a sea of wokies. And by opposing end them.
I always question the credibility of people who contradict themselves within a mere few sentences.
“No bad consequences”. Makes a great headline. Clear. Definitive. Absolute.
“I don't think” feature twice in the follow up. Speculation. Guesswork.
“a lot of children” subjective.
“is quite small” subjective and sounds very likely to be non-zero. Quite a climbdown from “no bad consequences”.
What he means to say is there’s some bad consequences but as long as the coin keeps coming in for saying the right things at the right time he thinks that’s a price worth paying.
You are far too word-pedantic, jfman. I’d stick to ranting about ‘linear’ if I were you.
The number of children who even know they’ve had Covid is vanishingly small. Nothing to see here, let’s move on.
---------- Post added at 15:01 ---------- Previous post was at 15:00 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by heero_yuy
Professor Chris Witty reckons half of children have already had it:
Seeing as they're not queueing round the block to get into ICU suggests that the effects are mild.
Leading expert says issue of long COVID 'slightly overblown'
Some more now from Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, who's been giving his thoughts on the pandemic today.
He said he believed the issue of long COVID "has been slightly overblown", with "proper epidemiological studies" finding the incidence of it is "much lower than people had anticipated".
Sir John told Times Radio he agreed with England's chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, that the vast majority of children would get infected without a jab.
But he added there are "no bad consequences" in children with COVID and "I don't think there's any reason to panic".
He said: "I don't think we're going to have a lot of children in intensive care units. And in fact, the evidence is we don't, we never have."
As others have said, there are some words doing some heavy lifting there that don't inspire confidence. It also assumes that the sole reason to vaccinate children is to stop them getting ill which is not necessarily the case. Yes, it stops kids getting sick, it may also lower the number of kids being kept at home due to positive test but most importantly, it will lower the chances of infecting those that will get seriously ill if they get it.
That's a decision we have had to make in our house. My mother (in her mid-70s) lives at the other end of the country and we have not seen her in real life for getting on for two years. She's double jabbed and so am I and my wife but the kids weren't and the infection rate in kids is pretty high. Knowing that they will get the jab next week gives me the confidence that the chance of giving her COVID that sneaks past her vaccination is much lower. It's the old 'Swiss cheese' for lowering risk. Getting the kids vaccinated adds another layer of 'cheese'.
This was also how I sold the vaccination to my kids. One hates jabs but lowering the risk of infecting their nan was incentive enough. I also used the example of HPV jabs for boys as they are of that age. My two are girls who really need the HPV jab. Boys don't, they get warts, not cervical cancer but jabbing boys lowers the risk for girls on top of their own jabs.
I’ll stick to jonbxx and others insights on this subject as opposed to your Covid denialism.
I have never denied Covid exists, and I think it is now clear to most people with their eyes open that immunisation by infection is the only way we are going to rid ourselves of this disease.
Fortunately, we now have vaccines, which enable most of us to acquire the infection without major ill effects. Infection provides a so much better immune response than vaccination alone, and it lasts longer.
Ultimately, there is a prospect that this virus will die naturally as long as we don’t actually stop the virus from infecting people. That is why further lockdowns would do more harm than good.
I have never denied Covid exists, and I think it is now clear to most people with their eyes open that immunisation by infection is the only way we are going to rid ourselves of this disease.
Fortunately, we now have vaccines, which enable most of us to acquire the infection without major ill effects. Infection provides a so much better immune response than vaccination alone, and it lasts longer.
Ultimately, there is a prospect that this virus will die naturally as long as we don’t actually stop the virus from infecting people. That is why further lockdowns would do more harm than good.
Anything to add on the substantive point OB or is it Friday night and you are just bored? Was I being pedantic or offering reasonable comment?
Last edited by Paul; 25-09-2021 at 02:01.
Reason: You are bordering on another rest from this topic
I have never denied Covid exists, and I think it is now clear to most people with their eyes open that immunisation by infection is the only way we are going to rid ourselves of this disease.
Fortunately, we now have vaccines, which enable most of us to acquire the infection without major ill effects. Infection provides a so much better immune response than vaccination alone, and it lasts longer.
Ultimately, there is a prospect that this virus will die naturally as long as we don’t actually stop the virus from infecting people. That is why further lockdowns would do more harm than good.
According to the British Society for Immunology, that statement is not true.
If you've had COVID-19 before, does your natural immunity work better than a vaccine?
The data is clear: Natural immunity is not better. The COVID-19 vaccines create more effective and longer-lasting immunity than natural immunity from infection.
More than a third of COVID-19 infections result in zero protective antibodies
Natural immunity fades faster than vaccine immunity
Natural immunity alone is less than half as effective than natural immunity plus vaccination..
… Natural immunity fades more quickly than vaccine immunity
Natural immunity can decay within about 90 days. Immunity from COVID-19 vaccines has been shown to last longer. Both Pfizer and Moderna reported strong vaccine protection for at least six months.
Studies are ongoing to evaluate the full duration of protective immunity, including the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
Real-world studies also indicate natural immunity's short life. For example, 65% of people with a lower baseline antibody from infection to begin with completely lost their COVID-19 antibodies by 60 days.
What about that Israeli study suggesting natural immunity is stronger? Infectious diseases expert James Lawler, MD, MPH, FIDSA, carefully evaluates the study design of the retrospective Maccabi Health System study in his Aug. 31 briefing. In the briefing, he identifies two concerning sources of error that were not corrected for: survivorship bias and selection bias.
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If only we’re brave enough to see it.
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